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What do you see in the future of Calvin Pickering?

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What do you see in the future of Calvin Pickering?

Postby crapshooter » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:33 pm

Calvin was very impressive when he first came up last year but cooled off when the league caught up with him.. What do you see for him this season?
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Postby ukjohn » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:34 pm

he's a 4A player
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:36 pm

Well, apparently Sweeney wants out according to what has been reported... If that is the case, Pickering's value goes through the roof. Even if Sweeney is not moved he will barely get over 400 ABs so he should get some PT at DH and 1B (not sure he is built to roam the OF). I think 300 ABs and 15-20 HRs is a possibility.
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Postby bleach168 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:38 pm

I foresee a lot of french fries and doughnuts.
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Postby BigLebowski » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:39 pm

Yoda wrote:Well, apparently Sweeney wants out according to what has been reported... If that is the case, Pickering's value goes through the roof. Even if Sweeney is not moved he will barely get over 400 ABs so he should get some PT at DH and 1B (not sure he is built to roam the OF). I think 300 ABs and 15-20 HRs is a possibility.


I don"t know about through the roof but he could be a servicable two to four dollar player if that is so
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:42 pm

He weighs 270 pounds, I don't think he'll be roaming the outfield.

And as for his potential :-? I guess it's there, but he's never shown much in the majors. And being on the Royals (possibly the worst situation any hitter could be in) will hurt him a lot. All he does is walk and hit HR's, and the walks won't help in fantasy, and Kauffman will severely cut down on his HR's. I wouldn't expect a lot, and wouldn't give up anything significant to get him. He had a great year in AAA but he's been a career minor leaguer and he's old enough that the AAA stats don't mean as much, even though it was the IL, not the PCL.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:47 pm

BigLebowski wrote:
Yoda wrote:Well, apparently Sweeney wants out according to what has been reported... If that is the case, Pickering's value goes through the roof. Even if Sweeney is not moved he will barely get over 400 ABs so he should get some PT at DH and 1B (not sure he is built to roam the OF). I think 300 ABs and 15-20 HRs is a possibility.


I don"t know about through the roof but he could be a servicable two to four dollar player if that is so


PT is a HUGE factor for fantasy baseball. A lot of these players, all they need is a chance. A difference of 150-200 ABs in fantasy baseball more often than not results in waiver trash becoming a starter.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:19 pm

LBJackal wrote:And as for his potential :-? I guess it's there, but he's never shown much in the majors. And being on the Royals (possibly the worst situation any hitter could be in) will hurt him a lot. All he does is walk and hit HR's, and the walks won't help in fantasy, and Kauffman will severely cut down on his HR's. I wouldn't expect a lot, and wouldn't give up anything significant to get him. He had a great year in AAA but he's been a career minor leaguer and he's old enough that the AAA stats don't mean as much, even though it was the IL, not the PCL.


That's simply not a defensible statement. I'll use OPS+ as a summary stat. At age 21, the Orioles gave him 21 ABs. His OPS+ was 21 percent better than league average. At age 22, they gave him another 40 ABs, and this time he really struggled, posting a lousy .125 batting average. However, those ABs were spread out over close to 15 weeks, as the Orioles would play him for a game, sit him for a week. At age 24, Boston and Cincy gave him another 21 ABs, and he again performed about 20% better than league average. Last year, KC gave him 122 ABs and he again performed 20% better than league average.

So, in short, he's hit well in the majors three of the four times he was given a chance, and the one time he failed was in a situation that many players fail at. He's been a career minor leaguer for the same reasons Ruby Durazo was a career minor leaguer and David Ortiz was a career back-up---not because of lack of talent, but because of the fact that no one was willing to give him an opportunity.

I have ZERO doubt that if someone would give Pickering the same chance those two players did, he would post similar numbers.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:31 pm

21 AB's? 40 AB's? And MY position isn't defensible?

I agree he's been very good in the minors (why he wasn't given a shot after his great 2001 I really don't know) but he hasn't had much major league success at all. And we don't count OBA in most fantasy leagues, it's BA. And he isn't strong in BA (only .280 in the minors, and he's had lots of timem to get used to the minors). Throw in Kauffman's ability to kill HR's, which is pretty much the only way he gets hits, and then factor in he has NOBODY on the team to hit him in to utilize his ability to draw a walk, and I don't think he'll do much.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:38 am

LBJackal wrote:21 AB's? 40 AB's? And MY position isn't defensible?

I agree he's been very good in the minors (why he wasn't given a shot after his great 2001 I really don't know) but he hasn't had much major league success at all. And we don't count OBA in most fantasy leagues, it's BA. And he isn't strong in BA (only .280 in the minors, and he's had lots of timem to get used to the minors). Throw in Kauffman's ability to kill HR's, which is pretty much the only way he gets hits, and then factor in he has NOBODY on the team to hit him in to utilize his ability to draw a walk, and I don't think he'll do much.


I did not say your position was not defensible. I said your statement that he's "never shown much in the majors" was not defensible. Other than the 40 ABs in at age 22, he's performed at an above average level for a major league player. He's had major league success three of the four times he was given an opportunity.

Now if you had said that we really did not have enough information, but that he had played well in the majors in limited time, I'd agree. Or if you had said that he had done well, but fell short on some fantasy measures, I might agree.

But, to say that he has not had success in the majors when he has been given the chance is simply not consistent with the facts.

As for his BA, it was .281 in AAA, including .285 at age 22, .309 at age 21 in AA, and .311 at age 20 in A ball. All of those project to the ability to hit .290+ in the majors during peak age, where he is now.

I do agree with the park and team concerns. In short, we are probably closer in agreement on his fantasy value, but that should be separated from his true value in baseball. Pickering is probably the biggest mistake the Orioles made in the late 1990s, and considering some of the other ones they made, that's saying a lot.
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