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What's up with RJ's improved control?

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Postby LBJackal » Mon Jan 31, 2005 4:59 pm

Tavish wrote:
The Jury wrote:
Tavish wrote:His walk rate has gradually improved in each of the last 5 seasons. I wouldn't expect him to repeat his 04 season, but I wouldn't expect him to go back to his Seattle numbers.


I'm not really down with that :,-(


BB/9 IP
2000 2.75
2001 2.56
2002 2.46
2003 2.13
2004 1.61


2003 shouldn't count... people were smacking the ball all over off of him. He didn't have a chance to walk anybody :-D

But look at the small change from 2000-2002, and then a giant leap in 2004. That's not a normal progression. Add the fact that he's going back to the AL.... his BB's should be at least 2 per 9 IP IMO. Checking on my projecitons... I actually have him down for exactly 2 BB/9.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:07 pm

LBJackal wrote:2003 shouldn't count... people were smacking the ball all over off of him. He didn't have a chance to walk anybody :-D

But look at the small change from 2000-2002, and then a giant leap in 2004. That's not a normal progression. Add the fact that he's going back to the AL.... his BB's should be at least 2 per 9 IP IMO. Checking on my projecitons... I actually have him down for exactly 2 BB/9.


I think we are saying the exact same thing. Yes it was a big leap, but there definitely was a progression before that. Even had he stayed in the NL I wouldn't expect a repeat, but him improving in 2004 didn't come completely out of nowhere. I have him projected around the 2.75 BB/9 IP mark.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:23 pm

Tavish wrote:
LBJackal wrote:2003 shouldn't count... people were smacking the ball all over off of him. He didn't have a chance to walk anybody :-D

But look at the small change from 2000-2002, and then a giant leap in 2004. That's not a normal progression. Add the fact that he's going back to the AL.... his BB's should be at least 2 per 9 IP IMO. Checking on my projecitons... I actually have him down for exactly 2 BB/9.


I think we are saying the exact same thing. Yes it was a big leap, but there definitely was a progression before that. Even had he stayed in the NL I wouldn't expect a repeat, but him improving in 2004 didn't come completely out of nowhere. I have him projected around the 2.75 BB/9 IP mark.


2.75? That's quite a jump backwards! First you were arguing that 1.61 was just him progressing, and then a move to the AL will cause him to fall all the way back to 2.75 :-S

I'm not saying it can't happen but the way you were talking before makes that prediction seem strange.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:55 pm

I don't expect the move to the AL will impact his numbers much. first of all, the common wisdom that an AL pitcher faces a slugging DH rather than the pitcher is misleading. An AL pitcher is gonna face the weakest hitter in the 9th slot in the batting order instead of the pitcher. Will that 9th place AL hitter be as weak as a pitcher? Probably not, but the difference between that 9th place hitter and a pitcher is gonna be much smaller than the slugging DH and the pitcher. The DH usually hits 3rd, 4th, or 5th. There's always gonna be a slugger in those positions, whether its in the AL or the NL.

Beyond that, Yankee stadium is a good pitchers park, and especially for lefties. Arizona? A good hitters park. That should balance out, to a certain extent, any differences in moving to the AL and not facing pitchers.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:56 pm

LBJackal wrote:2.75? That's quite a jump backwards! First you were arguing that 1.61 was just him progressing, and then a move to the AL will cause him to fall all the way back to 2.75 :-S

I'm not saying it can't happen but the way you were talking before makes that prediction seem strange.


Its not all that large of a jump backwards, my arguement is still the same. 1.61 is a progression but I think we both agree that it is large enough of a jump that he will regress. 2.75 is still a great deal of progression for a guy with 4.43 BB/9IP in the AL. It would have him hovering right around the top 10 AL pitchers in that category.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Jan 31, 2005 6:07 pm

Tavish wrote:
LBJackal wrote:2.75? That's quite a jump backwards! First you were arguing that 1.61 was just him progressing, and then a move to the AL will cause him to fall all the way back to 2.75 :-S

I'm not saying it can't happen but the way you were talking before makes that prediction seem strange.


Its not all that large of a jump backwards, my arguement is still the same. 1.61 is a progression but I think we both agree that it is large enough of a jump that he will regress. 2.75 is still a great deal of progression for a guy with 4.43 BB/9IP in the AL. It would have him hovering right around the top 10 AL pitchers in that category.


Well regardless of where it palces him.... you were first arguing that it was a progression with age (at least I thougth you were) and now you're saying he'll almost double his BB's from last year 8-o I don't think his BB/9 in Seattle should be of any consideration given the improvement he's made since then.

And to the person saying he's facing a #9 hitter instead of pitcher.... no, he's not. He's facing a DH instead of a pitcher. The #9 hitter he's facing now was batting #8 in the NL, and so on. Take out the pitcher, add in the DH. Yeah they're in a different spot in the lineup but that doesn't matter. It's a pretty significan't difference between AL and NL.
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Postby blankman » Mon Jan 31, 2005 7:38 pm

LBJackal wrote:And to the person saying he's facing a #9 hitter instead of pitcher.... no, he's not. He's facing a DH instead of a pitcher. The #9 hitter he's facing now was batting #8 in the NL, and so on. Take out the pitcher, add in the DH. Yeah they're in a different spot in the lineup but that doesn't matter. It's a pretty significan't difference between AL and NL.


Exactly. The average #9 hitter in the AL is likely the same as the average #8 hitter in the NL- it's the worst hitting position player.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 31, 2005 7:43 pm

LBJackal wrote:Well regardless of where it palces him.... you were first arguing that it was a progression with age (at least I thougth you were) and now you're saying he'll almost double his BB's from last year 8-o I don't think his BB/9 in Seattle should be of any consideration given the improvement he's made since then.

I'm still arguing its a progression with age, 2.75 is progression. Its not nearly as good as last year for sure (still quite far from doubling it), but much better than his career average.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Jan 31, 2005 7:55 pm

Tavish wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Well regardless of where it palces him.... you were first arguing that it was a progression with age (at least I thougth you were) and now you're saying he'll almost double his BB's from last year 8-o I don't think his BB/9 in Seattle should be of any consideration given the improvement he's made since then.

I'm still arguing its a progression with age, 2.75 is progression. Its not nearly as good as last year for sure (still quite far from doubling it), but much better than his career average.


Well being better than your career average definately doesn't mean it's a progression IMO. Or else Sheets having a 3.75 ERA is progression, Beltre hitting 26 HR's would be a progression, etc. I don't have a problem with saying his BB/9 will be 2.75 but then to also say it's a progression, when he's averaged 2.3 over the past 6 years, getting better each year to the point of a 1.61 BB/9, seems very strange. Like an oxymoron.
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