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Beltran's Projections on the Mets??

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Postby NZF » Sun Jan 09, 2005 2:49 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Beltran is a 5 category player.


So's Mike Cameron.
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Postby Rirruto » Sun Jan 09, 2005 2:56 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Beltran is a 5 category player.


So's Mike Cameron.


If a couple of those categories are lousy batting average and strike outs
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Postby Viper8437 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:04 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:"thanks for opening the thread to let the mets haters in"

I'm not a Mets hater. I'm definately not a fan, but I do like Willie and hope he can be successful as the new manager. Besides, this thread also opens up an opportunity for all Mets lovers to predict a 300-125-110-40-40 season for Beltran. ;-)

Met fans may love Beltran now, but NY is a tough place. He'll get a week or two to start producing, and if not he'll be Boo-tran. ;-)


i never called you a hater
i just said that you started the thread :-D
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Postby NZF » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:07 pm

Yeah it was the lousy BA one that influenced the Cameron / Beltran comparison.

Despite what many believe, Beltran proved last season he is not a 5 category player.
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Postby Rirruto » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:12 pm

It was only one season. He still has a career BA of .284 and it isnt impossible at all to hit .300 at Shea. There was one point on the '99 team when we had like 7-9 guys with a .300 average late in the season. If Beltran just drives it into the gaps he'll be fine.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:16 pm

I think his value increases.

Beltran wasnt a top 5 player last yr because of his average. Most Beltran neysayers will tell you that - and why is it they say? Because he tried to hit for power rather than avg. Well, now he's in a situation that will require a greater OBP and playing for an offense built to make runs rather than hit hrs like the type of offense he was on in HOU. That means a higher BA (much higher - I can see +.300 pretty easily), fewer HRs, and basically neutral to slightly positive SB projection. The batting avg dilemma solved, Beltran will challenge Pooholes for fantasy MVP.
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Postby NZF » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:22 pm

Yeah I realise that, but it was no coincidence that his HR numbers took off at the expense of his BA. A pretty common occurrence.

I know using Mike Cameron as a comparison does not do Beltran justice, it does suprise me though that he is still being touted No. 1 or No. 2 in drafts with the likelihood his BA stays around the .280 mark at best.
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Postby NZF » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:56 pm

Both CM and Rirruto, I have the utmost respect for both of your opinions, I just can't understand the logic behind a career .284 hitter, going into somewhat of a pitchers park and suddenly becoming a plus .300 hitter pretty easily.

Again using Mike Cameron as a comparison, he moves to Shea and his Avg and OBP drop significantly, but both his OPS and SLG increase well above his career norm.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Jan 09, 2005 4:37 pm

"That means a higher BA (much higher - I can see +.300 pretty easily), fewer HRs, and basically neutral to slightly positive SB projection. The batting avg dilemma solved, Beltran will challenge Pooholes for fantasy MVP."

Wow. I think there's more likelihood that Beltran sprouts alien tentacles than hits 300+ in Shea, unless of course he's willing to hit for BA only and settle for 20 HR and 70 RBI. Not likely. Again, I'm having a hard time seeing anything more than 280-95-90-35-35 for him. In fact, even 280 with 35 HR would be better than he posted last year (267-38) in a more favorable hitters park.

I don't have Beltran or Pujols on my fantasy team, and I'm not a Met fan nor a Met hater, but if I had Pujols I wouldn't give a second's worth of thought that Beltran on the Mets might dethrone his MVP status, and if I had Beltran I'd be concerned that his fantasy value just took a hit.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Jan 09, 2005 5:48 pm

You guys are overreacting here - Beltran has hit over .300 twice in the last 5 yrs. The last two yrs he struggled through a couple niggling injuries. He'll be 28 this yr - basically if not at the average peak, real close to it. Contrary to what you believe, Houston did not help his fantasy numbers - a .258 avg was the worst of his career. I simply see this situation - like I mentioned in my last post - is a situation where he is forced to play small ball and excell at those numbers that true value fantasy players drool over. He is a gap hitter now playing in a park condusive to his strengths, on a lineup built for speed, and you dont think thats a step up from Houston?
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