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Playing by the halves.

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Playing by the halves.

Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 7:14 pm

Does anyone else draft guys who perform well only in the first half of the season (ie. Mike Lowell) and then trade them a week before the break for more than he's worth?

Do you think this a viable strategy or is too much luck involved?
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Jan 25, 2005 7:36 pm

its not luck that's involved so much as incompetent league mates. if they don't look at a guys splits (or know that lowell tails offin the 2nd half.... common, peopel!!) then it works, but then again, any time you can trade for someone "for more than he's worth", it's a good strategy.
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Postby Yanks Ruined It » Tue Jan 25, 2005 7:40 pm

Risky,,, I know what you are thinking and i guess it could work for a very limited few players ,it seems there are players out there that do this on a yearly basis but which half are they going to show up is the ? that seems to be what I have noticed, for me it is way too risky to base a strategy on this,,,, if you do this I would really like to know how it works,,, good luck
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 7:43 pm

Last year I had some good success with the strategy. I was able to acquire Glaus, who put up good numbers at the end, and Santana, who had been faltering, for Lowell and Livan Hernandez. In years' past, I had been able to get a lot for Berkman at the break, to see him falter, although last year was an exception.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 7:48 pm

Seems to be mostly luck to go into the year with that strategy. I can't see it paying off very much if at all. However, trading a guy whose on fire, that's a different story. But drafting people with the intent of trading them at the break :-? I don't think it's predictable enough to be effective.
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Postby io » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:08 pm

i think its more of going with your gut in the middle of the season and feeling out which players will tail off and which are in for a turnaround... some players get off to bad starts, but it would be very strange to see them do poorly for a full season (i.e. chipper and delgado last year) ... so they become 2nd half players for that year only.... i dont think its set in stone that a guy like Lowell will have a good first half next year.. you just dont know that
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:10 pm

io wrote:i think its more of going with your gut in the middle of the season and feeling out which players will tail off and which are in for a turnaround... some players get off to bad starts, but it would be very strange to see them do poorly for a full season (i.e. chipper and delgado last year) ... so they become 2nd half players for that year only.... i dont think its set in stone that a guy like Lowell will have a good first half next year.. you just dont know that


Mike Lowell will have a good first half next year, followed by a bad second half.

I know that.
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Postby io » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:12 pm

davidmarver wrote:
io wrote:i think its more of going with your gut in the middle of the season and feeling out which players will tail off and which are in for a turnaround... some players get off to bad starts, but it would be very strange to see them do poorly for a full season (i.e. chipper and delgado last year) ... so they become 2nd half players for that year only.... i dont think its set in stone that a guy like Lowell will have a good first half next year.. you just dont know that


Mike Lowell will have a good first half next year, followed by a bad second half.

I know that.


no you dont
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Postby io » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:35 pm

sorry, i didnt want to sound harsh.. maybe some players go through trends of getting off to hot/cold starts, but it doesn't always stay that way... its more unpredictable then that... are there any guys that were 1st half players for their entire career?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:52 pm

If you look at it, very few players really do have a consistent split like this. Splits like this ar emuch more likely to be just a matter of luck then some true sign of player tendencies.
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