Is Soriano Overrated?

[FoolOnTheHill]

This is my first post. I've been watching from the sidelines for a while and am very impressed with the caliber and camaraderie of the posts here at the Cafe. Let me humbly begin . . .

Did the Yankees see something (besides shabby defense) when they shipped Soriano to Texas? His numbers have steadily decreased over the last three years. He's a free-swinging, undisciplined, impatient hitter. Are pitchers figuring him out and getting the upper hand? Can Texas' batting instructors teach him anything? Does he have the capacity to improve or have we seen his best?

In the mock drafts I've seen so far, he's going in the anywhere from the mid-first to mid-second round. This is no doubt in part the "big fish in little pond" phenomenon of the scacity at 2B but aren't Marcus Giles' numbers comparable? Doesn't Giles have more upside? Wouldn't you be better off grabbing Giles a few rounds later?

What's the call? Is Soriano overrated?

[GreenMonsterGoon]

I just finished my projections and he was the player I was most surprised with in terms of how far he dropped. By my calculation, and granted it is a system I created and only uses stats from the past 3 seasons, he is a high third rounder.

[trevisc]

I think anyone who hits close to 40/40 two years in a row has the right to be a little "overrated" after a down year. If he has 2 down years in a row then i'll kick him out of my first round rankings. Every projection and article i've read about him says he was battling a leg injury last year and should bounce back to at least a 30/30 hitter IF he stays healthy.

[TheYanks04]

Maybe. But if you watched him bat regularly as I did, you would have been amazed at how this guy swings at balls 3 feet outside and in the dirt with regularity. Man is a completely undiscipline hack. What saves him is his incredibly quick hands and bat speed. He makes up for a lot of mistakes with it but maybe the pitchers have finally realized you do not have to throw him anything resembling a strike. Just throw 3 low and away and he likely will get himself out.

Does it surprise me that he is declining...no actually. Just that it is happening as quickly as it is. The Yanks never liked Soriano either as a player at the plate, in the field or perdnoally. They had dealt him 3 times prior to the Arod deal only to see the deals fall through. This was never a player they considered too good to deal and many in the organization doubted him proimarily becuas ehe was such a hack.

[Pogotheostrich]

Doesn't Giles have more upside?
Giles is great but it isn't even close IMO. Giles is 27 and his career highs are 100 R, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 17 SB, and .316 AVG. Soriano is 29 with career highs of 128 R, 39 HR, 102 RBI, 43 SB and .300 AVG.

Wouldn't you be better off grabbing Giles a few rounds later?
You might be right here. Soriano will be gone by the end of the 2nd and Giles could be a better value pick.

[Yoda]

Soriano had a rough year that is for sure. But every year it seems like people doubt that he will be good. I think he is young enough that he can be a 30-30 guy fro a couple of more years. Until he takes another step backwards, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. He would have easily hit 30+ again last season if it weren't for his injury.

Giles is a good player but there are more questions regarding him than Soriano IMO.

[pokerplaya]

There is no doubt in my mind that this year will make or break him in fantasy terms. I had no problem drafting him at the end of the first round, however. It was a high risk, high reward proposition, and in that lineup and ballpark I like his chances of going 35/25 this year. If I'm wrong, it hurts badly, but if I'm right - then it pays off big time and I have the far and away best 2b on my team.

As an actual ballplayer, I hate him and wouldn't really want him on my team. Way too much of a free swinger, poor defensively, etc. However, those two things don't matter for much in fantasy baseball as he could have an OBP of a paltry .330 but still bat .300 hit 40 hrs and swipe close to 30 bags. And that, in my mind, is a quality fantasy player.

[TheYanks04]

I would point out that the first round is not the place for high risk/high reward players. It is the first round...they are SUPPOSED to perform.

[Yoda]

I would point out that the first round is not the place for high risk/high reward players. It is the first round...they are SUPPOSED to perform.

Very true. I probably wouldn't consider him in the first round. Probably late second is where I would put him. But also don't forget the depth at 2B. There is a significant drop off after Soriano. That is probably why people still rate him so high. I think he will go 30-30 again in 05 which with the position depth, should put him up there.

[Woolly]

I think that a lot of his value comes from the fact that he plays second. That position is very very thin for 2005. Not many 2B are going to come near his numbers. Just make sure that you are in a league that doesn't care about Ks from your hitters.