Difference between pts above average for all and for 1 pos? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Difference between pts above average for all and for 1 pos?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Difference between pts above average for all and for 1 pos?

Postby Music2004Man » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:06 pm

There was a thread on here over the last couple days discussing position scarcity. One thing that was discussed was looking at how far over the average for a single position the player is that you are drafting. What is the difference between looking at how that player performs vs. other players at his position and overall against everyone? In other words, regardless of position how does he look statistically against the rest of the league? I hope this is clear. If not, please let me know.
Music2004Man
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1092
Joined: 22 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby xeifrank » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:10 pm

In fantasy baseball, you draft by position... so position scarcity or comparing the value of a player to other players who play the same position is a good way of determining fantasy value.

If you compare a players value with players at all positions, then you haven't accounted for position scarcity.

vr

Xei
Author of: 2013 Mock Draft Software
Author of: Dodger Sims
Author of: The Sober Angels
Author of: Xei On Sports
xeifrank
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 959
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 24 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: SoCal

Postby Music2004Man » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:15 pm

I agree with you entirely I just think that it would be better to see how they compare against everyone else. As you list them on your list you could put the position next to them and then if you wanted to you could even organize it by position. It seems that if you did that you could see how they perform against players from all positions as well as their own.
Music2004Man
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1092
Joined: 22 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Bloody Nipples » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:19 pm

This is what I did with my rankings. I used a standard deviation-based formula (taking the avg and stdev from the number of players I though would be drafted at each position) on each position to give me an index number for that position. Basically, an index of 4 told me that that player was 4 standard deviations above the average. The shallower positions had guys with large numbers at the top of the rankings, even though their stats were only average or below at the deeper positions. This simulated positions scarcity. When I combined all the positions, I had many OFs behind all the Cs, so I decided to do an overall index and average it with the positional one. This gave me some pretty good rankings which gave me two things:
1) Value by position scarcity, and
2) Value by stats.
Combined, they show a pretty good list of how I should value players.
Image
aka enderwiggin
Bloody Nipples
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 3745
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: doing my laundry...

Postby xeifrank » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:43 pm

Music2004Man wrote:I agree with you entirely I just think that it would be better to see how they compare against everyone else. As you list them on your list you could put the position next to them and then if you wanted to you could even organize it by position. It seems that if you did that you could see how they perform against players from all positions as well as their own.


You can make all the lists you want... but the one that counts in my books is value above the replacement level. You can make lists to sort without taking positions into account, you can make lists that sort by color of uniform :) but the one that helps you the most if the one earlier mentioned.

vr

Xei
Author of: 2013 Mock Draft Software
Author of: Dodger Sims
Author of: The Sober Angels
Author of: Xei On Sports
xeifrank
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 959
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 24 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: SoCal

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:21 pm

Obviously, you want to draft players who score points. The standard idea is that you need points to win. However, there is a slightly skewed way to look at FBB competition. Instead of looking at total points, you can argue that if you simply beat your opponent at each position, you can garner a victory that way, too. And that's where position-mean analysis comes in handy.

If you take that opinion, then guys who score drastically above the average for their position take on a new value. The theory is that you don't need a terribly high-scoring outfielder, for instance, because there are so many people who score very well in the outfield. In the course of a season, you might only miss out on 60 or 80 points with the 20th-ranked outfielder.

However, with catchers, shortstops, and second basemen, this is not so true. You can gain a massive advantage by having the top scoring player at those positions because even the 5th and 6th-best players will be over 100 points behind the leader. Your gaining points through lack of positional depth.

While the theory is sound on paper, practical application still tells you that you need real points to win, so you have to draft accordingly. I like to use position-mean analysis for the middle rounds of the draft. In early rounds, just take the best player that you need because you cannot win without points - a lot of them.
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Postby Music2004Man » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:09 pm

My league has seven keepers so should I start using the positional mean strategy pretty much right at the beginning of my draft?
Music2004Man
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1092
Joined: 22 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:21 pm

Music2004Man wrote:My league has seven keepers so should I start using the positional mean strategy pretty much right at the beginning of my draft?


Are you in a roto or points based league?
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Music2004Man » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:22 pm

Points
Music2004Man
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1092
Joined: 22 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:41 pm

Where and when you use the analysis is a personal prerogative. It's not like it's a flawless system. You have to be able to predict who will be the top scorers at each position, and then you have to make sure you draft as many of them as you can. It's no better, but it's no worse, than any other system, imo. Go with what you're comfortable with.
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Sep. 3
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Philadelphia at Atlanta
(12:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(1:45 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(3:10 pm)
Washington at LA Dodgers
(3:10 pm)
Seattle at Oakland
(3:35 pm)
Boston at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Detroit at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Cincinnati at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
NY Mets at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Toronto at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Milwaukee at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
LA Angels at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Texas at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Chi White Sox at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Arizona at San Diego
(10:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact