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Cards flying low?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:22 am

Wondering what everyone thinks about this article

I disagree that they are a worse team than last year. The offense should be just as good if not better if Walker stays healthy. The pitching is better with Mulder. The only place I see the team being worse is the defense.

Taking it number by number
1. Duh. Renteria is better than Eckstein? You don't say.
2. Mulder vs. Woody/Haren/Calero. Mulder is stud. I really like Woody but he couldn't stay healthy and isn't getting any younger. Haren was going to be the #5. Calero was great is relief last year but I'll gladly sacrafice his 40+ innings for a #1 starter?
3. Matheny vs. Molina. Matheny is a defensive great but he is also 34 and I can hit better. Molina is a young/cheap catcher with a better bat and good defense.
4. Kline vs. Myers. Kline is better no doubt but as the author notes we also have Ankiel.
5. Morris and Carp's health. Always an issue. It was an issue last year.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:23 am

I'd also like to note
Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Jan 12, 2005 12:11 pm

I usually discount most of what I read from ESPN's "experts", especially the ones from Chicago writing about the Cards. ;-7
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Wed Jan 12, 2005 3:05 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:I'd also like to note
Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune


i would also like to note that Phil Rogers is a no talent ass clown. i live in chicago so i see his crap quite frequently. while i agree that the cards will have a tough time topping 105 wins, its not necessarily because they will be a worse team. winning 105 takes a little bit of luck in addition to the skill and hard work. i think we could win 95 in 2005 and end up being every bit as good or better than the 2004 team.

1) sure, i would rather have edgar than eck but i think he overstates the difference. somewhat pointless to compare their offensive stats because one is a leadoff hitter and the other a #6 hitter but he does so anyway. why bring up the intentional walks? how often does a team decide to intentionally walk the leadoff hitter? seems pretty logical that a solid #6 hitter would get free pass when batting in front of a poor #7 hitter more often than a team deciding it wise to walk the leadoff hitter. would be more apt to compare the hitting abilities of grudz and edgar since grudz will probably be batting closer to edgar's old spot. while grudz cant do what edgar did in 2003, he can match what edgar did in 2004. i am confident eck can match what womack did in 2004. so basically the middle infield shouldnt be too different from last year.

2) sure i would have loved to send marquis instead of haren (and i think haren could have been a solid starter), but for the purposes of comparing 2004 to 2005 we gave up and aging and sometimes injured williams and two solid bullpen arms for a left hander that started the all-star game for the AL.

3) "Big-league pitchers aren't fond of catchers receiving on-the-job training." --while that is generally true, it is not applicable in this case. the cards pitchers rave about how well yadi did last year. matheny might be better defensively but not so much as to lose sleep over. plus yadi hits better and costs less.

4) we still have burger king as a number one lefty. its nice to have two really good ones but not necessary. myers is only going to pitch to lefties which he is fairly good at (.233 baa last year). ankiel could be in the bullpen in which case we would be fine. cali should just be a phone call away. bottom line is that going from a good second lefty to just a solid second lefty isnt going to kill you.

5) while i am somewhat concerned about starting pitcher health, that is something that every team has to face.

so basically his points are either more debatable than he seems to think they are or just plain wrong. perhaps he should have written an article about how the cubs have done little to address their problems.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Jan 12, 2005 3:43 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:so basically his points are either more debatable than he seems to think they are or just plain wrong. perhaps he should have written an article about how the cubs have done little to address their problems.


Great stuff as usual jd, but I agree with that most of all. ;-D
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Jan 13, 2005 4:33 pm

if you didnt already see it, here is an article that raises some of the same points but isnt nearly as pessimistic:

After Series debacle, Cards are rebuilding nicely


By Murray Chass
New York Times Baseball Columnist
01/10/2005
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Just before last month's winter meetings, Walt Jocketty received a telephone call from one of his players.

"I know we need a pitcher or two," Jocketty, the Cardinals' general manager, said Larry Walker had told him. "I'm willing to defer money. I'll call some other guys if you'd like."

Jocketty said he thanked Walker for the offer but told him a contract revision was not necessary. The Cardinals might have been swept in four games by Boston in the World Series and they might have lost some players to free agency, but their future wasn't gloomy.

Indeed, less than two weeks after Walker called, Jocketty bolstered the Cardinals' starting rotation by acquiring Mark Mulder from Oakland. And just to make sure Mulder and the other pitchers have someone behind`them to catch the ball, Jocketty signed David Eckstein and Mark Grudzielanek as free agents.

"We're retooling," Jocketty said.

Good teams are supposed to be strong up the middle, but the Cardinals lost their catcher, Mike Matheny; their shortstop, Edgar Renteria; and their second baseman, Tony Womack. "We still have a Gold Glove center fielder," Jocketty said, referring to Jim Edmonds. "We have a young catcher we're excited about offensively and defensively. He comes from that great blood line of the Molina family."

He was talking about Yadier Molina, who at 22 is the youngest of the major leagues' three catching Molina brothers. Bengie and Jose play for Anaheim. Matheny led all position players with a .999 fielding percentage, committing only one error and allowing two passed balls, and a team can't help but miss a player of his caliber.

But because the Cardinals felt that Molina was ready to be an everyday starter, they weren't prepared to give Matheny the three-year, $10.5 million contract he received from San Francisco. Molina started 39 games last season and caught in 51. He committed two errors and had four passed balls, but offensively, he had a better batting average and better on-base and slugging percentages than Matheny.

The Cardinals' middle infielders went to different teams in the American League East. Womack signed a two-year, $4 million contract with the Yankees, and Renteria became Boston's shortstop with a four-year, $40 million contract. Their departures were unusual because the Cardinals had had a recent history of retaining players who could leave as free agents.

When Mark McGwire arrived in St. Louis via a trade in 1997, he figured to leave as a free agent after the season, but he enjoyed his half-season stay so much he signed a new contract with the Cardinals. Edmonds did the same thing after he was traded to St. Louis in 2000.

Jocketty thought Renteria would follow the same pattern.

"I know he was very comfortable here," Jocketty said. But Renteria chose money.

"We went further than we thought we would with him, but he took more money with Boston," Jocketty said. "In the end, between our last offer and what he signed for, there was a difference of $4 million or $5 million."

Womack also surprised him, Jocketty said. "We were going to offer him salary arbitration with the idea we were going to continue negotiating with him," he said. "Then the Yankees came at him hard and fast and needed a decision that night. We were working on several other things."

Three days after Renteria signed with Boston, the Angels signed another free-agent shortstop, Orlando Cabrera, and did not tender a contract to Eckstein, making him a free agent. Three days later, the Cardinals signed him to a three-year, $10.25 million contract.

The Cardinals took a little longer before choosing Grudzielanek as their second baseman from a group that also included Alex Cora, Miguel Cairo and Roberto Alomar.

"It's the last spot we have to fill, and we don't have a lot of money to spend," Jocketty said a day before signing Grudzielanek to a one-year, $1 million contract.

The core of the Cardinals remains intact. Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Walker and Edmonds make up that core. Mulder joins Chris Carpenter, Matt Morris, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis as starting pitchers.

"With Mulder, we're excited about our rotation," Jocketty said.

Rick Ankiel, who lost his control in 2000, then had elbow problems in 2002 and 2003, is the wild card of the pitching staff. "Ankiel looks like he's back on track," Jocketty said. "He pitched really well in winter ball. Molina was his catcher and commented on how well he pitched."

The Cardinals plan to use Ankiel as a relief pitcher but may need him to begin the season as a starter.

"Morris had surgery on his shoulder; they cleaned up some things, nothing serious," Jocketty said. "He may be a few weeks behind, and we may use Ankiel as a starter in that situation."

Jocketty said the Cardinals were over their World Series disappointment. "We were happy to be in it," he said. "We used so much energy to win the league championship series. It was such a dramatic series for us; we got to the World Series, and that first game was pivotal for us. If we had won that game, it could have changed the whole series."

But after rallying from a 7-2 deficit and tying the score at 7-7 and 9-9, the Cardinals lost, 11-9. They offered the Red Sox no challenge in the next three games.


http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports ... ing+nicely
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Postby Pujols100M » Tue Jan 25, 2005 5:41 pm

the Cards will be fine. Maybe not 100+ wins, but they'll be ok. It doesn't hurt that the rest of the division stayed even or worse, but the Cards are definatley solid.
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