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Playing by the halves.

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Postby Yoda » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:54 pm

I think it is mostly a gamble to play it by halves. Certain players seem to perform well at certain times of the season but there is no way to guarantee or predict this from year to year.

There are certain instances when you can play this game though. One of the things I will do in 05 is to draft Smoltz and ride him for a few starts... Then once everyone falls in love with him all over again, I will trade him for everything he is worth. And more.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:03 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If you look at it, very few players really do have a consistent split like this. Splits like this ar emuch more likely to be just a matter of luck then some true sign of player tendencies.


I think it is more a matter of fatigue than anything else.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:08 pm

davidmarver wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If you look at it, very few players really do have a consistent split like this. Splits like this ar emuch more likely to be just a matter of luck then some true sign of player tendencies.


I think it is more a matter of fatigue than anything else.


On what do you base that? One thing that suggests otherwise is if you look at the monthly splits, rather than the pre/post ASB. Even somebody like Lowell or Magglio will have a pattern where they'll have a lousy July and August, followed by a great September, or a lousy July, great August, lousy September. If it's fatigue, you would expect to see a steady downward trend on a month by month basis and you almost never see that.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:13 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If you look at it, very few players really do have a consistent split like this. Splits like this ar emuch more likely to be just a matter of luck then some true sign of player tendencies.


I think it is more a matter of fatigue than anything else.


On what do you base that? One thing that suggests otherwise is if you look at the monthly splits, rather than the pre/post ASB. Even somebody like Lowell or Magglio will have a pattern where they'll have a lousy July and August, followed by a great September, or a lousy July, great August, lousy September. If it's fatigue, you would expect to see a steady downward trend on a month by month basis and you almost never see that.


So you mean to tell me that catchers don't wear down from the long August days and heat? There is fatigue in this formula.

One good strategy I rarely let anyone in on is to draft a top-notch catcher and ship him before the break for a top-notch (insert position here) player. Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:17 pm

davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:26 pm

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?


He misses more starts though towards the end of the year, though. He always seems to finish with like 29 from missing 4 or 5 late season starts (except last year). His K's and wins are lower in September than any other month and his WHIP is higher than any other month. Not to mention he posts a modest 23-18 career September record (was 2-4 last September).
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:31 pm

davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?


He misses more starts though towards the end of the year, though. He always seems to finish with like 29 from missing 4 or 5 late season starts (except last year). His K's and wins are lower in September than any other month and his WHIP is higher than any other month. Not to mention he posts a modest 23-18 career September record (was 2-4 last September).


Correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA is what counts, and he is lower in August and September than in June and July. And in his entire career, he has 6 less starts in the finals 2 months as opposed ot the middle two months. That's practically nothing.

You may now resume removing your foot from your mouth :-D
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:36 pm

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?


He misses more starts though towards the end of the year, though. He always seems to finish with like 29 from missing 4 or 5 late season starts (except last year). His K's and wins are lower in September than any other month and his WHIP is higher than any other month. Not to mention he posts a modest 23-18 career September record (was 2-4 last September).


Correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA is what counts, and he is lower in August and September than in June and July. And in his entire career, he has 6 less starts in the finals 2 months as opposed ot the middle two months. That's practically nothing.

You may now resume removing your foot from your mouth :-D


I didn't know we were playing in a 5x1 league, where the only category is ERA. This topic is from a fantasy standpoint. If a pitcher is less effective in three other categories later in the year, I'll just have to bring in a clutch machine like Jake Peavy, who was named NL Pitcher of the month in August, and NL Pitcher of the Week of September 23.

Pedro is 68-18 in the first two months...56-33 in the last two months. That's quite a difference. Whether it's competition, fatigue, whatever...it is nice to know in fantasy.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:36 pm

davidmarver wrote:So you mean to tell me that catchers don't wear down from the long August days and heat? There is fatigue in this formula.

One good strategy I rarely let anyone in on is to draft a top-notch catcher and ship him before the break for a top-notch (insert position here) player. Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Rather than argue hypotheticals, tell me which catchers consistently wear down and post worse numbers late in the season. I look at the actual numbers and just see a lot of randomness. Last year, Lieberthal batted .379 and Kendall batted .400 in September. Clearly not ALL catchers get so fatigued that their numbers fall in August and Septermber. So, rather than leave us in the dark, name some names and let's look at whether they really have a consistent pattern of fatiguing and posting poor numbers in Aug. and Sept. nearly every year.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:44 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
davidmarver wrote:So you mean to tell me that catchers don't wear down from the long August days and heat? There is fatigue in this formula.

One good strategy I rarely let anyone in on is to draft a top-notch catcher and ship him before the break for a top-notch (insert position here) player. Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?


Rather than argue hypotheticals, tell me which catchers consistently wear down and post worse numbers late in the season. I look at the actual numbers and just see a lot of randomness. Last year, Lieberthal batted .379 and Kendall batted .400 in September. Clearly not ALL catchers get so fatigued that their numbers fall in August and Septermber. So, rather than leave us in the dark, name some names and let's look at whether they really have a consistent pattern of fatiguing and posting poor numbers in Aug. and Sept. nearly every year.


Look at games played per month. The less amount of games a player plays in, the less his other non-average based, numbers will help out. Kendall played in less games in September last year, and in his career, than any other month.
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