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Blalock vs. Rolen vs AROD vs Chavez

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Postby Secret Avatar » Sat Jan 29, 2005 9:48 pm

"So....You have Chavez improving .33 points on his 7 YEAR CAREER AVG. And giving him 6 more HR than his BEST year ever (assuming he can play more than 153 games, which he did that year), and would also top his career high in RBI."

I'm equally skeptical that such a bounce will result, after all these years, merely by "figuring out lefties" (whatever that really means). Chavez is still relatively young, though, so you never know. I do have him posting some improved numbers next year, but no where near a 33 point, 6 HR bounce. Lots of fantasy owners are sky-high on him, which means he'll go much earlier in any draft than I'm ready to take him.
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Postby dannahann » Sat Jan 29, 2005 10:34 pm

GreenMonsterGoon wrote:So....You have Chavez improving .33 points on his 7 YEAR CAREER AVG. And giving him 6 more HR than his BEST year ever (assuming he can play more than 153 games, which he did that year), and would also top his career high in RBI.


Not that I'm saying Chavez will do this, but it surely wouldn't be unprecedented. Why just last season, and at a similar age, Scott Rolen bested his 8 YEAR CAREER AVG by 32 points. :-? He also bested his career best HR by 3. Oh Rolen also bested his career best RBI by 14. Chavie getting better swings at lefties is certainly a realistic reason to speculate a significant improvement. No reason to think Rolen is any more special than Chavie, or that Chavie can't accomplish the same kinda feat Rolen just did?
Last edited by dannahann on Sun Jan 30, 2005 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: hmmm

Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Jan 29, 2005 10:46 pm

GreenMonsterGoon wrote:I don't understand how you can call a player with Blalock's productation
A Year away
Blalock had a monster slump last year and for his career has struggled against lefties.
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Re: hmmm

Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:41 am

Absolutely Adequate wrote:
GreenMonsterGoon wrote:On what basis do you have chavez on top of Blalock and Rolen. His stats are very typically insuperior


Last year he was able -for the first time ever - to his lefties and righties equally well. Give him a full season and he'll hit .310 with 40 homers and 115 rbis.


We usually don't see eye to eye on a many things, but I think you're dead on here. He proved last year that he could finally hit lefties consitently which was his only real weakness IMO. If he can do that for an entire year, the AVG will be well over .300 and easily reach 35 HR's. As for the rest, Rolen is very overrated IMO, just look at his career numbers. Last year was his career year and I don't see him repeating it again, even in STL. I'm with Mustangs on Blalock to some degree. He's got the ability no doubt, but if he can figure out how to hit in the second half, he would be a second round stud in most leagues I think. Anyway, enough talking, here's how I've got the 8 you listed:

1) A-Rod
1a) Chavez -- (1a) if he continues to hit lefties. "Just" (2) otherwise.
3) Blalock
4) Rolen
5) Beltre
6) Ramirez
7) Huff
8) Mora
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Postby The Jury » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:19 am

dannahann wrote:
GreenMonsterGoon wrote:So....You have Chavez improving .33 points on his 7 YEAR CAREER AVG. And giving him 6 more HR than his BEST year ever (assuming he can play more than 153 games, which he did that year), and would also top his career high in RBI.


Not that I'm saying Chavez will do this, but it surely wouldn't be unprecedented. Why just last season, and at a similar age, Scott Rolen bested his 8 YEAR CAREER AVG by 32 points. :-? He also bested his career best HR by 3. Oh Rolen also bested his career best RBI by 14. Chavie getting better swings at lefties is certainly a realistic reason to speculate a significant improvement. No reason to think Rolen is any more special than Chavie, or that Chavie can't accomplish the same kinda feat Rolen just did?


Maybe not, but he IS in a hell of a lot better lineup than Chavez.
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Postby RynMan » Sun Jan 30, 2005 4:07 am

Yeah, basically I have Rolen over Chavez for a couple of reasons:

1. Chavez hits in a very tough hitters park
2. He hits in a weaker offensive team (less RBI's and less runs).
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Sun Jan 30, 2005 4:19 am

Beltre just gets no love. He may not be quite as good as last year, but only 5 players in the majors were more valuable than him last year. He will be the second best 3B next year, without question, even if he doesnt repeat. As for Chavez, he is good, but thats it.

Arod
Beltre
Rolen
Aram
Mora
Blaylock
Chavez
Wright
Huff
Chipper
Lowell
...then there's a big droppoff to Glaus
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Postby davidmarver » Sun Jan 30, 2005 4:21 am

GreenMonsterGoon wrote:
Last year he was able -for the first time ever - to his lefties and righties equally well. Give him a full season and he'll hit .310 with 40 homers and 115 rbis.


So....You have Chavez improving .33 points on his 7 YEAR CAREER AVG. And giving him 6 more HR than his BEST year ever (assuming he can play more than 153 games, which he did that year), and would also top his career high in RBI.

I've rarely seen a veteran of that many years show that drastic an average shift and I don't see how he will improve in every category with next to no protection in the awful lineup that he hits in.


Agreed. While I like Chavez the most of the group, you cannot put him higher than the other players...if only for the fact that Rolen hits in a lineup with Pujols, Edmonds, and Walker, and Blalock hits in Arlington's hitter heaven. Put Chavez in Rolen or Blalock's position and I choose Chavez.

(Rolen's more fun to watch anyway...he's one of those gritty players you don't see anymore)
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Ok

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Sun Jan 30, 2005 9:06 am

So lets just say he does improve .33 and he does hit 6 more HR.....

Who is going to drive him in?

Who is he going to drive in?

The only answer I can come up with his Chavez
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Postby rlee » Sun Jan 30, 2005 10:23 am

Blalock poses some interesting questions. In 2003, lefties dragged him down. Last year, he did better against lef-handed pitching, but his home/away splits were horrible. That combined with his second half slump makes me a little bit gun-shy, particularly when compared with the other three.

Chavez, remember, lost about a month last year with a broken hand and has already been noted, improved markedly against left-handers. I would go:

A-Rod
Rolen
Chavez
Blalock
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