My pick is almost up in the fourth round and Kerry Wood is left. I have decided I like Wood more than Mulder (at this point.) That said, is Wood, with his injury history, worth the 2nd pick in the fourth round of a 14 team head v head 6x6 (holds, OPS) league? I currently do not have a pitcher.
I have changed my mind on Kerry Wood. Doing a simple age-linear regression equation, here are the predictions on Mark Mulder
19-8, 3.55 ERA, 157K, 1.18 WHIP
10-11, 3.48 ERA, 193K, 1.24 WHIP
I like linear regression equations because they really hurt players who get injured and allow for player development or regression based on their entire career. Three year averages don't take into consideration those things.
I think I'm going to take Mulder. Playing for the Cardinals does not hurt either.
I'd probably still go with Wood for the k's. He gets decent enough ratios, and one of these days he might put all that together. But you can aalways count on him for k's. sure he was hurt last year, but they were careful with him and he can strike guys out. I'd take wood at 4.2.
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OTOH, Wood pitches TO the Cardinals and Mulder pitches FOR the Cardinals, which is probably worth a few points in Mulder's favor. Wood seems to be either 'on', in which case he's a monster, or 'off', in which case he's ok. I didn't catch many A's games last year though so I'm not as sure re Mulder's 'stuff'...
It is anyone's guess what he will do... He really hasn't progressed as most people expected him to. Still a big K pitcher but he loses control far too often.
I expected big things from him in 04 but instead he was inconsistent again and missed some time with an injury.
Personally, I think there are a lot safer choices that you can pick later in the draft. Dusty will always be Dusty as long as he is the manager and continue to abuse these young pitchers. The risk of injury while pitching under him alone will make me stay far away.
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