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Bonds.....explain to me why he...?

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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:55 pm

cordscords wrote:i hate all this lineup protection crap = 50 hrs. its bonds! lou pinella even walked him with the bases loaded once! expect 40-45 hrs again this year.


dude, the guy hit 70 HRs in one season, and is 3rd overall in career HRs. Dont you think he's able to hit 50 in one season? I think so. Alou, though he wont stop pitchers/managers from walking Bonds more than 150 times, will probably reduce Bonds walks by a fair amount, say around 30. That, combined with the slightly (and I mean slightly) better pitches he'll get with Alou behind him, is enough to allow Bonds to hit 50 HRs.
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Postby nikku88 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:10 pm

Why do so many people assume Bonds is off whatever he was taking before?
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Postby RynMan » Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:19 pm

kentx12 wrote:I would love to know how you come up with 125 rbi's. I dont think he should go any where near the top of the 1st round.


Correct me if im wrong, but didnt he have 101 last year? I believe he will see more pitches, and hence hit more home runs. Maybe 25 more RBIs is generous, but i dont its out of reach. What has changed around him to make us think he will do worse than last season?
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Postby bleach168 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:57 pm

Doesn't really matter who bats in front of Bonds or behind him. Bonds is playing at such a higher level then the rest of the baseball world that no one can protect him.

*insert rant about how the player most likely to win MVP is ranked 7th overall in fantasy*
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:41 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:
cordscords wrote:i hate all this lineup protection crap = 50 hrs. its bonds! lou pinella even walked him with the bases loaded once! expect 40-45 hrs again this year.


dude, the guy hit 70 HRs in one season, and is 3rd overall in career HRs. Dont you think he's able to hit 50 in one season? I think so. Alou, though he wont stop pitchers/managers from walking Bonds more than 150 times, will probably reduce Bonds walks by a fair amount, say around 30. That, combined with the slightly (and I mean slightly) better pitches he'll get with Alou behind him, is enough to allow Bonds to hit 50 HRs.
That year he hit 70 is the only time he ever hit over 50. Thats it. At some point, the guy is going to breakdown. It will be sooner rather than later. And you don't want to be that guy throwing down that pick in the first round when he breaks down.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:43 pm

I just dont think this will be the year he breaks down. When he does break down, I think it will be gradual. I dont think he'll just fall apart all the sudden.
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Postby blankman » Tue Jan 25, 2005 12:39 am

nikku88 wrote:Why do so many people assume Bonds is off whatever he was taking before?


Good point.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jan 25, 2005 1:12 am

Amazinz wrote:There is a perception that Bonds is less valuable in 5x5 because of all the walks. It's not true but I think that's why he slips.


Good call. Last year Bonds $37, was only beaten by RJ and Pujols. Bonds $111 in the last 3 years, is only topped by Pujols.
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Postby lesgrant » Tue Jan 25, 2005 11:17 am

blankman wrote:
nikku88 wrote:Why do so many people assume Bonds is off whatever he was taking before?


Good point.


;-D In fact, that same point could be made for much of the league. I would say the current/new policy will only discourage the marginal user or the person who is thinking about juicing. But that’s another thread entirely.

The low ABs really make Bonds a frustrating pick. I see his HRs in the low to mid 40s, as usual. There are several other more attractive options in the 40 HR range that will generate more RBI and more runs.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Jan 25, 2005 11:42 am

Bonds gets drafted 7th because of a number of reasons, many already noted in this thread:

1. His high BB total dilutes the effect his avg has on your overall team in that category. .360 looks real nice, but if it is only over 375 ABs, it's affect on your avg category is the same as if Bonds had been on th DL for 2 months.

2. His age. He is going to fall off sooner or later. That makes him a more risky pick compared to the guys going in front of him which are all pretty young (except for maybe RJ if you want to count him in the first round). He is probably all-right for this year, but as you get older it is obviously more likely you get hurt with a pulled hammy or whatever.

3. Roids. This adds in the flame out/Giambi effect to the danger list.

4. He is an OF that does not steal bases anymore in any notable number. Guys like Vlad will give you 15+, Beltran 35+, Abreu 30+. Manny does not steal, but he is a lot younger and has a far better offense around him for rbis and runs.

5. Not that it should be a factor, but a small percentage of the people will not draft someone they dislike intensely and Bonds and Pedro annually vie for the most hated ballplayer distinction.

6. Bonds is not part of the MLBPA merchandising agreement. Hence some sites like ESPN list him as "SF Outfielder" on their draft board. The casual player may miss him on a few occassions because of that.
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