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Beltran's Projections on the Mets??

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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:34 pm

"You guys are overreacting here - Beltran has hit over .300 twice in the last 5 yrs. The last two yrs he struggled through a couple niggling injuries. He'll be 28 this yr - basically if not at the average peak, real close to it. Contrary to what you believe, Houston did not help his fantasy numbers - a .258 avg was the worst of his career."

Beltran's lifetime stats in Shea are .176 in 6 games and 17 at-bats. Granted, that's not enough at-bats to draw any conclusions, but that's gotta give some pause.

Yes, Beltran has hit 300 twice before. But what were his HR totals those two years? They were 26 and 24. That's a far cry from the 38 he posted last year and the potential for 40-40 seasons I've been hearing so much about. In addition, check his home and away BA while at KC. It's MUCH better at home (333/283 in 2003, 288/257 in 2002, and 342/274 in 2001). He obviously received a huge benefit from playing in KC, so I'm not sure his earlier 300 seasons in KC have much relevance now that he's not playing there anymore.

As I said above, I agree he can hit 300. My point was that I'm skeptical he can do so and still hit 35+ HR. Certainly, he has never done so before and is unlikely to do so at Shea. Funny that Met fans were drooling over Pedro in part because Shea is such a good pitchers park, but now that Beltran is coming the park is suddenly good or at least neutral for hitters.
Last edited by Secret Avatar on Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:37 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:Beltran's lifetime stats in Shea are .176 in 6 games and 17 at-bats. granted, that's not enough at-bats to draw any conclusions, but that's gotta give some pause.

6 games? :-? You're joking right? Not that it matters but he also had 8 BBs. ;-)
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:46 pm

"6 games? You're joking right? Not that it matters but he also had 8 BBs."

Like I said, 17 at-bats isn't enough to make any conclusions. But I have no doubt that, if he had hit 330 in those same 17 at-bats, Met fans would have thrown that number in my face as evidence that he'll do well in Shea.

I noticed that you didn't respond to any of my other points.

Like I also said, Met fans were drooling over Pedro in Shea in part because of what a great pitchers park it was. Now that Beltran is coming to town, though, Shea is suddenly a good hitters park. I guess they plan to move the fences in 20 feet every time Beltran steps up to the plate, and drop the pitcher's mound a foot. Or maybe they'll just give him 4 strikes. An aluminum bat? ;-)

This is exactly the same debate I had last year with Yankee fans over A-Rod. I said it was likely his hitting stats would take a hit because Yankee stadium is tough on RH hitters.

The fact of the matter is, and no amount of argument can change it, that both Shea and Yankee stadium are good pitchers parks. Yankee stadium didn't do any favors for ARod and Shea is unlikely to do any favors for Beltran.
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:53 pm

I didn't respond to every point you made because I'm just not going to do that. You're entitled to your opinion and I don't disagree with some of what you are saying. But with that said, a 6-game sample is absolutely worthless and cheapens any argument you make.

Part of the reason I am excited about Pedro in Shea (aside from the fact that he gets to pitch to pitchers) is that Shea limits HRs and that was Pedro's primary problem last year. That factor will absolutely affect Beltran. If you look at my previous posts you'll see that I agreed with the (rather obvious) point that Beltran would have hit more HRs in MM than he will in Shea.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:12 pm

"But with that said, a 6-game sample is absolutely worthless and cheapens any argument you make."

I don't disagree that a 6-game sample is not worth much if anything. But it's not much fewer than the games Beltran played in his great post-season I've heard so much about as justifying why he's worth so much $.

Interestingly enough, his home/away splits in Houston were the exact opposite of those in KC. He hit 305 away and only 225 at home. I'm not sure what to make of that. Also, in his years in KC, his away BA was much worse than at home, but his HR totals were generally better away. Again, I'm not sure what to make of that. It's not surprising that BA goes down when HRs go up, but I doubt he was always swinging for power on the road and for BA at home. Any ideas?

In any event, my point in starting this thread was NOT to be anti-Met or start a war. As I said earlier, I'm neither a Met fan nor a Met hater, and I actually like Willie and hope he does well as the new manager. I also gave credit to the Met organization in going after their man and landing him against what seemed like tough odds. Certainly, the Mets wanted to make a big splash in this offseason and they did. And I've always said that the Mets have a promising young team that, if they can get their act together, can be real contenders in 2005 and beyond. Time will tell as always . . .
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:23 pm

Amazinz wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:Met fans may love Beltran now, but NY is a tough place. He'll get a week or two to start producing, and if not he'll be Boo-tran. ;-)

I remember some years back when the Mets traded for Piazza and everyone was saying how NY would eat him alive. ;-)


Well I don't think anybody in LA accused him of being a fag :-D
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:25 pm

Well Piazza handled that pretty well. I would have flipped out and went postal... }:-)
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Postby NZF » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:58 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:You guys are overreacting here - Beltran has hit over .300 twice in the last 5 yrs.


Maybe, but he has hit under .274 three of the past 5 years as well ;-)
The Houston excuse is valid but he was only hitting .278 in Kansas before he moved.

Just too big a risk with that BA for me to justify the No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy tag he's somehow got.

I will say this though for the guys out there that follow trends.

1998 BA .276
1999 BA .293
2000 BA .247
2001 BA .306
2002 BA .273
2003 BA .307
2004 BA .266

CM, maybe you're onto something after all :-?
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:04 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:Both CM and Rirruto, I have the utmost respect for both of your opinions, I just can't understand the logic behind a career .284 hitter, going into somewhat of a pitchers park and suddenly becoming a plus .300 hitter pretty easily.

Again using Mike Cameron as a comparison, he moves to Shea and his Avg and OBP drop significantly, but both his OPS and SLG increase well above his career norm.


Shea is a hitter's park in terms of BA, as opposed to Minute Maid which is a pitcher's park for BA. Sure HR's will be limited there, but if he focuses on contact and not power, he should have a great year. I don't know about his SB's... will the Mets let him run as much as he did in KC and Houston? More? Less? Seems to me it'd be less. That's the key to his fantasy value.
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