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Calculating $$$ Values

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Postby Wyatt » Sat Jan 29, 2005 11:47 am

Thanks Elijah A few more questions I've finished my first attempt but want to make sure I did it right. My league has 11 Hit starters, 6 pit startes & a bench of 5 . So in my baseball Universe I had a total of 192 hitters & 72 pitchers. Is this correct using C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, UT, 6XP & 5 BENCH? I included my 5 bench players all has hitters to figure my $ value.

After I subtracted out my replacement players stats from all of my Universe players stats, I totaled up each category R, HR, RBI, SB & AVG Value & divided that # into the $ values per Category that you provided. EX HR $499 / by total HR (for my 192 hitters this # was 2,483) gave me a coefficient of .20 All of my coefficients seemed low so I ended up just using yours. This is why I think maybe I did something wrong. Maybe we could email to discuss mailto:Bengland@multipro.com or we can just continue to post.

Thanks for your help
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Postby mtims69 » Sat Jan 29, 2005 1:03 pm

Remember though, if you're skipping the other steps and using those coefficiants, those are for the difference between the players projected stats and a replacement players, you can't just mutiply them by what you have projected.


Yes, I subtracted replacemnt numbers from projections first. Your original post was very helpful and it made me feel like I halfway knew something about Excel when I was plugging those formulas in the spreadsheet. thanks
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Postby Elijah » Sat Jan 29, 2005 1:51 pm

Glad it was helpful mtims. :)

Looks like you've got the process down right Wyatt, good job ;-D . I think what happened is that your replacement stats are too low. I think using all 5 of your bench slots on hitters is what did it. Just out of curiousity does your league have a IP max? Even though you're only allowed to hav 6 P starting, you'll probably need to rotate in some bench pitchers if you want to have a shot at W's or K's. By switching some of your bench slots to pitchers, your replacement hitters should have slightly better stats which should fix the problem. I think I wrote to someone else that if you're calculating your own replacement values, make sure to use an average of the last half dozen or so guys at a position, and not just the best guy left over.
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Postby Wyatt » Sat Jan 29, 2005 3:44 pm

ok will do it seems I read somewhere to make bench players hitters for whatever reason when I knew I 'd have at least 2 as pitchers. I just needed to know the basis for the cutoff on the replacement players. I'll redo my calculations & see whee they shake out.

Thanks
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Postby daweasle » Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:17 am

Elijah,
Wanted to say first of all thanks alot for posting all this.

1. Your projections are awesome - nice to see someone with enuf balls to air his laundry for the world to see.
2. Your explanations on how to do it - that's even better.(Give a man a fish - he'll eat for a day, teach him to fish, he'll beat you in fantasy baseball.)

I did want to mention a few spots i thought you had guys ranked really high or low - I'm not saying i'm right and you're wrong but a few guys really stood out to me as a little bit out of place.

Too Low?
I think dropping Magglio to $13 is pretty low. And Garret Anderson at $14. they are both quality outfielders and EVEN If their price is too high - you must realize on name value alone they will draw a lot higher price.
Preston Wilson at $3 is HUGELY undervalued. He should go for 12 or more.
I personnally think Luis Gonzales is worth more than $10 but that's ones probably not very far off.

I think Vidro is also hugely undervalued. You have him at $7. He has to be at least a top 6 2B, and similar players priced twice that(loretta boone and giles at $15,16,17) No Way does vidro deserve half price.

Too High?
Randy Winn @$15? I don't think he's even guaranteed to play the OF every day. he's listed on rototimes as a backup player. (It really stood out to me cause he was above magglio and garrett anderson)

D Wright at $15? he seems high too, maybe you can spend that much in a dynasty league - but for a redraft I'd have trouble spending more than 6 or 7. I guess you project him pretty high - but generally more rookies bust than make it (6 out of 22 make a real life fantasy impact)

Khalil greene at $3? This kid is the real deal. I'd bump him up a few bucks.....

Willy mo pena at $11>? thats more than you give for luis gonzales....(gonzales had 25+ HR and 100+ rbis five straight seasons(98-2003) with career avg of .288. Pena has never had over 350 ABs, and while he did have a good season last year that doesn't say much if he can carry that over to this year. His career BA is .241)

I did not pull these examples out to make your results look bad -
over all your results look great - it looks like you put a lot of time and effort into it and to find - 8 or 10 mistakes in 300+ players looks pretty good to me.

My main thing was to help you adjust hopefully, but more importantly to tell everyone that once you do your projections - make sure you go back and sanity check them.

Everyonce in a while when we get too much into the math and we forget about the reality of baseball.

Averages, stats, excel sheets, formulas and VORPs are all great but if you forget that preston wilson plays in coors field and is just once season removed from being a top 10 outfielder, (he had 5 straight seasons averaging 28 HR and 20 SB) 8-o if you forget to include that info - it's going to really throw your efforts off base a little.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:12 am

One quick clarification, Elijah. It's not clear to me how you calculated the values for a replacement player. It sounds as if you took ALL players at the position below the level you set as the player sample selected in the league. That is, it sounds as if you calculate replacement by finding the average of all the players excluded from the league. That's likely to give you an underestimate of the replacement player's value. You want to use the "marginal" value rather than the average value. In other words, what you really want is the value of the player at thetop of the replacement list. Since any one player might not be representative, you probably do want to average, but I would average of the top 5 or 10 players left out of the league, rather than the entire excluded player group.

If I'm wrong in understanding your explanation, mea culpa.
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Postby Ender » Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:27 am

Not a big fan of this system of replacement players at all. First off taking the average of all players left seems to be a poor choice, you just want the best player left. Secondly doing it by position is a mistake. A Catcher that steals 50 bases is not worth more than a Ss that does, this system puts a false positional value on players based on individual stats which do not matter.
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Postby BigLebowski » Sat Feb 11, 2006 3:20 am

Ender wrote:Not a big fan of this system of replacement players at all. First off taking the average of all players left seems to be a poor choice, you just want the best player left. Secondly doing it by position is a mistake. A Catcher that steals 50 bases is not worth more than a Ss that does, this system puts a false positional value on players based on individual stats which do not matter.


I beg to differ. Position does play into your valuations.

A ton of SS's steal bases so anything off the scrap heap can help you there. A Catcher who steals is rare...that is the increased value.

In the end, numbers count and it doesn't matter where they come from, but a catcher who steals 50 is impossible to replace. Just like Tejada hitting 40 HR...impossible to replace.

An OF who hits 25 HR...is no big deal, but if you can get a 2B who hits 25...you are way ahead of the game.

Position scarcity has to be taken into account on all your valuations.
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Postby Ender » Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:45 am

BigLebowski wrote:
Ender wrote:Not a big fan of this system of replacement players at all. First off taking the average of all players left seems to be a poor choice, you just want the best player left. Secondly doing it by position is a mistake. A Catcher that steals 50 bases is not worth more than a Ss that does, this system puts a false positional value on players based on individual stats which do not matter.


I beg to differ. Position does play into your valuations.

A ton of SS's steal bases so anything off the scrap heap can help you there. A Catcher who steals is rare...that is the increased value.

In the end, numbers count and it doesn't matter where they come from, but a catcher who steals 50 is impossible to replace. Just like Tejada hitting 40 HR...impossible to replace.

An OF who hits 25 HR...is no big deal, but if you can get a 2B who hits 25...you are way ahead of the game.

Position scarcity has to be taken into account on all your valuations.


I strongly disagree. A SS with 50 SB's is every bit has hard to replace as a C with 50 SB, you can't just pick up guys like that off the scrap heap. A HR from a 2B isn't any more valuable than a HR from an OF, I don't care how 'hard it is to replace'. Playing that way just makes your initial team weaker and is a losing strategy. I don't mind position scarcity its just breaking it down stat by stat I have an issue with.
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Postby Broncmet724 » Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:51 am

I think positional scarcity has to play a part in any set of projections to a point. Otherwise someone like Victor Martinez in no better stat wise than say the 100th baseball player out there. But you and I know that V-Mart will be long gone before 8th or 9th round in a draft.
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