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New form of DIPS

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Postby reiser » Fri Jan 14, 2005 4:11 pm

LBJackal wrote:I ran a bunch or correlations... nothing close to a significant correlation between K/BB and IPAvg. Am I missing something?

I realize that a player who is great at keeping his IPAvg low would skew the stats... but I don't know if any players exists that could skew the IPAvg enough to justify altering the team's IPAvg.


well, for one, we don't have the info on exactly how great the skew is between IPAvg vs. League IPAvg. i believe what the author is saying though is intuitive...either you introduce other picthers into the equation (Team) or you leave out Park and Defense (League).

"The correlation coefficients dropped to .36 for hit batsmen, .29 for homeruns, and .16 for in-play batting average relative to the league. The lowest correlation (.09) was seen for in-play batting average relative to the team."
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 14, 2005 4:22 pm

reiser wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I ran a bunch or correlations... nothing close to a significant correlation between K/BB and IPAvg. Am I missing something?

I realize that a player who is great at keeping his IPAvg low would skew the stats... but I don't know if any players exists that could skew the IPAvg enough to justify altering the team's IPAvg.


well, for one, we don't have the info on exactly how great the skew is between IPAvg vs. League IPAvg. i believe what the author is saying though is intuitive...either you introduce other picthers into the equation (Team) or you leave out Park and Defense (League).

"The correlation coefficients dropped to .36 for hit batsmen, .29 for homeruns, and .16 for in-play batting average relative to the league. The lowest correlation (.09) was seen for in-play batting average relative to the team."


.09 isn't a strong correlation at all, but it is still statistically significant - although barely. And even though it indicates a pitcher's skill at having a low IPAvg relative to his team, that doesn't mean that he lowers his team's IPAvg significantly. I don't believe trying to account for a skew woudl be any help at all.

And yes, you have to leave other pitchers in the equation if you want to evaluate Park and Defense's effect on IPAvg. I'm doing that; it's actually the key difference between DIPS and what I made up which is understandable because DIPS is looking for real life value; I'm looking for fantasy value.
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Postby reiser » Fri Jan 14, 2005 5:15 pm

LBJackal wrote: And yes, you have to leave other pitchers in the equation if you want to evaluate Park and Defense's effect on IPAvg. I'm doing that; it's actually the key difference between DIPS and what I made up which is understandable because DIPS is looking for real life value; I'm looking for fantasy value.


i don't see how though-we aren't drafting pitchers based on their value compared to their teammates-we are look for value, or upside, compared to the league. I guess Team IPAvg is the only way to include at least park effects huh?

and yes, .09 is significant :)
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 14, 2005 5:25 pm

reiser wrote:
LBJackal wrote: And yes, you have to leave other pitchers in the equation if you want to evaluate Park and Defense's effect on IPAvg. I'm doing that; it's actually the key difference between DIPS and what I made up which is understandable because DIPS is looking for real life value; I'm looking for fantasy value.


i don't see how though-we aren't drafting pitchers based on their value compared to their teammates-we are look for value, or upside, compared to the league. I guess Team IPAvg is the only way to include at least park effects huh?


This doesn't mean we're drafting based on how well a pitcher's teammates are. IPAvg doesn't derive from how good a pitching staff is (or at least not enough to justify consideration). It mostly derives from how good the defense is, and how conducive to a low IPAvg the stadium is.

So yeah, Team IPAvg takes the ballpark and defense into account. League IPAvg doesn't. In real life you want to know how good a pitcher would be independant of his park and defense, hence the DI in DIPS. In fantasy, you don't care how much his defense or park help him as long as he puts up the numbers. I guess my theory ERA should be called DDPS - since it's dependant on the defense :-D

Now all I need is HOOTIE to find this thread and show me everywhere that I went wrong !+)
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 14, 2005 5:31 pm

what you really need is to go outside and play catch. :-)

just messin - I have learned a lot more than I ever wanted to on this subject today. ;-D
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 14, 2005 6:22 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:what you really need is to go outside and play catch. :-)


I already thought of that. It's way too cold out though :-D
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Postby reiser » Fri Jan 14, 2005 7:08 pm

LBJackal wrote: So yeah, Team IPAvg takes the ballpark and defense into account. League IPAvg doesn't. In real life you want to know how good a pitcher would be independant of his park and defense, hence the DI in DIPS. In fantasy, you don't care how much his defense or park help him as long as he puts up the numbers. I guess my theory ERA should be called DDPS - since it's dependant on the defense :-D


wacky :)

but then, what are you using to evaluate a teams defense? BABIP?
hmmm.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 14, 2005 9:22 pm

reiser wrote:
LBJackal wrote: So yeah, Team IPAvg takes the ballpark and defense into account. League IPAvg doesn't. In real life you want to know how good a pitcher would be independant of his park and defense, hence the DI in DIPS. In fantasy, you don't care how much his defense or park help him as long as he puts up the numbers. I guess my theory ERA should be called DDPS - since it's dependant on the defense :-D


wacky :)

but then, what are you using to evaluate a teams defense? BABIP?
hmmm.
larry


Larry? I figured your name was Paul.

Anyway, maybe your IPAvg relative to your opponents' IPAvg's (ie: you faced Oakland 11 times in a season, with 420 total balls in play, with 120 of them going for hits other than HR's so you'd add 420, 120, plus the HBP, BB, and SO to the season's tally for each category), and the aggregate IPAvg might give the gist of your team's defense. That way it's somewhat independant of the park. But then again, BABIP is easily controllable, so if you face teams that have a high hit rate it might make your defense seem worse than it actually is. So you'd have to adjust the IPAvg ranking of your defense by looking at each offense's annual BABIP - weighted of course to reflect a proportionate amount of BFP.

OK my brain hurts. I don't know if I'm even accomplioshing anything here, seems more like rambling to me. If anybody understood what I was trying to say they should get a prize or something :*)
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Postby reiser » Sun Jan 16, 2005 11:15 am

LBJackal wrote:Larry? I figured your name was Paul.

OK my brain hurts. I don't know if I'm even accomplioshing anything here, seems more like rambling to me. If anybody understood what I was trying to say they should get a prize or something :*)


lol, no. Pete Reiser was one of the players profiled in "Baseball When The Grass Was Green", which is still one of my fave baseball books.

anyhow, i found a spreadsheet that may help-do you have an e-mail?
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Jan 16, 2005 5:50 pm

Yep, I PM'd it to you. I think I have it in my profile too, but I'm not sure.
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