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Calculating $$$ Values

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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby Matthias » Wed Feb 20, 2008 7:57 pm

rb11 wrote:
Matthias wrote:
rb11 wrote:ok just starting to do this. Do you have 1 list for 2b, 1 for ss and 1 for MI. I took the top players that didnt make the cut in my ss and 2b and put them in the MI list. Those players i didnt count as replacement players for ss and 2b since their drafted for MI. Is that right?

Correct.

wouldnt that overvalue MI since their category total would be much smaller since its the players that weren't good enough to be started as SS or 2B. They would be against basically the same replacement player as a SS but their category value would be lower causing them to be overvalued. Wouldnt it?

You would use, as replacement players:
For Shortstops: The top undrafted SS after you take out for the MI's
For Second Basemen: The top undrafted 2B after you take out the MI's
For MI's: The top undrafted SS or 2B (whichever is higher) after you take out the MI's

Note: If you use Utility players, you would also take them out for these purposes, if an otherwise undrafted SS is superior to undrafted players at other positions.

Make sense?
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby rb11 » Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:15 pm

[/quote]
You would use, as replacement players:
For Shortstops: The top undrafted SS after you take out for the MI's
For Second Basemen: The top undrafted 2B after you take out the MI's
For MI's: The top undrafted SS or 2B (whichever is higher) after you take out the MI's

Note: If you use Utility players, you would also take them out for these purposes, if an otherwise undrafted SS is superior to undrafted players at other positions.

Make sense?[/quote]

Thx for explaining that part. Do i though count players more than once in each list if they have more than one position. Or should I only put them in the position that is the most shallow and they are worth the most in. For example put figgins only in the 2nd base list. What about a guy like Berkman though
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby CheeseBeger » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:03 pm

Each player only once, otherwise your stat totals will be off ( this won't make a huge difference though). If you want to see how much the player is valued at a different position just type his numbers over some other similar player's numbers and see your value.
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:52 am

This is a great post, so I am bumping it up.
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby mdecav » Wed Dec 09, 2009 12:19 am

I would like revisit this post because I have some questions about the original post. The main question is how exactly do you apply weights to each category? There are a number of programs out there that now calculate numbers:

http://www.fantasybaseballhub.com/dollar_values.html

The problem is each algorithm is different. ESPN's Player Rater will also give you "points" and I can transfer to dollar values, and I've worked backwards to get their weights for each category, but I can't figure out how to calculate them on my own.

Here is how I calculate dollar values, a little different than the first post:

1. Define your player universe and their projected stats.
2. Calculate the averages of each category per player, as well as average AB and IP per player.
3a. (Counting Stats) Calculate category points of each player by 1) taking the player's projected stat minus the average of that stat from #2, and 2) multiply by its CATEGORY WEIGHT.
3b. (Average Stats, i.e. BA, WHIP, ERA) Calculate category points of each player by 1) taking the player's projected stat minus the average of that stat (for BA, the reverse for WHIP/ERA), 2) mutiply by the players projected AB/IP divided by the league average AB/IP, and then 3) mutiply by its CATEGORY WEIGHT.
4. Sum the category points per player to get total points per player.
5. Calculate the average dollar to be spent on a hitter and pitcher.
6. Separately for hitters and pitchers, sum up all the total points for all hitters and pitchers, and divide both numbers by the number of hitters and pitchers in your universe. The single hitter and pitcher whose total points comes close to the averages are "the mean" hitter and pitcher.
7. Figure out the best player who you think the league will take at the minimum bid (usually $1 for most leagues).
8. You now have two data points - two players whose total points equate to a dollar value in your league. Linearly interpolate all of the other player's dollar values based on their total points. All the players whose total points are lower than the player in #6 are worth $1, or whatever your minimum bid is.

The only problem here is how the CATEGORY WEIGHT is actually calculated. I've reverse engineered ESPN's Player Raters numbers, but I don't know how they come up with it. Any suggestions? This is important because the weights you apply to saves is important, and I'm trying to figure out the true value of closers in, say, a 5x5 league.
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby mblax10 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:23 pm

One major problem with your steps is you never account for position. Comparing stats vs a league avg player is fine. But than you need to adjust for replacement level at a player's specific position.

Instead of category weights, I calculate a point value to every stat. Than calculate the monetary value of 1 point in the standings.

For the example, let's take a 12 team league. The prior year HR standings went:
1st=255
2nd=243
3rd=241
4th=224
5th=218
6th=214
7th=211
8th=204
9th=192
10th=187
11th=186
12th=168

1.Take the final standings from your league the prior year.
2.Calculate the difference in the standings at every interval (i.e. interval 1=255-243, int. 2=243-241, etc).
3.Take out the max and min interval to minimize outliers. In this population it leaves you with intervals of 12, 2, 17, 6, 4, 3, 7, 12 & 5. 18 & 1 are the omitted intervals.
4.Avg the remaining population. 7.56. This is how many HR=1 point.
So if you're league avg. player (I calculate this different than you do) hits 18 HR, Pujols 47 HR were worth 3.84 pts in the standings ((47-18)/7.56)

How many $ is each point worth?
1. Calculate total $ your league will spend (Generally # of Teams X Salary Cap, but this could vary in some leagues.). We'll say 12 teams @ $300=$3,600.
2. Subtract # of league roster spots X minimum player salary. $3,600 -(12 teams, 25 players, $2 min bid)=$3,000. This is the incremental dollars available for auctioned players.
3. Calculate the total incremental points for your league. 66 points per category Everybody's guaranteed 1 point, so (11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1+0) X 14 categories = 924 available points
4. Divide available dollars by available points (3000/924)=$3.25 per point

So in this example, Pujols HR's alone are worth $12.46 (3.84 X 3.25). Do the same for every category in your league and add dollar amounts for a player's total dollar value.
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby mdecav » Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:58 pm

So what do you do for the averages (BA, WHIP, ERA)?

BTW - You can just take the high and low in each category, divide by n-1 teams in your league to get (almost) the same number.
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:27 pm

mdecav wrote:So what do you do for the averages (BA, WHIP, ERA)?

BTW - You can just take the high and low in each category, divide by n-1 teams in your league to get (almost) the same number.



I'm curious as well. I assume you need to make the individual calculations with hits, at bats, etc.
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby mblax10 » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:33 pm

mdecav wrote:So what do you do for the averages (BA, WHIP, ERA)?

BTW - You can just take the high and low in each category, divide by n-1 teams in your league to get (almost) the same number.


This is not true. The point of looking at each outlier and THAN removing the max and min is to eliminate gaps in data. This can be quite common if a 14 team league has 3 teams that punt saves. When you're valuing a closer, you don't know if he'll end up on one of the top 11 teams or the bottom 3. Eliminating the interval between team 11 & 12 is useful.

To calculate for rate stats you need to figure how much playing time the player will get relative to an avg team. Go through the same process with the rating. Let's say you end up with a replacement BA of .273, and 1 point=.0012 BA.

Now find the number of AB a replacement team would have. (I go through a more complex calculation, but taking the team with the lowest AB last year will work). Let's say this #=4912

Now let's take Albert Pujols and a projection of 579 AB and a .333 BA.

So your inputs are:
B=Replacement level BA=.273
b=value of 1 point of BA=.0012
T=Replacement Team AB's=4912

P=Pujols AB=579
A=Pujols BA=.333

The formula to calculate how many points Pujols BA is worth is:
((A-B)/b) * (P/T)

or ((.333-.273)/.0012) * (579/4912)=5.9
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Re: Calculating $$$ Values

Postby mdecav » Mon Jan 18, 2010 10:35 pm

The only problem there is that if you have a category that has two clusters of teams bunched together, your number (i.e. the category's "variance") will be less than it should be.
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