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Playing by the halves.

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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:50 pm

davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?


He misses more starts though towards the end of the year, though. He always seems to finish with like 29 from missing 4 or 5 late season starts (except last year). His K's and wins are lower in September than any other month and his WHIP is higher than any other month. Not to mention he posts a modest 23-18 career September record (was 2-4 last September).


Correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA is what counts, and he is lower in August and September than in June and July. And in his entire career, he has 6 less starts in the finals 2 months as opposed ot the middle two months. That's practically nothing.

You may now resume removing your foot from your mouth :-D


I didn't know we were playing in a 5x1 league, where the only category is ERA. This topic is from a fantasy standpoint.


WHIP in the middle 2 months... 1.05
WHIP in the final 2 months... 1.04

W/GS in the middle 2 months... .54
W/GS in the final 2 moonths... .54

K/9 in the middle 2 months... 10.1
K/9 in the final 2 months... 10.5

So basically he's the same in W and WHIP, better in ERA and K's, and you're claiming he gets worse at the end of the year?
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:54 pm

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?


He misses more starts though towards the end of the year, though. He always seems to finish with like 29 from missing 4 or 5 late season starts (except last year). His K's and wins are lower in September than any other month and his WHIP is higher than any other month. Not to mention he posts a modest 23-18 career September record (was 2-4 last September).


Correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA is what counts, and he is lower in August and September than in June and July. And in his entire career, he has 6 less starts in the finals 2 months as opposed ot the middle two months. That's practically nothing.

You may now resume removing your foot from your mouth :-D


I didn't know we were playing in a 5x1 league, where the only category is ERA. This topic is from a fantasy standpoint.


WHIP in the middle 2 months... 1.05
WHIP in the final 2 months... 1.04

W/GS in the middle 2 months... .54
W/GS in the final 2 moonths... .54

So basically he's the same in W and WHIP, better in ERA, and you're claiming he gets worse at the end of the year?


From a fantasy standpoint, by all means. If you play less, you put up less, not worse, numbers. Quantity is all that matters in fantasy sports.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:56 pm

Give it up...
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 10:04 pm

LBJackal wrote:Give it up...

Why should I give it up? If Pedro performs worse from a fantasy standpoint in September, it is relevent. If he gets say, ten worse k's that month, and you can get a player who, from history, gets ten more normally that month, that's a swing in 20 ks.

That is relevent.

This strategy works. My dad and I win pay leagues every year from little quirks like this.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 10:09 pm

You very well might have, but Pedro hasn't had bad endings to seasons. Maybe you just picked the wrong player to give for an example... I'm sure there are some that have actually declined or missed significant in August and September.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 25, 2005 10:47 pm

davidmarver wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Rather than argue hypotheticals, tell me which catchers consistently wear down and post worse numbers late in the season. I look at the actual numbers and just see a lot of randomness. Last year, Lieberthal batted .379 and Kendall batted .400 in September. Clearly not ALL catchers get so fatigued that their numbers fall in August and Septermber. So, rather than leave us in the dark, name some names and let's look at whether they really have a consistent pattern of fatiguing and posting poor numbers in Aug. and Sept. nearly every year.


Look at games played per month. The less amount of games a player plays in, the less his other non-average based, numbers will help out. Kendall played in less games in September last year, and in his career, than any other month.


Games played per month aren't a stat counted in any league..And I imagine almost every regular player plays fewer games in September because of September call-ups and resting players after you clinch. It has little to do with fatigue and a lot to do with team strategies.

Now, would you please stop charry-picking meaningless info (and not even getting that right) and answer the question I asked. You say you and your dad use this strategy all the time. So, you must have a whole bunch of players that you have used this strategy with effectively,

Name them. And let's see whether their results really display the pattern you say they do.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 11:18 pm

We had three teams last year and won in two of them. (All three were 12-team leagues).

First team :
Last season I shipped off Lowell and Hernandez a week before the break for Santana and Troy Glaus. Glaus hit a bunch of HR to end the season while Santana went on the greatest stretch I've ever seen a pitcher go on. Note: Santana had no history of second half success...we just really thought his first half was a fluke.

Also traded Mike Sweeney away a week after the break for Phil Nevin. Sweeney went on to get hurt and only hit 6 hr after the break, while Nevin's numbers barely trailed off his first half.

Traded Posada, who had been our utility player, for Aubrey Huff towards the middle of May. Huff, who had been slumping, broke out and had a nice second half like always, hitting .331 with 16hr, and 52 rbi.

Second Team :
Not as much action on this team.

First trade was a three for two player deal.
We traded Cliff Lee and Mark Mulder, who always has a better first half, for Barry Zito, who is a second half pitcher (never really picked it up last year though), Chad Cordero, who came in strong, and Bartolo Colon, who was slightly more of a 2nd half pitcher. Trade worked out well. Lee blew up and Mulder had an injury. Colon finally snapped out of it, Cordero notched a dozen or so saves. Zito never really did anything though.

Our only other trade in this league was Eric Byrnes, who always starts out hot, for Geoff Jenkins, who normally heats up as the year goes on. To be 100% honest though, we were expecting Jenkins to get hurt and tried shopping him, but we were glad at the end when no one took him.

Third Team :
This team came in third place.

The only trade we made was Mulder for Zito straight up. Zito never heated up like we thought he would, but Mulder certainly trailed off.

You can say we got lucky...some of it is luck, but there still are a lot of trends that you can follow.
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Postby The Jury » Tue Jan 25, 2005 11:33 pm

LBJackal wrote:Seems to be mostly luck to go into the year with that strategy. I can't see it paying off very much if at all. However, trading a guy whose on fire, that's a different story. But drafting people with the intent of trading them at the break :-? I don't think it's predictable enough to be effective.


Agreed. I don't think it'd be a good idea to draft based upon splits, but it could be beneficial to make trades during the season based on players who are overachieving or those who are due to breakout sooner or later.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 26, 2005 12:04 am

Basically, this strategy comes down to a few lucky trades, IMO. Neither Glaus nor Nevin have any real pattern pre/post ASB. While Zito does, it's largely based on one big split from 2002. The difference in other years is tiny to nonexistent. Mulder had no pattern until his 2004 performance. Posada has no post asb decline. Byrnes does, but it's based on a whole 150 ABs in 2002-03. Not to much of a suprise to find that there was no real drop off from him in 2004.

Anybody who relies on this as a strategy is just counting on luck to carry them through.
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:29 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Basically, this strategy comes down to a few lucky trades, IMO. Neither Glaus nor Nevin have any real pattern pre/post ASB. While Zito does, it's largely based on one big split from 2002. The difference in other years is tiny to nonexistent. Mulder had no pattern until his 2004 performance. Posada has no post asb decline. Byrnes does, but it's based on a whole 150 ABs in 2002-03. Not to much of a suprise to find that there was no real drop off from him in 2004.

Anybody who relies on this as a strategy is just counting on luck to carry them through.


Don't be too sure.
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