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Bonds.....explain to me why he...?

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Bonds.....explain to me why he...?

Postby RynMan » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:04 pm

Ok, so i'm working on my projections for next season. Now that he has a little protection behind him, I see him getting less walks. Not a great deal less, but significant enough. Here's my projections from looking at his key indicators:

.360 AVG, 50 HR, 120 RBI, 125 R, 5 SB.

What I want to know is why he slips soo far in the draft? Is it because of the fact that he only gets around 380 at bats? Or is it because we are expecting some drastic decline any year now? In the drafts i have seen he has gone later in the rounds. Here's my projections for Vlad who is a top 3 or 4 pick:

.330 AVG, 43 HR, 130 RBI, 125 R, 18 SB.

Very nice numbers, and I would go as far as putting him above Bonds. But is it really by half a round? I'm not sure. Anyone care to comment on my projections? Any thoughts in general? Thanks guys!
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:10 pm

There is a perception that Bonds is less valuable in 5x5 because of all the walks. It's not true but I think that's why he slips.
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Postby kentx12 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:13 pm

I would love to know how you come up with 125 rbi's. I dont think he should go any where near the top of the 1st round.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:19 pm

I think three reasons he's been slipping in the drafts:

1. His at-bats are extraordinarily low because of all the walks. This makes his extraordinarily high BA less valuable, because the lower at-bats will have less of an effect when it gets averaged in with the BAs from the other players.

2. The BALCO cloud. He's definately off the juice now. Was he last year? The year before? Who knows. I don't know how the BALCO cloud will effect him and I don't think anyone does. The uncertainty has got to drop him a few picks in a draft.

3. His age. He's a freak of nature, to be sure, but at SOME point his body will fail. Maybe not in 2005, but at some point soon. For a keeper league, this will hurt his future value.
Last edited by Secret Avatar on Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:20 pm

Yeah I think 100 RBIs is more realistic. He probably won't get the opportunities to post 125.
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Postby xeifrank » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:32 pm

My projections for Bonds, based on weighted 3 year average is...

Barry Bonds
At Bats: 358
Hits: 129
Runs: 123
RBIs: 96
HRs: 43
SBs: 2

Average: .360

Projected draft position for standard 5x5 league: 7th overall.

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Postby oddmanout7 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:36 pm

Yeah i was suprised to see him at 16th in my league, but since its in a keeper i understand. Nevertheless, i took him and his Balco...
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:37 pm

Amazinz wrote:Yeah I think 100 RBIs is more realistic. He probably won't get the opportunities to post 125.


exactly. Although he probably has the best "per AB" ratio stats of anybody in the game, he doesnt get nearly enough opportunities to get more than 100 RBI.

In a redraft league, I'd say he's worth a top 5 pick. But people dont pick him there for a number of reasons.
1) People hate him as much as or more than any other player in sports
2) He's old, and people dont think he can continue to put up such gaudy numbers (although he will this year)
3) People are scared of the effects of not being on steroids (but I dont believe he was juiced up last year, and look what he did)

In a keeper league, he drops even more, and this time its warranted. Why spend a 1st round pick on a guy that will only get you two years of production (though excellent production at that), when you could draft somebody equally as or slightly less productive that will be around for at least 5 years?
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Postby BigLebowski » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:40 pm

although there is the steroid issue and he is getting older and older, I see this year as being one of his best years. His HRs may not be 70 but his average will be about the same with 50-75 more ab's. I have him with the following projections...52hr 110rbi .360avg and 9sb the average will help more this year due to the increase in ab's
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Postby cordscords » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:49 pm

i hate all this lineup protection crap = 50 hrs. its bonds! lou pinella even walked him with the bases loaded once! expect 40-45 hrs again this year.
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