Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm just saying...the ability to bear down and play good, clutch baseball, is not luck."
Agreed 100 percent. In order for that argument to work for Peavey, though, he would have to do a MUCH better job of playing clutch baseball than any other pitcher in the league. Are you saying he has super-human mental fortitude?! He's better in the clutch than RJ, Schilling, the Rocket, or Pedro?! Every other pitcher, both in 2004 and just about anytime in baseball history, with a 1.20 WHIP has an ERA considerably higher than 2.27.
That's the bottom line: in order for Peavey's 2.27/1.20 to make sense as anything other than a statistical anomaly, he had to have done something in 2004 that no other pitcher did, and no other pitcher has ever done.
Here are those pitchers stats last year in (OBA with RISP, OBA with RISP and less than two outs)
Peavy : .185, .109 Johnson : .198, .163 Rocket : .193, .143 Schilling : .221, .192 Pedro : .197, .129
So there we have it. You figure a difference in .010 is the equivalent of one run. If he posted Schilling's #'s for here, his ERA would rise to 2.92.
Have I found the magic number?
If anything this should tell you how lucky he was.... I can't believe you're using this as evidence to prove it wasn't a fluke
I don't think there is a single way I could ever convince you the contrary, but I have provided numbers after numbers to support Peavy's continuance, while there have been very little numbers to the contrary.
You cannot argue against the RISP numbers. That is a measure of how clutch a player is.
Wow.... you're not getting my point. I know what Peavy did LAST YEAR, but he won't do taht NEXT YEAR which is the point. He probably won't have the same LUCK.
I don't know why you argue that he didn't benefit greatly from luck.... have you done studies to see the control pitchers have over the stats you mention? Do you have reason to believe it? I'm finished discusiing Peavy... once you name your price for a wager, I'll continue again. Let's see how confident you really are in him.
I'm not going to put monetary value on it since there's no way to ensure you'll pay when I win...we could bet on signatures. You win, I put anything you want in mine...I win, vice versa.
Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm just saying...the ability to bear down and play good, clutch baseball, is not luck."
Agreed 100 percent. In order for that argument to work for Peavey, though, he would have to do a MUCH better job of playing clutch baseball than any other pitcher in the league. Are you saying he has super-human mental fortitude?! He's better in the clutch than RJ, Schilling, the Rocket, or Pedro?! Every other pitcher, both in 2004 and just about anytime in baseball history, with a 1.20 WHIP has an ERA considerably higher than 2.27.
That's the bottom line: in order for Peavey's 2.27/1.20 to make sense as anything other than a statistical anomaly, he had to have done something in 2004 that no other pitcher did, and no other pitcher has ever done.
Here are those pitchers stats last year in (OBA with RISP, OBA with RISP and less than two outs)
Peavy : .185, .109 Johnson : .198, .163 Rocket : .193, .143 Schilling : .221, .192 Pedro : .197, .129
So there we have it. You figure a difference in .010 is the equivalent of one run. If he posted Schilling's #'s for here, his ERA would rise to 2.92.
Have I found the magic number?
If anything this should tell you how lucky he was.... I can't believe you're using this as evidence to prove it wasn't a fluke
I don't think there is a single way I could ever convince you the contrary, but I have provided numbers after numbers to support Peavy's continuance, while there have been very little numbers to the contrary.
You cannot argue against the RISP numbers. That is a measure of how clutch a player is.
Wow.... you're not getting my point. I know what Peavy did LAST YEAR, but he won't do taht NEXT YEAR which is the point. He probably won't have the same LUCK.
I don't know why you argue that he didn't benefit greatly from luck.... have you done studies to see the control pitchers have over the stats you mention? Do you have reason to believe it? I'm finished discusiing Peavy... once you name your price for a wager, I'll continue again. Let's see how confident you really are in him.
I'm not going to put monetary value on it since there's no way to ensure you'll pay when I win...we could bet on signatures. You win, I put anything you want in mine...I win, vice versa.
Well you wouldn't need to worry about collecting the money since it's impossible Peavy will be even close to repeating and if not for me already betting my avatar with somebody else, I'd put it up for grabs. You just watch this season.... I think the idea of you realizing that you were wrong about the luck factor will be enough of a prize for me.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
George_Foreman wrote:they're both overrated. abreu had a career year and manny doesn't play full time (meaning his average doesn't help as much, etc.) i might take manny in the early 2nd, but i'd take ichiro before the lot of 'em.
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:how do you explain the drastic drop in Peavy's stats after two +4ERA, +1.3WHIP seasons prior to last yr?
A huge increase in K's and a decrease in BB's - not to mention he gave up less than half as many HR per 9 IP. If you find a way to predict that, let me know!
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
Amazinz wrote:I'd want Manny over the next three years. Their value is pretty similar right now IMO but Abreu's value has a better chance of falling off over the next three years because it relies on his stolen bases.
Exactly. Well said
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
Can we get back on track here. I am getting a major headache trying to read through all the Peavy posts. I thought this was about Manny Vs Abreu? Though, I do say some good points about Peavy,but it just doesn't belong in here.
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by davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 10:02 pm 
and if not for me already betting my avatar with somebody else, I'd put it up for grabs. You just watch this season.... I think the idea of you realizing that you were wrong about the luck factor will be enough of a prize for me.
