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Excel spreadsheet formula anyone? - Last bit of help needed.

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Postby Cooner » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:45 pm

on another note, i don't think i like doing this by standard deviation... the problem is that there are some guys who are just extreme outliers in one catagory, and that makes them the best player ever.

Really it's just Barry Bonds: my league counts OPS, and his OPS puts him 6 standard deviations from the mean starter in my league. Keep in mind that the best player has a total of 12 standard deviations for all 6 catagories we count. It's disgusting. I'm not really sure if this makes sense or not....
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:46 pm

Dave,

Morneau's homeruns are worth more (when it comes to looking at them as a representative of talent for 2005) than Durazo's. However, I think this is due to discrepancies in potential opposed to differences in the raw statistics. For the homeruns per season weigh the same, no matter how they are distributed.

You could play with your formulas, but I think this makes things too complicated, as a typical starter gets enough at bats to give adequate data to recognize performance trends and at bats would be tough to project.

If you are coming up with a points total based on deviations from the mean, why not merely amend this data with independent variables such as “top prospect”? You could then use the raw data for what it is worth, amending situations where you feel the numbers do not tell the whole story.
Mike Pelfrey > Matt Garza
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:38 am

My league uses TQSTATS and at the end of last season, I printed out all the $$ value numbers and point totals for the players in my league based on all of our specifics: stat categories, number of players per team, number of teams, etc. It's from Rototimes.

Then, for the next season, I figure out how they come up with their point totals for each player and create the formulas for each statistic in Excel. I don't bother with dollar values because it isn't an auction league, I use the point totals.

Now that I have the formulas that worked for the previous year, I plug in projections for the upcoming season and calcluate a total point value for each player. For the projections, so far this off-season, I've collected projections from the Bill James Handbook, Forecaster, Rototimes, RotoChamps, ZiPS (Baseball Think Factory) and PECOTA. It gets a little crazy having 6 sets of projections for each player, so in Excel, I have different worksheets for each position and I'll have the players '04 stats in one row, and the 6 projections in the next 6 rows. That's where I'm at right now. We won't draft until March 1, so I'll spend the next few weeks coming up with what I feel is a good projection, based on the 6 different projections I have now. Then I use the formulas for last year and each player will have a point total for '05.

Early in the draft, I'll go by overall point total while the big number guys are up there, and at some point I'll start looking at position scarcity. For position scarcity, I'll take the top 10 at each position (the # of teams in our league) and find the mean point total. Then each player will be ranked by how far above (or below) the mean they are.

During the actual draft, though, as most people know, you're making decisions on the fly. You have all your numbers and you know what you want to do, but you have to make decisions at times that are hard to make. Then it's just gut instinct, I think.
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