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Second Tier arms... thoughts?

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:52 pm

Brendo wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Yoda and Thomas - you guys dont seem to be factoring in the fact that LA completely revamped their playing surface. LA is no longer a pitchers park.

As for Garcia - He had a 4.4ERA after the move to CHW. The switch from an extreme pitchers park to a pretty big hitters park took a serious toll on his numbers fellas. Good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but expecting an ERA under 4 is going to get you in trouble.


I've heard differing reports on this.

On another board it seemed that while they are making changes, there ius nothing drastically different about the dimensions or fould ground territory that has changed....
I don't know what is up, so do you have a link or a picture that says that the Ravine will be that much different

and even if there are changes, i'd find it hard to belive that cavern could somehow be considered a hitters park


Apparantly the foul ground territory is going to be drastically reduced. I would like to know by what %, but one of the main reasons Dodger stadium was such a friendly pitchers park to begin with was because of the large foul territory.

Dont get me wrong - Im not saying it will be a hitters park, but it will have a negative affect on their pitchers IMO.
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Postby Brendo » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:07 pm

agreed on the change, but until we know %, and where the % are different (by dugouts or down the line) it's too early to adjust values
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:12 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Brendo wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Yoda and Thomas - you guys dont seem to be factoring in the fact that LA completely revamped their playing surface. LA is no longer a pitchers park.

As for Garcia - He had a 4.4ERA after the move to CHW. The switch from an extreme pitchers park to a pretty big hitters park took a serious toll on his numbers fellas. Good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but expecting an ERA under 4 is going to get you in trouble.


I've heard differing reports on this.

On another board it seemed that while they are making changes, there ius nothing drastically different about the dimensions or fould ground territory that has changed....
I don't know what is up, so do you have a link or a picture that says that the Ravine will be that much different

and even if there are changes, i'd find it hard to belive that cavern could somehow be considered a hitters park


Apparantly the foul ground territory is going to be drastically reduced. I would like to know by what %, but one of the main reasons Dodger stadium was such a friendly pitchers park to begin with was because of the large foul territory.

Dont get me wrong - Im not saying it will be a hitters park, but it will have a negative affect on their pitchers IMO.


Regardless of the park, Oddie's away splits were not much worse than at home in 04. In fact, he had a lower ERA on away games than home games (this includes games at COL, AZ, etc). 03 he was terrible on away games but 02 was more like 04. Also, he is a groundball pitcher and unless they move in the fence, I don't think park configurations will affect his numbers that much.
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Postby SilentReader » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:52 pm

here's who i rank the sp's mentioned:

1.hudson
2.clemens
3.mulder
4.moose
5.halladay
6.garcia
7.pavano
8.burnett
9.sabathia
10.maddux
11.harden
12.beckett
13.smoltz
14.clement
15.odalis
16.escobar
17.penny
18.greinke
19.pettite
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:39 pm

SilentReader wrote:here's who i rank the sp's mentioned:

1.hudson
2.clemens
3.mulder
4.moose
5.halladay
6.garcia
7.pavano
8.burnett
9.sabathia
10.maddux
11.harden
12.beckett
13.smoltz
14.clement
15.odalis
16.escobar
17.penny
18.greinke
19.pettite


why would you rank Garcia that high? Check out his numbers after he was dealt to the WSox.
Why is Sabathia that high? His numbers dont suggest a ranking anywhere near that high - is there a reason to expect a large drop in %s?
Harden and Greinke are very very similar in value - at least according to the numbers and their expectations. There was a large thread on the two of them and comparisons between them a few weeks ago - its a good read. When price is factored in, Greinke is by far the better pick - half the cost for equal stats.
Beckett's ceiling alone puts him higher - I understand the injury risk, but thats just what it is - and players do get over injuries. As for ceiling he was considered about as good as Prior coming up.
Why is Smoltz ranked so low too? He's not any more of an injury risk than anyone else on that list, and he has great stuff. His %s are much lower than guys you have ranked above him.
As for the LA pitchers, Why would you rate Penny below the first two? Again, players who get injured become healthy, so the injury factor really isnt that much larger than the rest. Check out his splits once he got to LA - much better than the other two.

I dont mean to pick but I would like to hear an explanation to some of this stuff.

As for Odalis discussion earlier - I should probably rank him in that 2nd tier around Sabathia.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:43 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
As for Odalis discussion earlier - I should probably rank him in that 2nd tier around Sabathia.


Not sure about that... Oddie has two season where he posted an ERA under 3.30. K rate is about the same but BB is a HUGE edge to Oddie. He should be somewhere around the middle of the 2nd tier group.
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Postby Doc19 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 3:03 pm

Thank you for all input, guys; it was nice to see that I was somewhat in the ballpark...
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Postby pat1999 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 3:35 pm

io think it should look more like this

1.hudson
2.clemens
3.mulder
4.halladay
5.moose
6.burnett
7.pavano
8.penny
9.beckett
10.sabathia
11.oliver perez
12.maddux
13.smoltz
14.clement
15.grienke
16.harden
17.garcia
18.escobar
19.pettite
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Postby redsox588 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 4:28 pm

sabathia in front of oliver perez?
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Postby Pokeyouindaeye » Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:25 pm

I think that's supposed to be odalis.
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