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Time to downgrade Arod?

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Better draft pick:

Arod
20
36%
Vlad
36
64%
 
Total votes : 56

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:04 am

I have still not heard a single reason from anybody why A-Rod's SB numbers should go down except for Jackal's assertion that he is 30 and that this is when SB numbers should go down.

His age is not an issue at all. 30 is a prime age for basestealers. Take a look at the numbers of the top basestealers of all time:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... reer.shtml

They almost all are at their most productive at stealing bases at the age of 30. Base stealing is not all about speed and acceleration but also about reading pitchers, picking your spots, and most importantly gaining the trust of your coaches to get the green light.

Even including last year's (supposed) inflated numbers A-Rod is a career 80% basestealer (205/255). Last year that increased to 87.5% (28/32). So even though he was older, he got better.

The numbers fully support A-Rod getting more than 25 SB again this year.

In his 5 full years in Seattle A-Rod was allowed to average 34 SB attempts per year and he averaged 25.2 SB.

In Texas they cut that down to only 18 Attempts per year. Of course he is going to steal fewer than 20 per year if they only let him attempt 18.

In NY they let him go back up to Seattle norm of 30+ attempts and he responded with an 87.5% success rate. Will this continue? There is no reason to suspect that it won't.

* he is in his prime basestealing years
* he has a great career SB% and did even better last year
* the Yankees let their players run: Jeter has averaged over 28 attempts per year in his last 9 years in NY, Soriano averaged 38 attempts per year in his three full seasons in NY. The conclusion I draw is that if you earn Torre's trust, he gives you the green light. Even Cairo and Mondesi were allowed to run whenever they wanted to.

I may be wrong but everything points to A-Rod getting 25+ SB this year and if your league counts CS he is even better for you.

Even though I believe that his SB numbers will be up there, I do not agree with others who project his RBI and HR numbers to increase.
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Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:14 am

The only reason I can see his sb's go down, and it may be a little farfetched so bear with me, is he will be under less pressure this year. Torre lets his players run whenever they want to provided they dont make a lot of stupid descisions. As we all know arod was underperforming, particularly at the start of the season and was also replacing soriano who was a fan favorite. I think he really wanted to impress the fans and be productive so he ran more than he might have had he been mashing the ball. Of course this is just a theory but I think there is some validity to it. I think this year the worse he hits the more bags he steals. Most importantly its really up to him how many bases he steals since he should always have the green light. All that said i think he swipes around 25 this year.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:29 am

Why did Sheff's SB numbers decline in NY? His career SB% is close to 70%, and he is as experienced and wise as Arod, right, so under the theory you guys are using, his SB numbers should spike in NY - what happened?

Mookie - I like the selective data sample you used to "prove" the peak baserunning yrs are right around 30. ;-7

Im gonna go with 25ish based on common sense - I know I could run a whole lot faster 5 yrs ago than I could today - I bet you could too. ;-D

ARod's 2005 projection:
115, 38, 105, 18, .295

Thats not 1st rd stuff for a 3B guys. He is living off name recognition, a history of hitting in a hitters park, and an inflated SB total based on one yr - when he was 30.

Most of the pro Arod arguments Ive seen on this thread are taking every optimistic projection for each cat, and combining them to come up with their total projection for him - just to qualify him as a top 3 pick.

Also, I have yet to see a post from a pro-arod supporter that talks about his actual fantasy value from a $ perspective. How much was he worth last yr? How much was Vlad, Beltran, or Tejada, worth comparitively - since thats essentially the range you are suggesting he is in? Id like to see you guys defend that one.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:40 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Why did Sheff's SB numbers decline in NY? His career SB% is close to 70%, and he is as experienced and wise as Arod, right, so under the theory you guys are using, his SB numbers should spike in NY - what happened?

Mookie - I like the selective data sample you used to "prove" the peak baserunning yrs are right around 30. ;-7

Im gonna go with 25ish based on common sense - I know I could run a whole lot faster 5 yrs ago than I could today - I bet you could too. ;-D

ARod's 2005 projection:
115, 38, 105, 18, .295

Thats not 1st rd stuff for a 3B guys. He is living off name recognition, a history of hitting in a hitters park, and an inflated SB total based on one yr - when he was 30.

Most of the pro Arod arguments Ive seen on this thread are taking every optimistic projection for each cat, and combining them to come up with their total projection for him - just to qualify him as a top 3 pick.

Also, I have yet to see a post from a pro-arod supporter that talks about his actual fantasy value from a $ perspective. How much was he worth last yr? How much was Vlad, Beltran, or Tejada, worth comparitively - since thats essentially the range you are suggesting he is in? Id like to see you guys defend that one.


Don't get me wrong CB - I don't even have A-Rod in my top 5. I'm not crazy about him, I just don't know why people think that his SB totals will go down. Nobody has given a reason except for his age - It boggles the mind.

Nice pick on Sheff. He was 35 when he came to NY. 30=basestealling prime, 35=not.

Strangely enough when he was 30 Sheff had his second highest ever basestealing numbers, in limited AB.

Tell me CBM, why should his SB numbers go down?
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:42 am

To me Arod and Vlad are pretty even fantasy-wise except BA. Vlad takes it by 25+ points easy.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:47 am

Mookie4ever wrote:Tell me CBM, why should his SB numbers go down?


Regression to the mean.
Age - 30 is not prime, Mookie, but if thats what you believe... ;-7
- that baseball referrence link you gave - you cant seriously be using that as your proof that the prime age is 30, right?

You have said over and over in this thread no one has given you a reason to think his SB numbers wold decline, but the truth is you simply dont want to agree with or believe the reasons many have already said.

I listed 2 above - either is good enough to discount SB projections for next yr - ignore them if you want.
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Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:54 am

Sheffield couldnt even lift his arm above his head for a lot of the year. I think that had even more to do with the lower steal total than his age, though his age will certainly limit his steals too.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:58 am

WeaponsMasProduction wrote:Sheffield couldnt even lift his arm above his head for a lot of the year. I think that had even more to do with the lower steal total than his age, though his age will certainly limit his steals too.


I didnt know that - Sheffield was injured all last yr?
Maybe I should have put one more bid in for him :-?

Can anyone corroborate WMPs claim that Sheff was injured - not that I dont believe you, WMD, but thats something I think I would have known about.
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Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:02 pm

from the ny daily news

Surgery shouldn't slow Sheff



BY ANTHONY McCARRON
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

Gary Sheffield underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder yesterday and doctors did not find a torn labrum, Sheffield's attorney said, so the Yankee right fielder is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.
Dr. James Andrews, the famed Birmingham, Ala. orthopedist, removed scar tissue in Sheffield's shoulder, said Sheffield's attorney, Rufus Williams. Sheffield's shoulder bothered him most of the season, at times making him unable to lift his arm above shoulder height. Still, he was second in the AL MVP voting behind Anaheim's Vladimir Guerrero.

Williams described the surgery as "about what was expected. It was all arthroscope. The labrum may have a little damage, but it's not torn. They went in and cleaned out scar tissue and hopefully got it to where it should be."

The Yankees estimated Sheffield's rehab time at 4-5 weeks, but Williams was more conservative, saying only, "We expect he should be ready to go for spring training. We're happy with where he is now."




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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:04 pm

wow - I had no idea - thanks for the heads up, although its about 12 hours too late.

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