Time to downgrade Arod? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Time to downgrade Arod?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Better draft pick:

Arod
20
36%
Vlad
36
64%
 
Total votes : 56

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jan 07, 2005 7:40 pm

ERBOES, good to see you. How's your site doing? I don't expect Arod to drop to $29 myself, like you are hinting. He should pass the 106 rbis easily. He was a bit unfortunate in hit % at 31. If he hits 33%, 300 avg should be there. Vlad's hit% was 33, when he's hit 330. Dropped 25-30 points when he's been at 31%. Do you think Arod will be more relaxed this year. He pressed bad with risp last year. Vlad will out earn Arod no doubt. The question is by how much, and how much do you factor in position scarcity? How did you come up with 15 better player's last year? Value? Did you factor in scarcity?

CORNBREAD, last year in a 5x5 Vlad earned $37 to Arods $32.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Erboes » Fri Jan 07, 2005 8:08 pm

HOOTIE wrote:ERBOES, good to see you. How's your site doing? I don't expect Arod to drop to $29 myself, like you are hinting. He should pass the 106 rbis easily. He was a bit unfortunate in hit % at 31. If he hits 33%, 300 avg should be there. Vlad's hit% was 33, when he's hit 330. Dropped 25-30 points when he's been at 31%. Do you think Arod will be more relaxed this year. He pressed bad with risp last year. Vlad will out earn Arod no doubt. The question is by how much, and how much do you factor in position scarcity? How did you come up with 15 better player's last year? Value? Did you factor in scarcity?

CORNBREAD, last year in a 5x5 Vlad earned $37 to Arods $32.


Site's doing great, Hootie. Thanks for asking.

I see you're still siting the Forecaster, huh? Wasn't one season enough?

Here's my point about A-Rod. His numbers last season mirrored very closely his road numbers while he played in Texas other than steals, and if you are like me you believe road numbers are a better indicator of a player's true hitting ability than what he does at home, agreed? You add to it the fact that Yankee stadium is not conducive to his hitting style and you cannot help but come to the conclusion that there is no way he will ever come close to his numbers he put up in Texas. You add up these factors and what you have is about a .290 hitter with 40 HR power as long as he he's a Yankee. Are there going to be seasons where he does better than that? Yes, but there are going to be seasons that he does worse too, but I think those are the numbers that will be his norm. I do believe he will get a few more runs and RBI's next season, but not enough to substantially increase his value. Our projections for him have an increase in everything for him but steals (which we dropped to 17), and he is still only the eighth best hitter in our projections. If we put him at 28 like last season he becomes fifth. I agree with you, he will do better, but not that much better to put him within shouting distance of Pujols and Guerrero. Only time will tell who is right though.

I don't understand this position scarcity thing. What position scarcity?
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:09 pm

ERBOES, i agree in about everything you stated. You, like me, agree that Arod's numbers likely improve in everything but sb. He won't ever be the Texas Arod again. I just think he pressed a bit. His numbers with runners on, risp, were un Arod. While his road ops was on par with years past, for some reason, his road hrs were 5 under his road avg, for the previous 6 seasons before hand. There's no question Vlad is the better hitter now, and will out earn Arod. Last year was $5 more. The question is, will it be less then 5, stay there, or get a bigger gap? I'm not saying take Arod over Vlad, i just think it's close because of the infield. I just like a strong infield myself, which is why i brought up position. How close does the value have to be for you to consider Arod in shouting distance? I think the only thing we disagree on is how much the difference will be?
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Erboes » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:19 pm

HOOTIE wrote:ERBOES, i agree in about everything you stated. You, like me, agree that Arod's numbers likely improve in everything but sb. He won't ever be the Texas Arod again. I just think he pressed a bit. His numbers with runners on, risp, were un Arod. While his road ops was on par with years past, for some reason, his road hrs were 5 under his road avg, for the previous 6 seasons before hand. There's no question Vlad is the better hitter now, and will out earn Arod. Last year was $5 more. The question is, will it be less then 5, stay there, or get a bigger gap? I'm not saying take Arod over Vlad, i just think it's close because of the infield. I just like a strong infield myself, which is why i brought up position. How close does the value have to be for you to consider Arod in shouting distance? I think the only thing we disagree on is how much the difference will be?


I have them with the same everything, practically, with one difference -- average, .336 to .292. This is huge, Hootie. For example, if you were allowed to start 10 players and had a .282 average through the first 9 players, A-Rod would raise your average to .283 and Guerrero would raise it to, what, .287? That would probably mean an extra three or four points alone, no? This accounts for the difference between A-Rod's $34 value and Guerrero's $42.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby sockeye » Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:05 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Well, instead of using the sample size of the greatest basestealers ever, Id go with all MLB players. I think using the best as an indication of normal is a mistake, dont you?



No, not all MLB basestealers. All MLB basestealers that accurately represent A-Rod. Simply put, try to find a way to classify basestealers (I'm sure it can be done), see which one(s) are a good fit for A-Rod, and see what THOSE guys did at 30. That would be much more convinceing to me (and other statisticians) than looking at everyone from Ozzie Smith to Dave Parker to Fred Lynn (who peaked around age 12).

I agree that guys slow as they get older, and that 30 is probably on or near the start of the descent. But this # won;t cappture all players, and it may be quite possible that A-Rod is a) A-Rod won;t appreciably lose speed until later, or b) is the kind of basestealer that won't be affected as much by a speed drop.
sockeye
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 492
Joined: 26 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby sockeye » Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:13 pm

EDIT: Here is the study.[/quote]


Interesting study, LB Jackal - what is the citation?


Thanks.
sockeye
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 492
Joined: 26 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Sep. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

LA Dodgers at Chi Cubs
(1:05 pm)
Detroit at Kansas City
(1:05 pm)
Toronto at NY Yankees
(4:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Arizona at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Boston at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
Chi White Sox at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Cleveland at Minnesota
(7:10 pm)
Washington at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Houston
(7:10 pm)
NY Mets at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
Cincinnati at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(8:40 pm)
Texas at LA Angels
(9:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact