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Mark Mulder...where does he go?

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Postby RynMan » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:48 pm

Thanks for the link Jackal, is very interesting. I still dont think I will be sold on the statisitical analysis of parks though.
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:03 am

Oakland PF:
Code: Select all
Year PF
1981 85
1982 90
1983 90
1984 83
1985 84
1986 86
1987 82
1988 88
1989 104
1990 77
1991 85
1992 95
1993 87
1994 81
1995 81
1996 104
1997 105
1998 85
1999 99
2000 91
2001 91
2002 103
2003 94
2004 101


It's been a little manic lately, but I still think it's a pitcher's park.
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:24 am

OK so Coors is a hitters park, Coliseum is a hitters park.

Petco is a pitchers park, Busch is a pitchers park.

You can't just generalise and say Coliseum or Busch is one or another. They are too neutral for that. Way too close to call one over the other. For so many reasons.

For every reason you tell me Busch is a pitchers park, I'll give you an example where it's not. Likewise with the Coliseum as a hitters park.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:27 am

New Zealand Fan wrote:OK so Coors is a hitters park, Coliseum is a hitters park.

Petco is a pitchers park, Busch is a pitchers park.

You can't just generalise and say Coliseum or Busch is one or another. They are too neutral for that. Way too close to call one over the other. For so many reasons.

For every reason you tell me Busch is a pitchers park, I'll give you an example where it's not. Likewise with the Coliseum as a hitters park.


I only said it was part of the reason Mulder will be in a better situation, along with run support and no DH. I wasn't implying it was Coors vs Petco or anything. There is a difference between the two parks, and last year it was a significant gap, especially in HR's. Don't make such a big deal about it.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:30 am

If you disregard his home ball park, what about his walk and strikeout rates both going in the wrong direction?
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Postby The Jury » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:34 am

jbones733 wrote:i think hes gonna be awesome, national league, much better ball club, bounce back season 20 is not out of the reach at all, only thing is poor k's if you can live w that hell be golden, hes too good


Everything here is exactly with my assessment of Mulder this year. He's one of those guys who eats up a ton of innings too.. him and Hudson really dined on innings during their stay in Oakland.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:47 am

His BB rate increased a lot, but he has kept it around 2 for the previous 3 seasons. Last season it was 3.31 - very uncharacteristic of him. However I think I was modest projecting him with 2.65 BB/9. I have his K rate going to about 6.5 despite his poor showing of 5.6 last season. The move to the NL alone should bring that up to about 6 even if he stayed at the same skill level (very unlikely), plus he should increase it because last year he ws clearly not himself. And his HR rate - the only other individual stat after BB and K rates I consider when doing my projections - has floated around .75 in a park that is slightly above neutral in terms allowing HR's. Now he's moving to a park that severely limits HR's, Busch Stadium, which is 4th best in the majors for limiting HR's. I predicted a drop from his usual .75 to about .70. That's not a very big drop at all considering the change that I'd predict if he hadn't had an off year. All that adds up to about a 3.39 ERA with 16 wins. And 16 wins is very good, considering 18 is about the most I would predict for any pitcher, bar none. Anything above that is usually due to lucky run support or lucky bullpen help.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:50 am

So because the collesium is a hitters park (technically), can Eric Chavez hit 40+ dingers this year?
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:55 am

LBJackal wrote:I only said it was part of the reason Mulder will be in a better situation, along with run support and no DH. I wasn't implying it was Coors vs Petco or anything. There is a difference between the two parks, and last year it was a significant gap, especially in HR's. Don't make such a big deal about it.


No, you said the Coliseum was a hitters park and Busch was a pitchers park. You say Busch gives up far fewer HR's than the Coliseum. So what. Busch gives up far more doubles than the Coliseum. That proves very little.

Far more relevant is the fact that there were more runs scored at Busch last season than the Coliseum. Hitters at Busch hit for a far higher average than at the Coliseum and that included pitchers.

Now to say Busch is a pitchers park and the Coliseum a hitters park, and then to use it to support a theory of why Mulder could do better this season, is simply wrong.
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Postby davidmarver » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:57 am

Eric Chavez = Incredibly overrated fantasy value.
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