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Abreu vs. Manny

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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:37 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:welcome to the cafe DM ;-D

Nice job with the argument against LBJ and SA - they're just a couple numbers punks - dont listen to them.

:-b

anyways - how do you explain the drastic drop in Peavy's stats after two +4ERA, +1.3WHIP seasons prior to last yr?


I've found LBJ pretty cool, but also unwilling to change his views. What a punk ;-)

He was 21 and 22 when he posted those seasons...not to mention the fact those were in Qualcomm with a suspect bullpen. The pen last year for the Padres really helped Peavy out. Plus, he's clutch!
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Postby Pedantic » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:46 am

Sorry to painfully prolong this, but... No one mentions DIPS, eh? I guess it is pretty passé by now. Oh, well, I've never been one to care. ;-7

Peavy: 3.21
Zambrano: 3.65
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Postby fantasyfiend » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:04 am

Pedantic wrote:Sorry to painfully prolong this, but... No one mentions DIPS, eh? I guess it is pretty passé by now. Oh, well, I've never been one to care. ;-7

Peavy: 3.21
Zambrano: 3.65


Its funny, you simply destroyed the argument in a matter of 2 minutes.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:14 am

DIPS doesn't take ballpark and defense into account, or many other factors. My ERA system I created does ( :-] ) and according to it Peavy should have been at 2.75 and Zam should have been at 2.91. Not as drastic a change as DIPS would say.

And I don't change my views because I'm right }:-)

BTW I'd take Manny over Abreu. Just to keep this on topic.
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:15 am

LBJackal wrote:DIPS doesn't take ballpark and defense into account, or many other factors. My ERA system I created does ( :-] ) and according to it Peavy should have been at 2.75 and Zam should have been at 2.91. Not as drastic a change as DIPS would say.

And I don't change my views because I'm right }:-)

BTW I'd take Manny over Abreu. Just to keep this on topic.


It's too bad that formula of yours doesn't take a pitchers clutch ability into consideration.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:22 am

davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:DIPS doesn't take ballpark and defense into account, or many other factors. My ERA system I created does ( :-] ) and according to it Peavy should have been at 2.75 and Zam should have been at 2.91. Not as drastic a change as DIPS would say.

And I don't change my views because I'm right }:-)

BTW I'd take Manny over Abreu. Just to keep this on topic.


It's too bad that formula of yours doesn't take a pitchers clutch ability into consideration.


Yeah I'll have to create another one especially for Peavy and his clutch-ness ;-7
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:50 am

How did a Manny/Abreu thread, turn into a Peavy thread?

I would take Manny in the long run, but for 1 year i might go Abreu. I'm not sure why Abreus year was called a career year, since he matched last years ops and RC/27, in previous years. And his value was only $2 higher then ever before.

Getting to Peavy and clutch, this thread is the most blatant use on misusing numbers i have seen in here. To call a guy anything, much less clutch, because he fared well in a small sample size of stats like risp, is just plain silly. Understand that a given year of era, can have holes wide enough to drive a truck through. I like Peavy alot, but his 04 era was way off the mark. The DIPS era was already shown. In a given year, luck can play a huge part in era. Hit rate %, and strand rate % for example. They can effect era if the % rate is off the average rate. Peavy's strand rate was a obscene 84%, 9% over average. A 5% difference can effect era. Using xERA, Peavys era was 2.98. His 2.28 era was a fluke. This means he had quite a bit off luck last year. With no luck, good or bad, his true era is in the 3, to low 3 range. Don't judge a player by one years era, and his numbers in small sample size stats.
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:56 am

HOOTIE wrote:How did a Manny/Abreu thread, turn into a Peavy thread?

I would take Manny in the long run, but for 1 year i might go Abreu. I'm not sure why Abreus year was called a career year, since he matched last years ops and RC/27, in previous years. And his value was only $2 higher then ever before.

Getting to Peavy and clutch, this thread is the most blatant use on misusing numbers i have seen in here. To call a guy anything, much less clutch, because he fared well in a small sample size of stats like risp, is just plain silly. Understand that a given year of era, can have holes wide enough to drive a truck through. I like Peavy alot, but his 04 era was way off the mark. The DIPS era was already shown. In a given year, luck can play a huge part in era. Hit rate %, and strand rate % for example. They can effect era if the % rate is off the average rate. Peavy's strand rate was a obscene 84%, 9% over average. A 5% difference can effect era. Using xERA, Peavys era was 2.98. His 2.28 era was a fluke. This means he had quite a bit off luck last year. With no luck, good or bad, his true era is in the 3, to low 3 range. Don't judge a player by one years era, and his numbers in small sample size stats.


I would not call it luck when he pitches in possibly the best pitchers park and has a great bullpen behind him to bail him out of jams. Those drive down ERA's plenty. He still plays in Petco this year with a great bullpen. Expect more of the same.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jan 26, 2005 5:01 am

davidmarver wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:How did a Manny/Abreu thread, turn into a Peavy thread?

I would take Manny in the long run, but for 1 year i might go Abreu. I'm not sure why Abreus year was called a career year, since he matched last years ops and RC/27, in previous years. And his value was only $2 higher then ever before.

Getting to Peavy and clutch, this thread is the most blatant use on misusing numbers i have seen in here. To call a guy anything, much less clutch, because he fared well in a small sample size of stats like risp, is just plain silly. Understand that a given year of era, can have holes wide enough to drive a truck through. I like Peavy alot, but his 04 era was way off the mark. The DIPS era was already shown. In a given year, luck can play a huge part in era. Hit rate %, and strand rate % for example. They can effect era if the % rate is off the average rate. Peavy's strand rate was a obscene 84%, 9% over average. A 5% difference can effect era. Using xERA, Peavys era was 2.98. His 2.28 era was a fluke. This means he had quite a bit off luck last year. With no luck, good or bad, his true era is in the 3, to low 3 range. Don't judge a player by one years era, and his numbers in small sample size stats.


I would not call it luck when he pitches in possibly the best pitchers park and has a great bullpen behind him to bail him out of jams. Those drive down ERA's plenty. He still plays in Petco this year with a great bullpen. Expect more of the same.


Don't argue with Hootie about stats. You'll learn that pretty quick :-D
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jan 26, 2005 5:16 am

I didn't find those stats very meaningful. All I remember about them is a formula that obviously, in this case, did not predict it correctly. I don't call it luck, I call it a problem with the formula.
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