I have still not heard a single reason from anybody why A-Rod's SB numbers should go down except for Jackal's assertion that he is 30 and that this is when SB numbers should go down.
His age is not an issue at all. 30 is a prime age for basestealers. Take a look at the numbers of the top basestealers of all time:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... reer.shtml
They almost all are at their most productive at stealing bases at the age of 30. Base stealing is not all about speed and acceleration but also about reading pitchers, picking your spots, and most importantly gaining the trust of your coaches to get the green light.
Even including last year's (supposed) inflated numbers A-Rod is a career 80% basestealer (205/255). Last year that increased to 87.5% (28/32). So even though he was older, he got better.
The numbers fully support A-Rod getting more than 25 SB again this year.
In his 5 full years in Seattle A-Rod was allowed to average 34 SB attempts per year and he averaged 25.2 SB.
In Texas they cut that down to only 18 Attempts per year. Of course he is going to steal fewer than 20 per year if they only let him attempt 18.
In NY they let him go back up to Seattle norm of 30+ attempts and he responded with an 87.5% success rate. Will this continue? There is no reason to suspect that it won't.
* he is in his prime basestealing years
* he has a great career SB% and did even better last year
* the Yankees let their players run: Jeter has averaged over 28 attempts per year in his last 9 years in NY, Soriano averaged 38 attempts per year in his three full seasons in NY. The conclusion I draw is that if you earn Torre's trust, he gives you the green light. Even Cairo and Mondesi were allowed to run whenever they wanted to.
I may be wrong but everything points to A-Rod getting 25+ SB this year and if your league counts CS he is even better for you.
Even though I believe that his SB numbers will be up there, I do not agree with others who project his RBI and HR numbers to increase.