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List looks good...but

Postby Madison Mayhem » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:15 pm

it appears raffy got booted from your list. Was that on purpose?
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:15 pm

"I HIGHLY doubt that Teixeira will hit at a .300 clip this season, and I don't think that he will consistently hit .300 even in his prime, using his K/BB as an indicator."

I'm also skeptical he'll hit 300 BA next year. In fact, even the most bullish projections for him that I've seen don't have him at 300. Now, 300 might be attainable ultimately, but that would mean he's have to increase his BA by 20 points over 2004 and by 40 points over 2003. Not impossible, but unlikely. I see much more incremental improvement.

He did hit over 315 in the minor leagues, and a lot of people are using that to support their view that he'll hit comparablely in the majors. I'm not that persuaded by his BA against minor league pitchers. If he hit 350 in the minors, maybe, but hitting 315 or even 325 in the minors is a far cry from hitting 300 in the majors.

My projections for him next year are something like: 285-105-118-40-3.
Last edited by Secret Avatar on Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Giambi

Postby Madison Mayhem » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:17 pm

Also, I think Giambi is too high considering it is unknown how he will react to all the off-season BALCO stuff (or how the Yanks will react). I would wait until spring training before I give him that high of a ranking.
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Postby The Jury » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:33 pm

Lime wrote:Here's my (current) revised top 40:

1. Albert Pujols STL
2. Todd Helton COL
3. Jim Thome PHI
4. Carlos Delgado FLA
5. David Ortiz BOS
6. Mark Teixeira TEX
7. Richie Sexson SEA
8. Justin Morneau MIN
9. Jason Giambi NYY
10. Phil Nevin SD
11. Derrek Lee CHC
12. Sean Casey CIN
13. Aubrey Huff TB
14. Hee Seop Choi LA
15. Mike Sweeney KC
16. Mike Piazza NYM
17. Paul Konerko CWS
18. Ben Broussard CLE
19. Brad Wilkerson WAS
20. Ryan Klesko SD
21. Shawn Green ARI
22. Jeff Bagwell HOU
23. Craig Wilson PIT
24. Carlos Pena DET
25. Shea Hillenbrand TOR
26. Lyle Overbay MIL
27. Adam LaRoche ATL
28. Robb Quinlan ANA
29. J.T. Snow SF
30. Nick Johnson WAS
31. Dmitri Young DET
32. Kevin Millar BOS
33. Scott Hatteberg OAK
34. Ken Harvey KC
35. Matt Stairs KC
36. Josh Phelps TB
37. Darin Erstad ANA
38. Pedro Feliz SF
39. Bucky Jacobsen SEA
40. Tino Martinez NYY

I did my best to make sure everyone there will have 1B eligibility on draft day. I also did some shuffling after being convinced of some things. It seems everyone has Helton at #2. He does own Thome in OBP and SLG, but my issue is the fact Thome is surrounded by better hitters overall.

Thome has also been more consistent with his homeruns, averaging 48 per season over the last four years. Helton did hit 49 bombs in 2001 but over the last three years his average has dropped to 32 per season. I also see Thome driving in more runs given, as said, the players around him.

But I'll take all your words for it.


I'm pretty much in agreement with your top 7 ;-D
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Jan 30, 2005 5:07 pm

Here's my (current) revised top 40:

1. Albert Pujols STL
2. Todd Helton COL
3. Jim Thome PHI
4. Carlos Delgado FLA
5. David Ortiz BOS
6. Mark Teixeira TEX
7. Richie Sexson SEA
8. Justin Morneau MIN
9. Jason Giambi NYY
10. Phil Nevin SD
11. Derrek Lee CHC
12. Sean Casey CIN
13. Aubrey Huff TB
14. Hee Seop Choi LA
15. Mike Sweeney KC
16. Mike Piazza NYM
17. Paul Konerko CWS
18. Ben Broussard CLE
19. Brad Wilkerson WAS
20. Ryan Klesko SD


Looks pretty good. I'd move Ortiz up a notch, Morneau down a few notches, Sexson down a notch, Giambi down at least 5 notches and probably more, and Huff, Lee, and Konerko up a few notches.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun Jan 30, 2005 7:39 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:"I HIGHLY doubt that Teixeira will hit at a .300 clip this season, and I don't think that he will consistently hit .300 even in his prime, using his K/BB as an indicator."

I'm also skeptical he'll hit 300 BA next year. In fact, even the most bullish projections for him that I've seen don't have him at 300. Now, 300 might be attainable ultimately, but that would mean he's have to increase his BA by 20 points over 2004 and by 40 points over 2003. Not impossible, but unlikely. I see much more incremental improvement.

He did hit over 315 in the minor leagues, and a lot of people are using that to support their view that he'll hit comparablely in the majors. I'm not that persuaded by his BA against minor league pitchers. If he hit 350 in the minors, maybe, but hitting 315 or even 325 in the minors is a far cry from hitting 300 in the majors.

My projections for him next year are something like: 285-105-118-40-3.
Well, he hit 20 points better progressivley, so whats so odd about it going up 20 more? I see him hitting .290-105-125-43-2. It was crazy that he nearly got .280 after that awful slump at the beginning of the year.
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Postby Rage » Sun Jan 30, 2005 10:56 pm

My Top 15

1. Albert Pujols STL .331-46-123-133-84-5
2. Todd Helton COL .347-32-96-115-127-3
3. Jim Thome PHI .276-42-105-97-104-0
4. David Ortiz BOS .300-41-139-94-75-0
5. Mark Teixeira TEX .280-38-112-101-68-4
6. Carlos Delgado FLA .268-32-99-74-69-0
7. Richie Sexson SEA .233-9-23-20-14-0 (INJ only 90 AB’s)
8. Justin Morneau MIN .271-19-58-39-28-0 (Only 280 AB’s)
9. Travis Hafner CLE- .311-28-109-96-68-3
10. Aubrey Huff TB .296-29-104-92-56-5
11. Derrek Lee CHC .277-32-98-90-68-12
12. Jason Giambi NYY .208-12-40-33-47-0 (INJ only 264 AB’s)
13. Paul Konerko CWS .277-41-117-84-69-1
14. Phil Nevin SD-OF .288-26-105-78-66-0
15. Jeff Bagwell HOU .265-27-89-104-96-6

*I have Casey #16 but just opted to post Top 15 as I am in the process of revising...just incase someone asked where he was, lol.

You guys are cracking me up with even listing Choi in the Top 20...why? He's a marginal starter NOW in a HITTER's park.

Just my opinion but Choi should be between 22-25.
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Re: Not bad...

Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sun Jan 30, 2005 11:08 pm

GreenMonsterGoon wrote:I don't want to take away all the fun and point out all the things I see, but I'll start with my two most glaring suggestions.

1. Move Texeira up - There is no way he's behind Delgado at least
2. Giambi: And you took injury into account....Move Giambi to 25ish


Why Delgado so low? I think until Tex puts up numbers that are better than Carlos you have to keep him below Delgado
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Postby Rage » Sun Jan 30, 2005 11:13 pm

Looks like Yahoo has Frank Thomas as a 1B/DH, is this true and if so, where would you guys rank him amoungst 1B'men.

I got him around 25.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Mon Jan 31, 2005 12:48 am

"Well, he hit 20 points better progressivley, so whats so odd about it going up 20 more?"

Well, the law of diminishing returns sets in. If he hits 300 in 2005 would you then say he's good for 320 in 2006, 340 in 2007, 360 in 2008, etc.?

Besides, look at his contact rate, K rate, hit rate, etc. between 2003 and 2004. While they did improve slightly, it didn't seem like enough to jump 20 points in BA. Plus, he still strikes out a ton of times, as most power hitters do, which will put a damper on his BA. What did jump tremendously from 2003 to 2004 is his HR percentage. What that tells me is his 20-point bounce in HR results in significant part from his increased his power (turning long balls into HRs) in going from 26 to 38 HR. Now, unless you are expecting him to increase his HR total yet again by 10 to 15, that puts a damper on another 20-point bounce in BA.

I'm not saying he can't hit 300 next year. Of course he can. He can hit 300. He can hit 320. He can also hit 260 or 270. My point was that it's unlikely he will. I see something more in the range of 280 to 290.
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