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Positional std.dev weights

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Positional std.dev weights

Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:45 pm

I use the std.dev method of ranking players. I was reviewing my 1B ranks and was unsettled by the fact that I have Darin Erstad at #14. This is solely due to the fact that he has 19 SB where the positional average is 3. He gets +3.84 for SBs and has +.82 overall.

For anyone else that ranks the same way, have you assigned specific weights to each non-% stat for your positional rankings? If so what determines the weight? I think I should make SBs less valuable for 1B and more valuable for 2B/SS, but not sure how much.
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:54 pm

upon further review, i think the only position it would apply to is 1B b/c it is uber-homogenous. but still, how much weight? and do i then increase the HR weight a bit?
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Postby mbuser » Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:32 pm

you can decrease SB weight by something like this:

(AVG val)*2 +
(HR val)*2 +
(RBI val)*2 +
(R val)*2 +
(SB val)

divide the total by 9 and you've made the other categories twice as valuable as SB when calculating value. that or just leave SB out of the equation all together and just take note of who will get you a few and consider it a bonus.

i also have a question for you -- what formula do you use for calculating batting average value?
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:48 pm

mbuser wrote:you can decrease SB weight by something like this:

(AVG val)*2 +
(HR val)*2 +
(RBI val)*2 +
(R val)*2 +
(SB val)

divide the total by 9 and you've made the other categories twice as valuable as SB when calculating value. that or just leave SB out of the equation all together and just take note of who will get you a few and consider it a bonus.

i also have a question for you -- what formula do you use for calculating batting average value?


yeah, I knew what to do, i just wasn't sure how much would be the right ratio, whether it be SB*.50 or.75 or whatever.

for BA:
((PlayerBA-AvgBA)/StdDevBA)*(PlayerAB/AvgAB)

so with this my projections give Barry's .356 a 2.66 value, Ichiro's .344 a 3.92 value, and Vlad's .335 a 2.90 value. (Amongst a population set of OF only)
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Postby mbuser » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:03 pm

i should have assumed you knew to do something like that, but i wasn't really sure what you were after. in the case of SB's and 1B, i'd think you could weigh SB as little as you want, seeing that derrek lee, brad wilkerson, and erstad are the only guys that really are going to affect your team totals anyway

and i'm using the same AVG formula -- just wanted to see if that was the case ;-D
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:22 pm

after toying around i like 0.25, which knocks Erstad down to 27 and Lee down to 11. much better.
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Postby jellyroll » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:04 pm

just out curiousity why use positional std dev? I'd think it would put undue value on specific catergories... i.e Erstad at #14. Wouldn't this happen for cathers with ave or 2b with HR?

Wouldn't it be better to use proposed fantasy league population (top 200 or so player) to get st devs and make positional adjustments after?
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:11 pm

jellyroll wrote:just out curiousity why use positional std dev? I'd think it would put undue value on specific catergories... i.e Erstad at #14. Wouldn't this happen for cathers with ave or 2b with HR?

Wouldn't it be better to use proposed fantasy league population (top 200 or so player) to get st devs and make positional adjustments after?


for VORP and scarcity reasons. For example, for all batters, I have Carlos Lee at 3.78 and V-mart at 3.62, a difference of .16.
However, Lee is only .11 above Huff for OF rankings whereas Vmart is .80 above Irod for C rankings. I take Vmart b/c his stats are harder to replace with the next best person at his position.

the problem doesn't come up with your C and BA examples b/c there is a more common dispersion within the group, whereas with 1B, only 2 people steal bases, so it useless to value a speedy 1B b/c you can get steals cheaper at other positions.
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Postby daweasle » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:20 pm

hey rugby (it's wesjones76 from rototimes forum)

I think it doesn't matter too much for stolen bases cause erstad, wilkerson and lee are the only guys that are going to get you any points there anyways. Just rank 1B without SB included at all - and at the end go back and bump up those three a couple spots.....

I've been looking at VORP as the master for standard deviation - but now I'm curious since you use both - what is the difference between the two?

(what does VORP stand for?) value of relative position>?
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Postby daweasle » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:24 pm

hey rugby (it's wesjones76 from rototimes forum)

I think it doesn't matter too much for stolen bases cause erstad, wilkerson and lee are the only guys that are going to get you any points there anyways. Just rank 1B without SB included at all - and at the end go back and bump up those three a couple spots.....

I've been looking at VORP as the master for standard deviation - but now I'm curious since you use both - what is the difference between the two?

(what does VORP stand for?) value of relative position>?
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