"I HIGHLY doubt that Teixeira will hit at a .300 clip this season, and I don't think that he will consistently hit .300 even in his prime, using his K/BB as an indicator."
I'm also skeptical he'll hit 300 BA next year. In fact, even the most bullish projections for him that I've seen don't have him at 300. Now, 300 might be attainable ultimately, but that would mean he's have to increase his BA by 20 points over 2004 and by 40 points over 2003. Not impossible, but unlikely. I see much more incremental improvement.
He did hit over 315 in the minor leagues, and a lot of people are using that to support their view that he'll hit comparablely in the majors. I'm not that persuaded by his BA against minor league pitchers. If he hit 350 in the minors, maybe, but hitting 315 or even 325 in the minors is a far cry from hitting 300 in the majors.
My projections for him next year are something like: 285-105-118-40-3.
Last edited by Secret Avatar on Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Also, I think Giambi is too high considering it is unknown how he will react to all the off-season BALCO stuff (or how the Yanks will react). I would wait until spring training before I give him that high of a ranking.
1. Albert Pujols STL 2. Todd Helton COL 3. Jim Thome PHI 4. Carlos Delgado FLA 5. David Ortiz BOS 6. Mark Teixeira TEX 7. Richie Sexson SEA 8. Justin Morneau MIN 9. Jason Giambi NYY 10. Phil Nevin SD 11. Derrek Lee CHC 12. Sean Casey CIN 13. Aubrey Huff TB 14. Hee Seop Choi LA 15. Mike Sweeney KC 16. Mike Piazza NYM 17. Paul Konerko CWS 18. Ben Broussard CLE 19. Brad Wilkerson WAS 20. Ryan Klesko SD 21. Shawn Green ARI 22. Jeff Bagwell HOU 23. Craig Wilson PIT 24. Carlos Pena DET 25. Shea Hillenbrand TOR 26. Lyle Overbay MIL 27. Adam LaRoche ATL 28. Robb Quinlan ANA 29. J.T. Snow SF 30. Nick Johnson WAS 31. Dmitri Young DET 32. Kevin Millar BOS 33. Scott Hatteberg OAK 34. Ken Harvey KC 35. Matt Stairs KC 36. Josh Phelps TB 37. Darin Erstad ANA 38. Pedro Feliz SF 39. Bucky Jacobsen SEA 40. Tino Martinez NYY
I did my best to make sure everyone there will have 1B eligibility on draft day. I also did some shuffling after being convinced of some things. It seems everyone has Helton at #2. He does own Thome in OBP and SLG, but my issue is the fact Thome is surrounded by better hitters overall.
Thome has also been more consistent with his homeruns, averaging 48 per season over the last four years. Helton did hit 49 bombs in 2001 but over the last three years his average has dropped to 32 per season. I also see Thome driving in more runs given, as said, the players around him.
But I'll take all your words for it.
I'm pretty much in agreement with your top 7
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
1. Albert Pujols STL
2. Todd Helton COL
3. Jim Thome PHI
4. Carlos Delgado FLA
5. David Ortiz BOS
6. Mark Teixeira TEX
7. Richie Sexson SEA
8. Justin Morneau MIN
9. Jason Giambi NYY
10. Phil Nevin SD
11. Derrek Lee CHC
12. Sean Casey CIN
13. Aubrey Huff TB
14. Hee Seop Choi LA
15. Mike Sweeney KC
16. Mike Piazza NYM
17. Paul Konerko CWS
18. Ben Broussard CLE
19. Brad Wilkerson WAS
20. Ryan Klesko SD
Looks pretty good. I'd move Ortiz up a notch, Morneau down a few notches, Sexson down a notch, Giambi down at least 5 notches and probably more, and Huff, Lee, and Konerko up a few notches.
I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.
Secret Avatar wrote:"I HIGHLY doubt that Teixeira will hit at a .300 clip this season, and I don't think that he will consistently hit .300 even in his prime, using his K/BB as an indicator."
I'm also skeptical he'll hit 300 BA next year. In fact, even the most bullish projections for him that I've seen don't have him at 300. Now, 300 might be attainable ultimately, but that would mean he's have to increase his BA by 20 points over 2004 and by 40 points over 2003. Not impossible, but unlikely. I see much more incremental improvement.
He did hit over 315 in the minor leagues, and a lot of people are using that to support their view that he'll hit comparablely in the majors. I'm not that persuaded by his BA against minor league pitchers. If he hit 350 in the minors, maybe, but hitting 315 or even 325 in the minors is a far cry from hitting 300 in the majors.
My projections for him next year are something like: 285-105-118-40-3.
Well, he hit 20 points better progressivley, so whats so odd about it going up 20 more? I see him hitting .290-105-125-43-2. It was crazy that he nearly got .280 after that awful slump at the beginning of the year.
"Well, he hit 20 points better progressivley, so whats so odd about it going up 20 more?"
Well, the law of diminishing returns sets in. If he hits 300 in 2005 would you then say he's good for 320 in 2006, 340 in 2007, 360 in 2008, etc.?
Besides, look at his contact rate, K rate, hit rate, etc. between 2003 and 2004. While they did improve slightly, it didn't seem like enough to jump 20 points in BA. Plus, he still strikes out a ton of times, as most power hitters do, which will put a damper on his BA. What did jump tremendously from 2003 to 2004 is his HR percentage. What that tells me is his 20-point bounce in HR results in significant part from his increased his power (turning long balls into HRs) in going from 26 to 38 HR. Now, unless you are expecting him to increase his HR total yet again by 10 to 15, that puts a damper on another 20-point bounce in BA.
I'm not saying he can't hit 300 next year. Of course he can. He can hit 300. He can hit 320. He can also hit 260 or 270. My point was that it's unlikely he will. I see something more in the range of 280 to 290.
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by Madison Mayhem » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:15 pm 
