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Vlad,Tejada,Soriano or Helton? - 4th Overall

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Postby joshheines » Sun Jan 23, 2005 9:36 pm

pgbridge2000 wrote:Vlad

I know a lot of people say this on position scarcity but you have to look at it wholisticly, take say Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Crosby, add there stats, it will be better than taking Miguel Tejada and adding the stats of an outfielder from the same round as Crosby. Tejeda is better than crosby but tejeda doesn't get enough stats to make up for how much better Vlad is than the other outfielder. (in general, exceptions are like soriano's 38/41 season which compares with vlads numbers well, in general a position scarce player won't match up favorably enough with a position rich player)


Position scarcity is real. I'm not sure why people disbelieve. Using Mock Draft II as a guide, Crosby was taken in the 12th round. The only OF taken in the 12th round was Brad Wilkerson.

Further, using rotochamps projections (everyone seems to agree they are good) as a second guide we will pit Vlad/Crosby versus Tejada/Wilkerson:

Vlad/Crosby - 1155 ABs, .297 AVG, 69 HR, 195 runs, 192 RBI, 23 SB
Tejada/Wilks - 1191 ABs, .294 AVG, 68 HR, 207 runs, 207 RBI, 18 SB.

What we end up with is a statistical tie, but realisitcally the numbers give the advantage to Tejada and Wilks. Vlads side had a better AVG, but less ABs = tie. Vlads SB advantage is equal to Tejada's runs advantage. Then you are left with a 1 HR advantage for Vlad and a 15 RBI advantage for Tejada. Umm, position scarcity is a sham, is it?
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Postby AI8818 » Sun Jan 23, 2005 9:38 pm

Alright thanks for that advice man, but still I would like to find out if I should trade my 4 for a 7. It might be better, like I keep saying that I would get a guy with similar numbers and be in the middle of the pack.
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Jan 23, 2005 9:40 pm

joshheines wrote:
pgbridge2000 wrote:Vlad

I know a lot of people say this on position scarcity but you have to look at it wholisticly, take say Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Crosby, add there stats, it will be better than taking Miguel Tejada and adding the stats of an outfielder from the same round as Crosby. Tejeda is better than crosby but tejeda doesn't get enough stats to make up for how much better Vlad is than the other outfielder. (in general, exceptions are like soriano's 38/41 season which compares with vlads numbers well, in general a position scarce player won't match up favorably enough with a position rich player)


Position scarcity is real. I'm not sure why people disbelieve. Using Mock Draft II as a guide, Crosby was taken in the 12th round. The only OF taken in the 12th round was Brad Wilkerson.

Further, using rotochamps projections (everyone seems to agree they are good) as a second guide we will pit Vlad/Crosby versus Tejada/Wilkerson:

Vlad/Crosby - 1155 ABs, .297 AVG, 69 HR, 195 runs, 192 RBI, 23 SB
Tejada/Wilks - 1191 ABs, .294 AVG, 68 HR, 207 runs, 207 RBI, 18 SB.


Not that this example is the defining example of whether position scarcity is a factor (it is obviously a factor, the only question is to waht degree), but those two duos are about even. The extra 27 R+RBI are cancelled out by the 5 extra SB's and 1 HR. It's a wash.
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Postby Joe Mauer » Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:39 am

AI8818 wrote:Alright thanks for that advice man, but still I would like to find out if I should trade my 4 for a 7. It might be better, like I keep saying that I would get a guy with similar numbers and be in the middle of the pack.


Since it as apparent you can trade draft picks and don't care out of a group of players who you want (you seem to like them all for differening reasons, and that's not a bad thing) then I would suggest you NOT trade the No. 4 spot in the snake draft order straight up for the No. 7 spot. You really don't gain anything there. If I were going to make a deal, I'd swap the No. 4 and 7 picks in the first round only if I got his fourth rounder for my fifth or sixth round pick. Then it would be worth while.

As far as position scarcity goes, I am on the fence. I totally understand that a homerun = a homerun no matter where it is from. However, some positions are much more shallow when it comes to talent than others and that has to be factored in as well. Generally I'd say the draft day value of a Soriano or Tejada is increased only somewhat due to this (but moreso in leagues that require you to start only one 2B or SS) and anyone in the OF or at 1B or 3B has their value defalted somewhat. I also must say that the 4 1/2 to 5 category studs retain their value no matter what.

My list:

heres my top 7

Pujols
Vlad
Beltran
Soriano
Arod
Tejada
Helton

Pierz,Castro,Tulo,Espinosa,Gyorko,Goldschmidt,Encarna,Howard,Carter,Cespedes,Marte,Soriano,Brown,Ludwick,Smoak
Strasbg,King F,Harvey,Scherzer,Teheran,Street,Jansen,Hernandez
BA 5,HR 9.5,R 4,RBI 6,SB 2,ERA 12,H+S 8,K 11,W 7.5,WHIP 11,TOT 76 pt 3rd
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Postby ascohen11180 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:03 am

This is one long thread debating a 4th pick. Vlad, A-Rod, Teja, Manny, whatever. Just grab one, smile and worry about finding steals in the later rounds. :-)

(Personally I'd take A-rod over Tejada, but this could change if Delgado goes to Baltimore.)
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:09 am

Soriano=A return of $18 last year and a declining OPS and still being discussed over Tejada, Arod and Manny. I really find that amazing.
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Postby Balco » Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:27 pm

No dout vlad ;-D

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Postby colt4523 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:04 pm

my top 7
pujols
beltran
vlad
arod
bonds
Helton
Tejada

If your league counts walks as points like mine does..barry has accumulated the most points the last 3 years in my league. Arod is second. You might not want to overlook barry like I do (i dont like him).
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Postby Yoda » Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:10 pm

I think Arod will be much better this year. It usually takes about a year for superstars to adjust to NY. I expect 40+ homers and plenty of RBIs and SBs to make him a top choice again.
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Postby Guinness13 » Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:31 pm

I take VLAD ;-D
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