Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm working on Beltran's projections right now, and I'm in this area with my stats, Cornbread. I have him at .310, 33 HR, 120 R, 95 RBI's, 40 SB."
310-120-95-33-40?! You're falling for the hype, dude. He's never hit 310 before. Ever. Nor has he ever hit more than 29 HRs before 2004. Yeah, he hit 38 last year but his BA collapsed to 267. 258 in Houston. Nor has he ever scored 120 runs. Not ever. Plus, he's only stole 40 bases or more twice in his career.
I thought I had heard the last of "Beltran never did that before so why now?" in 2003 when many said he couldn't hit 30 HR.
I do think that a .310 BA is abit of a reach, I have him pegged at .285. The rest of the numbers are not at all out of realm of possibility for Beltran. Runs can be a crapshoot, but he had over 120 last season and was constantly around 110 in the previous 3 seasons. Him posting another 120 is definitely doable. Again it is slightly higher than 115 I have him pegged at but not a major reach.
He has posted back to back 40 SB seasons so saying that his history doesn't support another 40 SB season doesn't really make much sense. If you want to base his SB numbers falling based on his new contract or a different team philosophy then you might have something.
HRs are probably the most difficult of his numbers to figure because of the move to the less friendly park. A great deal of his damage last year came away from the HR friendly Minute Maid (he only hit 7 of his 23 NL HR there) and his HR rate has increased steadily over the past 4 seasons. I think the move to Shea will stop him from ever making the 40-40 club, but 33 is a very reasonable projection.
Of course I would still give Vlad the nod, but only because I think last season was a warm-up for the numbers he will post in 2005.
Skippyoz wrote:Beltran is also leaving a lineup where Kent, Berkman, Biggio, and Bagwell had his back. Even Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, Jose Vizcaino all had over 300 AB and hit over .270. Hopefully Wright matures. But Kaz (.272), Piazza (38 Year Old Catcher, .266 AVG), Floyd (.260 when he played (missed over 45 games), Reyes (often injured, hit .255), and Cameron if he's here (.231 AVG). That is not a lot of protection. Plus, Beltran is paid to be THE MAN now. That is an extreme amount of pressure.
He played half of his games for one of the worst offenses in baseball. And he still did okay i would say.
Skippyoz wrote:He played half of his games for one of the worst offenses in baseball. And he still did okay i would say.
Yes, and now he is going back to one of the worst offenses (just a different one) in baseball. In KC he had the likes of Sweeney, Ibanez, Randa, Berroa, Harvey. Its almost like the same kind of team here in NYM: Wright, aging Piazza, Floyd, Cameron, Kaz, Reyes. Hopefully we get Delgado and that enhances the lineup drastically.
So, back to the original thread, why would anyone want to take him over Vlad?
Actually, Beltran could hit .310 this year. He is getting better every year and he should not have hit .267 in 04. That was just plain bad luck.
Vlad and Beltran are very close in terms of value right now. They are only 1 year apart in age and while Vlad has been much more consistent, I can see Beltran taking over. The ONLY reason why I think Vlad will outearn Beltran is because I don't think Beltran will run as much in NY.
I still think Vlad is slightly better but I may change my mind before the season starts.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Vlad. Beltrans at a age, where power spikes can happen though.
Shea will negate it some. Beltran needs to step up his road average, or hit very high in Shea.
02 333 Kaufman 283 road
03 342 Kaufman 274 road
Kaufman helped his average alot. I could be off, but i expect 25-30 sb. With 119 mil invested, you don't want him running crazy. Runs/rbis are a guess, as team dependent. Vlad was $3 higher last year. If Beltrans sb drop, it could be more.
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Yoda wrote:Guerrero is a better player for fantasy. Not that far apart but Vlad is better.
The thing about Beltran is will he run? If the Mutts get Delgado, which at the moment seems highly likely, the lineup would be (provided everyone is healthy): Reyes, Matsui, Beltran, Delgado, Piazza, Wright... It is hard for me to imagine that Beltran will be doing a lot of running. He just signed a huge contract, moving into a pitcher friendly park and playing under the pressure in NY. He will also be hitting 3rd with ample protection behind him. However, I assume Randolph is a small ball type manager who may give him the green light and Beltran is an extermely efficient base stealer.
But the SBs are expected to come down and he is more of a risk than Vlad. Still a top 10 player but not better than Vlad.
One of the reasons why Beltran is so valuable is because he is so good at stealing alot of bases. I dont see why they would suddenly stop one of his strong points. I still think Vlad is better though.
In one of Omar Minaya's (Mets GM) conferences, he mentioned 3 things that make Beltran what he is: power, speed, and defence. I don't think he's going to take the speed factor out of Beltran's repertoire.
I'm not sure who I'd pick ahead of who, but right now I'd be thinking Beltran because 40-40 possibility is sweet, plus he scores a lot and drives in runs. Whereas Vlad is a hitting machine, but maybe he doesn't outhit Beltran enough to beat the extra steals of Carlos.
I'd like to know which player you guys would take just in case I get an early pick.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]