IMO Vlad has the edge on Beltran, I see Beltrans power numbers going down now that hes not playing a lot of his games in that t-ball field they call minute maid park. His stolen bases are unquestionably the best argument of why to take him over Vlad, but if you are doing a H2H or FP league stolen bases won't be as much of a factor. Beltran to a roto player would obviously be more valuable, but in the end there's not that much of a difference, be happy with either
"I'm working on Beltran's projections right now, and I'm in this area with my stats, Cornbread. I have him at .310, 33 HR, 120 R, 95 RBI's, 40 SB."
310-120-95-33-40?! You're falling for the hype, dude. He's never hit 310 before. Ever. Nor has he ever hit more than 29 HRs before 2004. Yeah, he hit 38 last year but his BA collapsed to 267. 258 in Houston. Nor has he ever scored 120 runs. Not ever. Plus, he's only stole 40 bases or more twice in his career.
And now, he's gonna play half his games in a notorious pitcher's park, and you've got him having his best hitting year overall by far?! AND one of his best running years?! This defies all logic or common sense. At most, he'll post 280-105-95-30-35.
I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.
First of all, I am a Mets fan, which is why I am extremely happy with the Beltran signing. I think that he, along with the young combo of Wright-Reyes can bring some success to the Mets again. Maybe Piazza has one more “productive” year left, maybe Kaz “turns” it around, maybe Floyd plays more than 140 games, and maybe Cameron decides to stay and play some defense. Anyways, back to my point.
I don’t think Beltran will bat over .300 this year. First, Beltran himself. He is a .284 career hitter. Last year, with a hitters ballpark as his home stadium for 90 games he batted .258. He’s batted over .300 only twice in seven years (.306 and .307). I went onto mets.com and looked at the career batting average leaders in Mets history (I think I did that right) and exactly two players have averages, as a Met of course, of over .300 – John Olerud and Mike Piazza. Olerud did it once (close twice) in three years. In six full seasons, Piazza has done it three times, and did it one more time in 109 games after being traded from LA to FLA to NYM. Now, the three times he hit below .300 was his last three years, and he is clearly on the down side of his career. But, remember, he is probably considered, arguably, to be the best hitting Catcher of all time. In my mind, the numbers work against Beltran being at Shea. Anyone who has ever experience watching players come to NY… its not a hitters ball park, at all. Enough can't be said about that.
I don’t think Beltran will hit over 30 homeruns this year. Back to history… Strawberry is the career leader in HR for a Met as a Met… he’s never hit 40 HR in a season. Piazza did it once. HoJo came close, three times, but never made it. Dave Kingman is one of the only players, non-active, with over 400 career HR, and in six seasons, has never hit 40 as a Met (came close, but no cigar). Beltran is hitting his "prime" if you want to call it that, but I can't imagine him hitting too many HR in that park.
I do, however, believe that he will score over 100 Runs (closer to 110 if Wright has a solid year and closer to 120 if Delgado signs or if Piazza/Floyd squeeze out a good year), and I do think that he will knock in over 100 RBI (closer to 110 or even 120 if we see the Reyes-Kaz combo develop into the lethal combo that they should become).
Finally, I think he should get 20 to 30 steals. If he does in fact hit in the third spot, his “primary” job will be to drive in Reyes and Kaz, and stay on base for Piazza/Wright/Floyd/Delgado(?). With Reyes and Kaz taking the brunt of the running risks, he may not be called upon to run as much as he has in the past (I don’t think he’ll be going for 35+ steals). However, that all changes if he bats first or second (Kaz slumps or Reyes gets hurt). Then, he could go for 35 to 40 steals, and clearly has the ability to do so.
Want my prediction for Beltran? I would say 110 R, 30 HR, 110 RBI, 30 SB, .285 AVG. For Vlad, who I wish the Mets would have gotten a few years back? 110 R, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 10 SB, .330 AVG. So, overall, I would have to give my pick to Vlad.
About the steals i believe the Mets will still let him run. They paid alot of money for him and one thing that made him such an expensive player is his steals so I would think they would use it as often as they can. Also it isnt like he gets thrown out alot.
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:You guys probably shouldnt gloss over things like injuries, age, maturity and other intangibles as you quote past statistics solely as the basis for your theories - that leads to mistakes.
I couldnt agree more. You are looking at a guy who is consistently getting better every year, so why the hell are you quoting past statistics so heavily? He has shown gradual improvement throughout all of his key indicators over each season, so why should we simply put him down to his career .289 average or whatever it is? He is a much MUCH better hitter than .265. To say he won't do something this season because has he NEVER done it before is ridiculous. So by your theory, a player will NEVER improve.
I'm not glossing over things. People can lie with numbers and statistics very easily. But, living in Queens for 24 years, one thing that is for certain: Shea Stadium is where hitters come to die. I sure hope Beltran is the exception to this rule.
On a side note, look at Soriano. Last year he was expected to go 40/40 and didn't make it to 30/20. And, he went to a "hitter's" ballpark and had a lower average than the past two years.
A power and consistent player like Vlad who plays a less demanding position in a ballpark that is better for hitters probably has a better chance of repeating his numbers more than a speed player who has to cover a lot of ground next to Floyd and is moving to a new ballpark that is unfriendly to hitters in front of the biggest media center in the world.
Beltran is also leaving a lineup where Kent, Berkman, Biggio, and Bagwell had his back. Even Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, Jose Vizcaino all had over 300 AB and hit over .270. Hopefully Wright matures. But Kaz (.272), Piazza (38 Year Old Catcher, .266 AVG), Floyd (.260 when he played (missed over 45 games), Reyes (often injured, hit .255), and Cameron if he's here (.231 AVG). That is not a lot of protection. Plus, Beltran is paid to be THE MAN now. That is an extreme amount of pressure.
Hopefully, he breaks this trend, and I will be very happy.