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Abreu vs. Manny

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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 10:02 pm

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm just saying...the ability to bear down and play good, clutch baseball, is not luck."

Agreed 100 percent. In order for that argument to work for Peavey, though, he would have to do a MUCH better job of playing clutch baseball than any other pitcher in the league. Are you saying he has super-human mental fortitude?! He's better in the clutch than RJ, Schilling, the Rocket, or Pedro?! Every other pitcher, both in 2004 and just about anytime in baseball history, with a 1.20 WHIP has an ERA considerably higher than 2.27.

That's the bottom line: in order for Peavey's 2.27/1.20 to make sense as anything other than a statistical anomaly, he had to have done something in 2004 that no other pitcher did, and no other pitcher has ever done.


Here are those pitchers stats last year in (OBA with RISP, OBA with RISP and less than two outs)

Peavy : .185, .109
Johnson : .198, .163
Rocket : .193, .143
Schilling : .221, .192
Pedro : .197, .129

So there we have it. You figure a difference in .010 is the equivalent of one run. If he posted Schilling's #'s for here, his ERA would rise to 2.92.

Have I found the magic number?


If anything this should tell you how lucky he was.... I can't believe you're using this as evidence to prove it wasn't a fluke :-o


I don't think there is a single way I could ever convince you the contrary, but I have provided numbers after numbers to support Peavy's continuance, while there have been very little numbers to the contrary.

You cannot argue against the RISP numbers. That is a measure of how clutch a player is.


Wow.... you're not getting my point. I know what Peavy did LAST YEAR, but he won't do taht NEXT YEAR which is the point. He probably won't have the same LUCK.

I don't know why you argue that he didn't benefit greatly from luck.... have you done studies to see the control pitchers have over the stats you mention? Do you have reason to believe it? I'm finished discusiing Peavy... once you name your price for a wager, I'll continue again. Let's see how confident you really are in him.


I'm not going to put monetary value on it since there's no way to ensure you'll pay when I win...we could bet on signatures. You win, I put anything you want in mine...I win, vice versa.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 10:05 pm

davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm just saying...the ability to bear down and play good, clutch baseball, is not luck."

Agreed 100 percent. In order for that argument to work for Peavey, though, he would have to do a MUCH better job of playing clutch baseball than any other pitcher in the league. Are you saying he has super-human mental fortitude?! He's better in the clutch than RJ, Schilling, the Rocket, or Pedro?! Every other pitcher, both in 2004 and just about anytime in baseball history, with a 1.20 WHIP has an ERA considerably higher than 2.27.

That's the bottom line: in order for Peavey's 2.27/1.20 to make sense as anything other than a statistical anomaly, he had to have done something in 2004 that no other pitcher did, and no other pitcher has ever done.


Here are those pitchers stats last year in (OBA with RISP, OBA with RISP and less than two outs)

Peavy : .185, .109
Johnson : .198, .163
Rocket : .193, .143
Schilling : .221, .192
Pedro : .197, .129

So there we have it. You figure a difference in .010 is the equivalent of one run. If he posted Schilling's #'s for here, his ERA would rise to 2.92.

Have I found the magic number?


If anything this should tell you how lucky he was.... I can't believe you're using this as evidence to prove it wasn't a fluke :-o


I don't think there is a single way I could ever convince you the contrary, but I have provided numbers after numbers to support Peavy's continuance, while there have been very little numbers to the contrary.

You cannot argue against the RISP numbers. That is a measure of how clutch a player is.


Wow.... you're not getting my point. I know what Peavy did LAST YEAR, but he won't do taht NEXT YEAR which is the point. He probably won't have the same LUCK.

I don't know why you argue that he didn't benefit greatly from luck.... have you done studies to see the control pitchers have over the stats you mention? Do you have reason to believe it? I'm finished discusiing Peavy... once you name your price for a wager, I'll continue again. Let's see how confident you really are in him.


I'm not going to put monetary value on it since there's no way to ensure you'll pay when I win...we could bet on signatures. You win, I put anything you want in mine...I win, vice versa.


Well you wouldn't need to worry about collecting the money since it's impossible Peavy will be even close to repeating :-D and if not for me already betting my avatar with somebody else, I'd put it up for grabs. You just watch this season.... I think the idea of you realizing that you were wrong about the luck factor will be enough of a prize for me.
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Postby LCBOY » Wed Jan 26, 2005 12:23 am

George_Foreman wrote:they're both overrated. abreu had a career year and manny doesn't play full time (meaning his average doesn't help as much, etc.) i might take manny in the early 2nd, but i'd take ichiro before the lot of 'em.


Manny plays full time:

1995: 137/144 games played (95.1%)
1996: 152/161 (94.4%)
1997: 150/161 (93.2%)
1998: 150/162 (92.6%)
1999: 147/162 (90.7%)
2000: 118/162 (72.8%)
2001: 142/162 (87.7%)
2002: 120/162 (74.1%)
2003: 154/162 (95.1%)
2004: 152/160 (95.0%)

He broke his hand in 2002 sliding at home plate. Not sure what happened in 2000? :-°
Last edited by LCBOY on Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jan 26, 2005 12:49 am

welcome to the cafe DM ;-D

Nice job with the argument against LBJ and SA - they're just a couple numbers punks - dont listen to them.

:-b

anyways - how do you explain the drastic drop in Peavy's stats after two +4ERA, +1.3WHIP seasons prior to last yr?
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:17 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:how do you explain the drastic drop in Peavy's stats after two +4ERA, +1.3WHIP seasons prior to last yr?


A huge increase in K's and a decrease in BB's - not to mention he gave up less than half as many HR per 9 IP. If you find a way to predict that, let me know!
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Postby The Jury » Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:34 am

Amazinz wrote:I'd want Manny over the next three years. Their value is pretty similar right now IMO but Abreu's value has a better chance of falling off over the next three years because it relies on his stolen bases.


Exactly. Well said ;-D
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Postby Yoda » Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:36 am

Someone mentioned Peavy's strand rate in 04. 84% strand rate according to Shandler. Compare that to RJ's 74% and Santana's 77%.

Another important stat is HR. He gave 13 all season, 9 in the second half.

Peavy is a tremendous talent with a bright future. But luck had a lot to do with his 04 performance.
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Wow...

Postby Ballwreckers » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:01 am

Can we get back on track here. I am getting a major headache trying to read through all the Peavy posts. I thought this was about Manny Vs Abreu? Though, I do say some good points about Peavy,but it just doesn't belong in here.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:05 am

Hey don't blame me, Marver started it!

Sure, I incited him with some tiny text - but tiny text doesn't count as a hijacking, it was more of an aside.
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:28 am

LBJackal wrote:Hey don't blame me, Marver started it!

Sure, I incited him with some tiny text - but tiny text doesn't count as a hijacking, it was more of an aside.


hahahahaha
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