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Time to downgrade Arod?

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Better draft pick:

Arod
20
36%
Vlad
36
64%
 
Total votes : 56

Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:08 pm

Don't you remember -- during the playoffs especially -- all the talking heads on FOX kept going on and on about how he couldn't lift his arm above his head but he was still able to hit? :-? Or did I just imagine all that? :-o
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Postby Erboes » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:09 pm

WeaponsMasProduction wrote:his numbers would have to fall off pretty dramatically for him to become a fringe second round pick Erboes.

I know everyone dislikes arod but he still is one of the very best players in the game both realistically and fantasy wise.


Look, weapons, I do this for a living and believe me when I tell you, A-Rod was only a top 15 player last season. You can make claims that he will return to his Texas-type numbers next season and you may end up being right, but I could argue with a lot more facts than you that he won't, and it he doesn't he is a fringe first round type at best.

About his SB's I am once again on the side of Cornbread. It has nothing to do with age or anything, just his desire and opportunity to steal that many again. Still, I readily admit I could be wrong, but I will say right now that even if he does steal 28 again it still won't make him a top three player, and since that is only where you can draft him I could say with utmost confidence that if you end up with him it will be a poor investment.
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Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:10 pm

hes one guy im definitely going to target in the draft. i think sheffs #'s will rise this year. and he'll probably be available in the second
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:12 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Regression to the mean.


How can you use mean average as an indicator when he was allowed to attempt 34/yr in Seattle but only 18/yr in Texas? Witha a split like this, the mean is a useless statistic. This is the kind of situation that caused Twain to state "facts are stubbord things, statistics are more pliable".

Cornbread wrote:Age - 30 is not prime, Mookie, but if thats what you believe... ;-7
- that baseball referrence link you gave - you cant seriously be using that as your proof that the prime age is 30, right?


Why don't you go through the stats of base stealers. There is no natural decline at the age of 30. Their totals go up and down depending on their situation but 30 is either average or the apex for most basestealers. Coleman steadily declined, but he started off with over a hundred in his rookie year. Where do you get your info that prof baseball players start declining at 30?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:21 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:
Cornbread wrote:Age - 30 is not prime, Mookie, but if thats what you believe... ;-7
- that baseball referrence link you gave - you cant seriously be using that as your proof that the prime age is 30, right?


Why don't you go through the stats of base stealers. There is no natural decline at the age of 30. Their totals go up and down depending on their situation but 30 is either average or the apex for most basestealers. Coleman steadily declined, but he started off with over a hundred in his rookie year. Where do you get your info that prof baseball players start declining at 30?


Tell you what - since its common theory to assume a player steals less as they get older after the 25-28 peak years, and since you are the one taking the stand outside of common perception - that a player's SB peak actually come in at the age of 30, why dont you prove to me that you're right. :-b

Now, correct me if Im wrong, but from the link you provided, Im assuming you are using that to prove your theory. If thats the case, then what you have done is taken the alltime steals leaders as your sample study. :-?

You prove to me that a player hits his peak basestealing years at 30. Im an open minded guy, educate me.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:42 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
Cornbread wrote:Age - 30 is not prime, Mookie, but if thats what you believe... ;-7
- that baseball referrence link you gave - you cant seriously be using that as your proof that the prime age is 30, right?


Why don't you go through the stats of base stealers. There is no natural decline at the age of 30. Their totals go up and down depending on their situation but 30 is either average or the apex for most basestealers. Coleman steadily declined, but he started off with over a hundred in his rookie year. Where do you get your info that prof baseball players start declining at 30?


Tell you what - since its common theory to assume a player steals less as they get older after the 25-28 peak years, and since you are the one taking the stand outside of common perception - that a player's SB peak actually come in at the age of 30, why dont you prove to me that you're right. :-b

Now, correct me if Im wrong, but from the link you provided, Im assuming you are using that to prove your theory. If thats the case, then what you have done is taken the alltime steals leaders as your sample study. :-?

You prove to me that a player hits his peak basestealing years at 30. Im an open minded guy, educate me.


I think that you just pulled the 25-28 number out of the air.

The link that I provided is not to prove a theory - there is no theory. How do you want to "prove" where the peak is for basestealers? I used that link to see at what age basestealers peak.

Besides looking at the careers of basestealers I don't know what you want from me. You can look at the all-time best Rickey (1406 career SB, 612 after the age of 30) or players who are more comparable in terms of the number of attempts per year: Ozzie Smith 580 career and 339 of those after the age of 30, Vizquel 318 career and 159 of those after the age of 30.

These don't prove anything and I don't know what you want from me. But I have been looking over career SB numbers and your statement that SB numbers decline after the age of 25-28 is not true.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:50 pm

Well, instead of using the sample size of the greatest basestealers ever, Id go with all MLB players. I think using the best as an indication of normal is a mistake, dont you?
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:54 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Well, instead of using the sample size of the greatest basestealers ever, Id go with all MLB players. I think using the best as an indication of normal is a mistake, dont you?


Ozzie Smith and Omar Viquel are the greatest basestealers ever?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 1:03 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Well, instead of using the sample size of the greatest basestealers ever, Id go with all MLB players. I think using the best as an indication of normal is a mistake, dont you?


Ozzie Smith and Omar Viquel are the greatest basestealers ever?


no.

but...

Mookie4evah wrote:His age is not an issue at all. 30 is a prime age for basestealers. Take a look at the numbers of the top basestealers of all time:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... reer.shtml


When you say that, what you are implying is that you want me to look at the link as a basis for your theory.

The link is a list of the alltime greatest basestealers. Therefore, can I conclude that you are basing your theory from a list of the greatest basestealers ever?

Im pretty sure you need an out at this point Mookie, that is, unless you can prove to me that the average baseballplayer peaks when he hits 30. What you have shown me at this point is anecdotal evidence that the greatest basestealers ever continue to run even when they hit 30.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 07, 2005 1:13 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Im pretty sure you need an out at this point Mookie, that is, unless you can prove to me that the average baseballplayer peaks when he hits 30. What you have shown me at this point is anecdotal evidence that the greatest basestealers ever continue to run even when they hit 30.


And that's worse than what you have provided?

Your evidence is:

1) everybody knows that basestealers go down hill when they hit 30 (with less evidence than I supplied); and

2) his average numbers are lower than 25, completely ignoring that he was only given the green light 18/yr in Texas.

I think that you need the out.
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