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New form of DIPS

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 7:00 am
by LBJackal
OK well I was playing with a bunch of numbers today seeing if I could find multipliers for K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and Team IPAvg (ratio of balls in play that a pitcher's team allows for a hit). The concept was similar to DIPS but I'm making separate systems for SP's and RP's because I think that will be more accurate. The sample size to come up with the multipliers was all 1225 SP's who made at least 25 starts in a single season from 1990 to 2004.

I've only done SP's so far, so here they are, with their theoretical ERA followed by their actual ERA, and then the difference between the two. The chart includes all pitchers who had at least 25 GS in 2004. They're ranked by who got screwed the most (worst luck therefore their ERA should have been better). Now I know why DePodesta thought so highly of Derek Lowe - that geek must have been at his computer for hours ;-7

Image

The results I got were fairly similar to DIPS in some areas but since the method used was different, there will be differences between the two systems.

Any thoughts on this? And if anybody wants to know how I went about it... I can try to explain. And if anybody wants to point out a mistake then let me know, because I'm sure I made some :-D

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 8:34 am
by trevisc
you're a numbers nut. From the look of those stats i'm definitely staying away from Russ Ortiz this year.
;-D

thanks for the work.

Re: New form of DIPS

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:08 am
by reiser
LBJackal wrote: Any thoughts on this? And if anybody wants to know how I went about it... I can try to explain. And if anybody wants to point out a mistake then let me know, because I'm sure I made some :-D


I would probably weight K and BB higher than H+HR, based on Tom Tippett's research.
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

larry

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:16 am
by LBJackal
Yeah it's not perfect... G/F ratio plays a part too but Lahman doesn't have them... so I have to go by trends of how far above/below these "theoretical ERA's" each player traditionally is. Carlos Zambrano has been well below what he "should have had" as an ERA so I'll account for that... guys like Webb and Westbrook are extreme GB pitchers so they're below what they "should" have as an ERA. Once I've got the G/F ratio figured in... I should be ready to go with the projections.

Re: New form of DIPS

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:23 am
by LBJackal
reiser wrote:
LBJackal wrote: Any thoughts on this? And if anybody wants to know how I went about it... I can try to explain. And if anybody wants to point out a mistake then let me know, because I'm sure I made some :-D


I would probably weight K and BB higher than H+HR, based on Tom Tippett's research.
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

larry


I read that exact article before I did this little experiment actually. And I ran a regression to show the components of ERA and how much each played a role. I didn't look at how many hits a guy gave up at all though... just K, BB, HR, and the team's IPAvg. A walk hurt about as much as losing 2 K's. A HR could be offset by just over 8 K's. This is all in terms of "per nine innings" but that shouldn't matter.

And thanks for the advice. If I didn't already know about that link it would have been very handy :-D I still have to fix whatever is skewing the extreme GB pitchers though :-?

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:32 am
by ayebatter
NICE 8-o You either have

a/ way too much time on your hands
b/ a deep connectction to Deposeta
c/ Lowe is your cousin
d/ you just traded for Lowe in your keeper league
e/ are Deposeta
f/ are Lowe's wife or mother

I go by feelings myself ;-D

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:42 am
by Tavish
Since when were K's any different than normal outs LBJ? ;-7

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:44 am
by LBJackal
Tavish wrote:Since when were K's any different than normal outs LBJ? ;-7


There are exceptions... that's all I was saying before. Now I need to figure out how to filter out thsoe exceptions, ie: Webb.

And you're actually one of the guys I was hoping would read this... any suggestions on how to improve it?

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 10:13 am
by nikku88
Man, I can't believe Milton was even worse than it seems. 8-o

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:14 pm
by Budworth22
LbJackall, I do baseball handicapping as my job, I'd love to have someone help with the research. I use the Bill James/ Rob Neyer Pythag. for futures, and I use Ron Shandlers stuff to bet baseball underdogs, and only underdogs. People who don't believe in this stuff as predictors are not informed. They just can't be. At the very least, it's better than just eyeballing 3 year trends and saying I think he hit's X Homers, has an X.XX Era, etc.
Bud