Thanks, guys. I've never punted a cat before, so was concerned about doing so. The full league is 16 team roto mixed 6x6 (Holds and OPS added to the usual). I'm using xeifrank's base values, so I haven't tested it with other projections.
A few more runs suggests that grabbing a closer or two around round 17-22 keeps me in the running.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:So, I set up mock draft and have been running it based on my league's 16 teams and ten keepers. One thing I dois let the computer draft for me, so I can see what strategies develop. In almost every case, the computer punts on saves and I usually finish in the top 3. I have no closer in my ten keepers. The best on the board will be Cordero, though I seriously doubt he will drop to me. After that it's Graves, Looper, Percival, Baez, etc. I had thought that I would wait a little and then draft 2-3 closers in those later rounds, but when I do that I usually finish around 7th or 8th.
Now, one difference is that my league counts holds and those aren't in the 5x5 valuation. But, what do you think. Given that set up would you punt saves and try to make it up elsewhere.
In a league that counts holds, 6x6, I think it allows you to punt on wins/k's and focus more on the hitting side, making sure to be a lock in the top 3 of each offensive category. Then I'd grab a few sure closers and a few good relievers to drive up the saves/holds while driving down the WHIP/ERA. That way you've pretty much done well for 10 categories. Grab a few sleeper starters late and you're set.
I'd be very surprised if that strategy worked. I've never seen anyone win in this league punting one category, much less punting two. Last year one guy finished last in three categories and finished third...50 points behind the leaders.
I punted wins and k's (ended up second to last in it) in a 6x6 last year and won the league. It's not too difficult to come in first in WHIP, ERA, Saves, and Holds if the only pitchers you draft high are relievers.
davidmarver wrote:I punted wins and k's (ended up second to last in it) in a 6x6 last year and won the league. It's not too difficult to come in first in WHIP, ERA, Saves, and Holds if the only pitchers you draft high are relievers.
You are ignoring the fact that this is a keeper league. The top 10-15 closers are gone. kept by one team or another.
In my 15-team 5x5 roto league last year, about a month into the season I decided to punt wins and K's. I was doing badly enough in these categories anyway that, by my estimates, the amount I would move up in ERA, saves, and WHIP would be equal to the amount I'd move down in K's and wins, and my hitting would improve since I'd be able to trade for hitters, resulting in a net gain for me. I ended up winning R, HR, RBI, ERA, Saves, WHIP, getting 12 (out of 15) in SB, about 6 in average, and 1 in wins and K's. I was in about sixth before doing the strategy, and I ended up coming in second. However, my league happened to use 4 SP slots, 2 RP slots, and 1 P slot, which meant that the most possible closers someone could have is 3, which made it much easier for me to win saves. Even so, the fact that I was able to come in second in a 5x5 by punting two categories makes me think that it's very possible to come in first in a 6x6 by punting just one category.
I ask, because it's my guess that it's much more difficult to pull this off in a keeper league, where some top players are likely to be very difficult to swing a trade for and also more difficult in a pay league, where there are no suckers.
It's a pay league, but it's not a keeper league, so I'm sure that makes a difference. Also, I happened to be able to trade for Sheffield when he was pretty much at bottom value and dealt Carlos Zambrano for Crawford while Zambrano was at a very high value. So basically, if those specific trends hadn't been present at that point in the season for Sheff and Zambrano, I might have easily been unable to pull it off...not to mention that I could very well have done better if I hadn't punted wins and K's, since one of the guys I traded (at minimum value) was Santana.
Also, for me, it was relatively easy to win saves in my league because the pitching slots allowed for a maximum of three closers, and I already had two good ones and a decent one. This meant that I was able to win saves, ERA, and WHIP without too much trouble by punting wins and K's. However, with starting pitchers, simply punting closers won't guarantee that you win all the categories besides saves. Because of this, me punting wins and K's isn't necessarily comparable to you punting saves.
So, to make a long story short...I'm not sure that my experience is comparable to what you're considering. At the least, though, I think it shows that punting can potentially be successful (at least, if you're in a league like mine where 2nd place gets money ).
I agree that punting is a bad idea unless.... You look at what closer you would draft and when, then look at what player you would be losing by drafting that closer, if you think that the stats of that player will give you more points than the closer than he should be taken. The thing is, is that unlike steals which you can pick up a token few from every player, a starter is almost never going to get you 5 saves. So if drafting a 5th round closer who is good is an option you stand to gain up to 6 or 7 roto points above those with crappy closers. Comparatively the best other player you could get at the same point in the draft is only somewhat better than the next rounds options and therefore you stand to gain fewer points even if you get stats in more categories.
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