What do you see in the future of Calvin Pickering? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

What do you see in the future of Calvin Pickering?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 05, 2005 9:54 am

Tavish wrote:Sure he still had the higher OPS, but the difference between the two is very small. A much higher portion of Pickering's OPS is generated from walks (as opposed to Harvey's), he generates a much higher amount of unproductive outs, and he creates a great deal higher amount of extra outs through his "ability" to ground into double plays. I'm not in any way claiming Harvey is better than Pickering, Harvey's second half slide was as frustrating as Pickering's slide. But Pickering wasn't more productive than Harvey, and most definitely not as productive overall as his final season stats show.


I agree that the difference is small, IF you bias the analysis against Pickering by not counting his best game. If you look at all their games or if you similarly remove a proportional sample of Harvey's best games, then once again there is a very large advantage for Pickering. On a fair playing field, in short, Pickering stomps Harvey's butt. The only way you can turn the analysis against Pickering is by unfairly ignoring a portion of his production while counting all of Harvey's.

That's clearly shown by the stats I posted.
A 79 point advantage in OPS is not "very small"
A 21 point advantage in EQA is not "very small"
A 12 point advantage in RARP per 500 ABs is not "very small"

You know what Harvey can do. He's going to hit for a high, but very empty average because he has no plate discipline and has no power.

Pickering will certainly ground into DPs, but unproductive outs is a load of BS. It contributes NOTHING to offense, as reams and reams of analysis as shown.

Pickering will hit for no less an OBP than Harvey, and there's a very good chance based on his past performance, that given a regular opportunity to hit, he could nearly match Harvey in BA and trounce him in OBP.

And there's simply no comparison between them in ability to hit for power.

Harvey was given 500 PAs last year and he ranked THIRTY-SECOND among all 1B in RARP. (that's last, in case that new math you are using decides to re-surface).

With that wonderful display of hitting ineptitude, what does KC have to lose in giving Pickering the chance to prove himself better?
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Tavish » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:04 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I agree that the difference is small, IF you bias the analysis against Pickering by not counting his best game. If you look at all their games or if you similarly remove a proportional sample of Harvey's best games, then once again there is a very large advantage for Pickering. On a fair playing field, in short, Pickering stomps Harvey's butt. The only way you can turn the analysis against Pickering is by unfairly ignoring a portion of his production while counting all of Harvey's.


Unfortunately the two don't have a fair playing field. Harvey played more than three times the number of games. According to new math, that makes for a better sample size than playing 35 games. It took major league pitching less than a week to adjust to Pickering and realize that he can't hit a breaking ball. The only way to make Pickering appear any better than Harvey is to use a very small sample size that is heavily influenced by his first two ABs. The next 140 PA are just a side note I guess.

It comes down to what you have more faith in I guess. I could remove 30 of Harvey's AB and get the same dropoff that Pickering has by removing his first two. I tend to put more faith in 30 AB than in 2.

Pickering will certainly ground into DPs, but unproductive outs is a load of BS. It contributes NOTHING to offense, as reams and reams of analysis as shown.


Bad choice of words on my part. I'm not speaking in terms of the SABRe-defined Productive Outs. Nobody is expecting Pickering or Harvey to lay down a bunt with nobody out to advance a runner on first. Every out event has a different value. A large portion of Pickering's outs are made in the two most unproductive manners, a strikeout and a a GIDP (excluding the GITP). Harvey and Pickering failed to reach base at the same rate. How they failed to reach base does have value. Reams and reams of analysis has shown that.

Pickering will hit for no less an OBP than Harvey, and there's a very good chance based on his past performance, that given a regular opportunity to hit, he could nearly match Harvey in BA and trounce him in OBP.


I haven't even mentioned the future because I don't really think either one will ever be more than an average major league player. I'm simply stating that based on last year their wasn't much difference between their performances and that neither one was in the same class as Sweeney.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11070
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:17 pm

Tavish wrote:Unfortunately the two don't have a fair playing field. Harvey played more than three times the number of games. According to new math, that makes for a better sample size than playing 35 games. It took major league pitching less than a week to adjust to Pickering and realize that he can't hit a breaking ball. The only way to make Pickering appear any better than Harvey is to use a very small sample size that is heavily influenced by his first two ABs. The next 140 PA are just a side note I guess.

It comes down to what you have more faith in I guess. I could remove 30 of Harvey's AB and get the same dropoff that Pickering has by removing his first two. I tend to put more faith in 30 AB than in 2.



I agree that there is a wider error around Pickering's performance, but where I think you are wrong is that I believe this strengthens the argument for Pickering.

Frankly, you know with 99.99% certainty that Harvey is stanktastic. The error around his rank as a 1B might be five places. In other words, he might finish this year somewhere between the 27th best first baseman or the 37th best firstbaseman.

Our best point estimate for Pickering is based on his performance throughout his career. Overall in 279 PAs, his OPS is 789 (including PAs at age 21 and 22). His two most recent years his OPS was .834 and .838. Now, I think you can make a good case that now, at his peak age, Pickering's point estimate for OPS would be in the .825-.850 range, if not higher. But, even if you use his career numbers or his "Tavish adjusted" numbers, his point estimate is in the .750 to .800. The first puts him in Sweeney territory, ranked about the 20th best. The latter puts him in Harvey area, ranked about the 30th best.

But, we agree that his rank deviation is probably larger, so let's say it's ten ranks, compared to Harvey's five.

If I'm right on his point estimate, then he could be anywhere from the 10th to the 30th best hitter at 1B.
If you're right he could be anywhere from the 20th to the 40th best hitter at 1B.

So, you tell me. Do you want to take the certainty of Harvey's lousy play over the outside chance that Pickering could be as good as Sweeney or even better? What's the downside risk here? Take the best case scenario for Harvey. Does it really matter if Harvey turns out to be the 27th best hitter and Pickering turns out to be the 40th best?

Tavish wrote:Bad choice of words on my part. I'm not speaking in terms of the SABRe-defined Productive Outs. Nobody is expecting Pickering or Harvey to lay down a bunt with nobody out to advance a runner on first. Every out event has a different value. A large portion of Pickering's outs are made in the two most unproductive manners, a strikeout and a a GIDP (excluding the GITP). Harvey and Pickering failed to reach base at the same rate. How they failed to reach base does have value. Reams and reams of analysis has shown that.


Yes, but the summary stats I posted take those into account in valuing players. Harvey's tiny advantage there is more than offset by Pickering's power.

Tavish wrote:I haven't even mentioned the future because I don't really think either one will ever be more than an average major league player. I'm simply stating that based on last year their wasn't much difference between their performances and that neither one was in the same class as Sweeney.


And the ONLY way you can get to that conclusion is to by ignoring Pickering's best game, and counting those of Harvey and Sweeney, simply based on your unsubstantiated claim that pitchers had figured out Pickering. You know that there is absolutely no way to defend that claim based on the numbers, because variation like we saw in Pickering occurs all the time in baseball. You might believe that it was due to "pitchers figuring him out", but there's no way to prove that claim. So, yes, I agree that if you bias the analysis against Pickering he was only slightly better than harvey and not as good as Sweeney.

But that's not true if you fairly compare the three.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Bozo » Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:32 pm

I went to an Omaha game last year and ended up chatting with a player not in uniform that day. He send that what was holding Big Cal back was that he is an absolute headcase, can rake with the best of them but seems like he's from another planet.
Bozo
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 367
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:01 pm

Bozo wrote:I went to an Omaha game last year and ended up chatting with a player not in uniform that day. He send that what was holding Big Cal back was that he is an absolute headcase, can rake with the best of them but seems like he's from another planet.


Well, if you know his history, you can hardly blame him. He basically posted the best stats in the Oriole minor leagues since Eddie Murray from the late 1970s. His "reward" was simply a constant barrage of criticism no matter how well he played and no reasonable opportunity to prove himself in the show.

How many of us could get that close to our dream (and a potential multi-million dollar payday), only to watch it slip away because of what can only be described as one of the stupidest front offices in the history of baseball, without becoming a bit of a head case?
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 06, 2005 10:23 am

Baseball Prospectus "weighs in" on Big Cal:

"Calvinist Theology: One of the most interesting developments of last season was the play of Calvin Pickering, the much traveled, and monstrous (6'5, 278 lbs.), first baseman/DH. Pickering is something of an enigma; after having collected just 81 professional ABs from 2002-2003, Pickering caught on with Kansas City in '04 and absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League while at Omaha. In 299 at-bats, Pickering put up a Bondsian .712 slugging percentage by hitting 35 home runs, and then continued his barrage in Kansas City, hitting .246/.338/.500 with seven homers in 122 ABs. PECOTA thinks Pickering, who will still be just 28 in 2005, is for real. Here's his 2005 projection:


AB HR AVG OBP SLG VORP
337 24 .272 .400 .543 36.6

PECOTA tabs Pickering as the 2005 Royals' offensive MVP. It's doubtful that he will get enough at bats to claim that honor, however. Chronically injured Mike Sweeney, signed to a huge deal, is lodged in the DH slot, and the team is way too high on Ken Harvey at first base. Sweeney, an inferior defender, has been making things difficult for Royals' management recently, demanding that he play first base regularly or be dealt. The situation could be a blessing in disguise for Kansas City, however, for the team would be better off trading Sweeney for a few prospects and playing Pickering every day at DH.

That would also solve the problem of finding an expendable member of Kansas City management to break the news to Pickering that he is still without a starting job. Our suggestion? Humor Calvin by offering him exclusive first dibs to all 2005 post-game spreads. "
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby mcqfesijiba » Sun Feb 06, 2005 10:50 am

The Royals don't have much to lose, so they may as well do what it takes to play all three of them. They could stick Harvey in the OF, and expect some horrible defense, but at least they would have one less outmaker in the lineup (ie. Abraham Nunez). Too bad Harvey can't play 3B, as they're stuck with Chris Truby/Denny Hocking or whatever until Mark Teahen gets the call.

At the very least they shouldn't just hand the 1B job to Harvey. Make him earn it. Whatever the case, it looks like Pickering's getting the shaft.
mcqfesijiba
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1664
Joined: 31 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Detroit, MI

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 06, 2005 11:19 am

Probably the best idea would be to combine Sweeney, Harvey and Pickering, Marrero in a platoon DH/1B platoon, since Harvey and Marrero do hit lefties pretty well and Pickering and Sweeney both could have durability/defense problems and hit righties much better. Give Harvey and Marrero significant ABs against lefties and a late inning defensive role and you can probably put together a DH/1B platoon that has an over .900 OPS.

Harvey vs. lefties .306/.347/.489/.836
Pickering vs. righties .265/.389/.550/.949
Sweeney vs righties .317/.398/.530/.928
Marrero vs. lefties .314/.384/.502/.886
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Oct. 22
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Kansas City
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact