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Second Tier arms... thoughts?

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Second Tier arms... thoughts?

Postby Doc19 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:36 am

Whats up fellas.

First, wanted to thank the cafe for being a truly invaluable source of information and insight. I first discovered the cafe over a year ago, and although I may not make a ton of posts, I am an avid reader... I must give the cafe credit as being a major reason why I won my 10-team 5x5 roto league last year. Lo's position rankings were especially helpful last year, and I look forward to having them finished and posted soon...

This past week I have spent a lot of time analyzing starting pitchers, and this year I was heavily influenced by K/9 and WHIP. I made a preliminary list; judging from many posts about the top 10-15 pitchers overall mixed leagues I feel fairly confident about the top tier pitchers... but when I look at my pitchers #17-26 I get a very queasy feeling, like I am way off base... I would appreciate it if y'all would take a peak at this short group of SP's and kindly rip apart my rankings... 5x5 roto, drafting from scratch every year. Thanx, and keep up the great work!

(leading up to these guys: Hudson, Clemens, Burnett, Mussina...)

Garcia
Clement
Smoltz
Beckett
Mulder
Harden
Escobar
Odal. Perez
Halladay
Penny

(Sabathia, Pettite, Pavano, Maddux, Greinke after that)
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:15 am

Halladay - A true Ace who just had a bad yr from fatigue last yr - he should top all lists.
Smoltz - Well, lets see what he can do as a SP again - he obviously has the stuff, but does he have the endurance?
Beckett - On the verge of greatness if he could ever control the blisters. Id argue he is the best pitcher on this list, but the injury issue knocks him down a few notches.
Mulder - I often see Mulder overrated, but not right now - the league switch and better support he will recieve are both positives that add to his value.

The top 4 could be mixed any way you want and should match the risk you are looking for: Beckett - highest risk, highest ceiling;

The next group is a small step below, but there is definitely a dropoff.

Harden - Lots of hype, but he is a solid youngster. He will still get lit up on occassion. His ceiling isnt as high as the guys above.
Clement - Lots of support, but the league switch is a negative and the division is just as brutal if not worse than he saw last yr. He is a very low risk option IMO - solid pitcher.
Greinke - As good as Harden, but a little less recognition. He's still young so he will have bad outings, and the KC team he plays for really wont help him too much.
Maddux - I wasnt sure where to fit Maddux in - he could go higher than where I have him, but he could also regress again too. He is a lock for 15+ wins, good %s, and below avg Ks. You know what to expect from Maddux, although I will say his %s have been climbing the last couple years and he plays in a hitters park.
Pavano - Very good pitcher, he's usually underrated because of the injuries he's had to fight though. The league switch and pressure of NY are huge negatives you need to factor in. Sure he will get his Ws, but his %s are what you need to be careful of - dont expect a 3.0/1.17 like he had in '04.
Garcia - He went from an extreme pitchers park to a hitters park and his numbers reflected it. A solid pitcher who will get you wins and wont hurt you in %s.
Penny - Very good pitcher - usually very underrated too. The only reason he falls so far down this list is because of the park changes in LA. I do think LA has a decent enough offense to get him 15 wins although it is a step back from '04. He also is a sizeable injury risk.
Sabathia - Good young pitcher - He entered the league at such a young age he seems like a vet at this poitn - but he's only 24. I think the best is yet to come from him, and the CLE team is obviously getting better, but he has to show he can keep his %s below 4 and 1.3 respectively for me to rank him higher.

The last three are in another tier below. Remember the two LA guys will be negatively affected by the park changes. Pettitte is a very very late rd pick for me, and only if Im desperate.

Od Perez
Escobar
Pettitte
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:48 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Halladay - A true Ace who just had a bad yr from fatigue last yr - he should top all lists.
Smoltz - Well, lets see what he can do as a SP again - he obviously has the stuff, but does he have the endurance?
Beckett - On the verge of greatness if he could ever control the blisters. Id argue he is the best pitcher on this list, but the injury issue knocks him down a few notches.
Mulder - I often see Mulder overrated, but not right now - the league switch and better support he will recieve are both positives that add to his value.

The top 4 could be mixed any way you want and should match the risk you are looking for: Beckett - highest risk, highest ceiling;

The next group is a small step below, but there is definitely a dropoff.

Harden - Lots of hype, but he is a solid youngster. He will still get lit up on occassion. His ceiling isnt as high as the guys above.
Clement - Lots of support, but the league switch is a negative and the division is just as brutal if not worse than he saw last yr. He is a very low risk option IMO - solid pitcher.
Greinke - As good as Harden, but a little less recognition. He's still young so he will have bad outings, and the KC team he plays for really wont help him too much.
Maddux - I wasnt sure where to fit Maddux in - he could go higher than where I have him, but he could also regress again too. He is a lock for 15+ wins, good %s, and below avg Ks. You know what to expect from Maddux, although I will say his %s have been climbing the last couple years and he plays in a hitters park.
Pavano - Very good pitcher, he's usually underrated because of the injuries he's had to fight though. The league switch and pressure of NY are huge negatives you need to factor in. Sure he will get his Ws, but his %s are what you need to be careful of - dont expect a 3.0/1.17 like he had in '04.
Garcia - He went from an extreme pitchers park to a hitters park and his numbers reflected it. A solid pitcher who will get you wins and wont hurt you in %s.
Penny - Very good pitcher - usually very underrated too. The only reason he falls so far down this list is because of the park changes in LA. I do think LA has a decent enough offense to get him 15 wins although it is a step back from '04. He also is a sizeable injury risk.
Sabathia - Good young pitcher - He entered the league at such a young age he seems like a vet at this poitn - but he's only 24. I think the best is yet to come from him, and the CLE team is obviously getting better, but he has to show he can keep his %s below 4 and 1.3 respectively for me to rank him higher.

The last three are in another tier below. Remember the two LA guys will be negatively affected by the park changes. Pettitte is a very very late rd pick for me, and only if Im desperate.

Od Perez
Escobar
Pettitte




excellent post ! ;-D ;-D

and pretty close to my rankings as well....
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:57 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Halladay - A true Ace who just had a bad yr from fatigue last yr - he should top all lists.
Smoltz - Well, lets see what he can do as a SP again - he obviously has the stuff, but does he have the endurance?
Beckett - On the verge of greatness if he could ever control the blisters. Id argue he is the best pitcher on this list, but the injury issue knocks him down a few notches.
Mulder - I often see Mulder overrated, but not right now - the league switch and better support he will recieve are both positives that add to his value.

The top 4 could be mixed any way you want and should match the risk you are looking for: Beckett - highest risk, highest ceiling;

The next group is a small step below, but there is definitely a dropoff.

Harden - Lots of hype, but he is a solid youngster. He will still get lit up on occassion. His ceiling isnt as high as the guys above.
Clement - Lots of support, but the league switch is a negative and the division is just as brutal if not worse than he saw last yr. He is a very low risk option IMO - solid pitcher.
Greinke - As good as Harden, but a little less recognition. He's still young so he will have bad outings, and the KC team he plays for really wont help him too much.
Maddux - I wasnt sure where to fit Maddux in - he could go higher than where I have him, but he could also regress again too. He is a lock for 15+ wins, good %s, and below avg Ks. You know what to expect from Maddux, although I will say his %s have been climbing the last couple years and he plays in a hitters park.
Pavano - Very good pitcher, he's usually underrated because of the injuries he's had to fight though. The league switch and pressure of NY are huge negatives you need to factor in. Sure he will get his Ws, but his %s are what you need to be careful of - dont expect a 3.0/1.17 like he had in '04.
Garcia - He went from an extreme pitchers park to a hitters park and his numbers reflected it. A solid pitcher who will get you wins and wont hurt you in %s.
Penny - Very good pitcher - usually very underrated too. The only reason he falls so far down this list is because of the park changes in LA. I do think LA has a decent enough offense to get him 15 wins although it is a step back from '04. He also is a sizeable injury risk.
Sabathia - Good young pitcher - He entered the league at such a young age he seems like a vet at this poitn - but he's only 24. I think the best is yet to come from him, and the CLE team is obviously getting better, but he has to show he can keep his %s below 4 and 1.3 respectively for me to rank him higher.

The last three are in another tier below. Remember the two LA guys will be negatively affected by the park changes. Pettitte is a very very late rd pick for me, and only if Im desperate.

Od Perez
Escobar
Pettitte


Od Perez and Escobar are a lot safer than Greinke, Sabathia, and even Pavano IMO...
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Postby thomasps3 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:00 pm

As far as I can see, there are a lot of qustionmarks with P in the majors today anyhow. This is ultimatley, imho, that owners go wrong...after the first class Ps go, they start to reach when they realize they have Matt Clement as their #1. Stick with your rankings, and here are my comments on the players you have listed:

Garcia - In for a nice year now that Chi-town is making the move to a speed, P, and defense oriented team. Possible 16-18 W season, with a 3.75 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.3 whip 65% confidence rating

Clement - Playing for a hugely offensive team and has a mentor in Schilling, I am expecting similar numbers from Clement that Garcia could reach, but with a higher confidence rating. 16-20 Ws, 3.8 era, 175 Ks, 1.25 WHIP 80% confidence rating

Smoltz - Playing in a much tougher division with the off-season acq's of the Mets, plus his age, lead me to believe a breakdown as a SP will occur, or a return to the 'pen when Kolb blows up. Very low confidence rating on him, but his statline could look like 15-16 Ws, 3.25 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.17 WHIP 35% Confidence Rating

Beckett - Biggest ??? on your board. Personally, I wouldn't draft him because he has never pitched a full major league season without going on IR. Better line-up with Delgado, statline 14 Ws, 3.95 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 160 Ks, 15% confidence rating

Mulder - I have him projected for a huge year, although his 2nd half from last year is worrisome. His statline could look like 19-22 Ws, 2.96 ERA, 180 Ks, 1.24 WHIP Confidence rating 50%

Harden - An excellent frontline SP option. Very high confidence rating 14 Ws, 3.75 ERA, WHIP 1.30, 195 Ks CR 90%

Escobar - I would expect decent things from him, but his track record suggetss nothing out of the ordinary. I would put him in the 3rd-4th tier of SPs. Statline 13 Ws, 4.55 ERA, 190 Ks, 1.42 WHIP CR 75%

Odal. Perez - Huge Sleeper this year. No-decisions are just luck. My projections on him are: 15-17 Ws, 3.13 ERA, 150 Ks, 1.29 WHIP CR 75%

Halladay - If you are like everybody else, you are thinking his shoulder worries are over. Be wary of shoulders. Statline 15 Ws, 3.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 180 Ks CR 45%

Penny - In a pitchers park like Chavez Ravine, he'll net you decent numbers, but nothing glamourous. Expect 14 Ws, 3.45 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 150 Ks 65% CR

Some other pitchers you may want to consider are Bonderman, Westbrook, and CC

I hope this was helpful!!!
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:11 pm

Yoda and Thomas - you guys dont seem to be factoring in the fact that LA completely revamped their playing surface. LA is no longer a pitchers park.

As for Garcia - He had a 4.4ERA after the move to CHW. The switch from an extreme pitchers park to a pretty big hitters park took a serious toll on his numbers fellas. Good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but expecting an ERA under 4 is going to get you in trouble.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:20 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Yoda and Thomas - you guys dont seem to be factoring in the fact that LA completely revamped their playing surface. LA is no longer a pitchers park.

As for Garcia - He had a 4.4ERA after the move to CHW. The switch from an extreme pitchers park to a pretty big hitters park took a serious toll on his numbers fellas. Good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but expecting an ERA under 4 is going to get you in trouble.


Regardless of the park, Oddie is a better pitcher right now than CC, Greinke... Pavano had one good year so I'm not sold on him at all.
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Postby Brendo » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:22 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Yoda and Thomas - you guys dont seem to be factoring in the fact that LA completely revamped their playing surface. LA is no longer a pitchers park.

As for Garcia - He had a 4.4ERA after the move to CHW. The switch from an extreme pitchers park to a pretty big hitters park took a serious toll on his numbers fellas. Good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but expecting an ERA under 4 is going to get you in trouble.


I've heard differing reports on this.

On another board it seemed that while they are making changes, there ius nothing drastically different about the dimensions or fould ground territory that has changed....

I don't know what is up, so do you have a link or a picture that says that the Ravine will be that much different

and even if there are changes, i'd find it hard to belive that cavern could somehow be considered a hitters park
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Postby ensanimal » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:28 pm

Brendo wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Yoda and Thomas - you guys dont seem to be factoring in the fact that LA completely revamped their playing surface. LA is no longer a pitchers park.

As for Garcia - He had a 4.4ERA after the move to CHW. The switch from an extreme pitchers park to a pretty big hitters park took a serious toll on his numbers fellas. Good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but expecting an ERA under 4 is going to get you in trouble.


I've heard differing reports on this.

On another board it seemed that while they are making changes, there ius nothing drastically different about the dimensions or fould ground territory that has changed....

I don't know what is up, so do you have a link or a picture that says that the Ravine will be that much different

and even if there are changes, i'd find it hard to belive that cavern could somehow be considered a hitters park


it was discussed earlier. it does seem like a lot of foul ground will be gone.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=93460&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=dodger%20stadium
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Postby Brendo » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:37 pm

I've seen those pics, and I'm not totally convinced that the work they show will turn Chavez Ravine in Ebbets Field

early reports were the new seats were going in way down the lines...in areas that wouldn't really factor into balls in play

I've read some reports of the dugouts moving out 20 feet, but nothing concrete....

In any sense, Dodger's stadium remains a pitchers park, and for this thread, O. Perez remains a solid 2nd tier option
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