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Adam LaRoche

Postby wake » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:52 pm

I'm trying to figure out where to rank LaRoche for NL only. Are the Braves still planning on platooning him at first with Julio for the season now that he's had a full season in the majors? He had a good second half last year with limited AB (25/10/30/0/.302) but it was mainly against right-handed pitching. Any projections on ABs and numbers for next year?
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:15 am

He faced mostly righties but he was arguably better against lefties. That could be deceiving since he would have sat against lefties that they figured would give him trouble. But it's encouraging that he didn't have as much trouble with them as most left handed hitters who sit vs lefties.

However given his uncertain role, and lack of power or anything spectacular for a 1B, I'd stay away from him in mixed leagues. I don't know enough about the depth in NL only leagues to make a guess though, sorry.
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Postby wake » Fri Jan 07, 2005 1:43 am

I'm not sure that LaRoche would hit for low power next year. Throughout his career his homeruns have consistently increased at each level. He had .21 more HR per 10 AB in his 2nd year of A than his 1st, .32 more in his 2nd year of AA than his 1st, and .38 more in his second half last year than in his first half. Also, his HR per 10 AB were higher in each of his 1st years at a level than the 1st year of the level preceeding it. If his homerun numbers just stayed the same from the 2nd half of last season then, if he started all of next season, he would have between 30-35 HR. I don't think he would get 35 HR but 25-30 wouldn't be out of the question.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 07, 2005 1:52 am

And if you project his HR from the first half, he'd have 12 HR over a full season. I don't think just looking at a single half season means much. Overall his rookie year projects to about 24 HR in 600 AB's.

He did have pretty good patience in the minors which leads to power later on, but more than 20-25 would really surprise me. He also isn't assured a starting spot. But like I said, I don't know his value in a NL only league so I can't really make a judgement of where to rank him.
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Postby trevisc » Fri Jan 07, 2005 8:40 am

yes..he will split time with Julio and is not a good fantasy option unless you are in a NL only league.
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Postby wake » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:51 pm

I tend to agree with you both. I'll try to avoid him in NL only unless an official announcement is made about him getting the sole starting job.

On a side question, does anyone know the average between a rookies 2nd half stats and their 1st? It would seem that splits would be more important for a rookie than a veteran because a rookie has an adjustment period to things like major league pitching, performing in front of a large crowd, and the pressure of being in the spotlight/holding onto their job. Are their 2nd half stats more indicative of next years performance than a professional player of 3 years?
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:15 pm

wake wrote:I tend to agree with you both. I'll try to avoid him in NL only unless an official announcement is made about him getting the sole starting job.

On a side question, does anyone know the average between a rookies 2nd half stats and their 1st? It would seem that splits would be more important for a rookie than a veteran because a rookie has an adjustment period to things like major league pitching, performing in front of a large crowd, and the pressure of being in the spotlight/holding onto their job. Are their 2nd half stats more indicative of next years performance than a professional player of 3 years?


Well I'm sure the 2nd half splits would be moer indicative of future performance. I don't know for sure, but it seems very likely. And I didn't mean to sat that it was a fluke in the second half taht he did so well, or that his 1st half splits were more accurate, but I was more trying to look at the whole picture instead of being selective of what stats and time frames to look at.

LaRoche could have a great year and hit 30 HR's, I really don't know. But I'd say it isn't very likely. He didn't show a lot of power in AAA, but he showed enough XBH ability along with plate discipline that I can see 30 HR power in the future. Just not yet.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:49 pm

i think laroche is probably around 2 or3 years away from showing 25-30 hr power, but i do think he will become a stable producer at the 1b spot in the future....... this year somewhere around 15-18 hrs from him i think would be as good as he gets.....
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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:04 pm

I doubt LaRoche will ever reach the 30 HR plateau, but he will hit around 15 with a moderately high batting average when given the chance. He is so similar to Mark Grace tools-wise it's almost scary - he has the great glove and a very smooth swing with gap power as evidenced by his 2B numbers in limited ABs. If you want a good idea of what LaRoche's numbers would potentially look like if he wasn't platooning with Franco look at Overbay's 2004 season.
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Postby kentx12 » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:52 pm

I expect LaRoche to be a decent 1st baseman when he gets the chance to play everyday but this year he will be splitting time with Franco.
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