Time to downgrade Arod? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Time to downgrade Arod?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Better draft pick:

Arod
20
36%
Vlad
36
64%
 
Total votes : 56

Postby blankman » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:04 am

Scott Boras Client wrote:Well, I guess if you ascribe aRod's Roadrunner act to his new team only, and none of the other vagaries of life, then I can see how you might conclude that him staying on the same team means same number of stolen bases every year. Good luck with that.


You still haven't made a good point to back up your claim that "last year's SB numbers were a fluke."
blankman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Graphics Expert
Posts: 10770
Joined: 6 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby thedude » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:05 am

blankman wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:
blankman wrote:
If you say so. You speak as if there is no possibility for error in your predictions.


Possibility of error, sure. Probability of error, very doubtful.

When did the last rightie hit 40 HR's while playing for the Yankees?


Alex hit 36 in what many are calling a down year for him. Soriano hit 39 and 38 for the Yankees and Alex is certainly a better player. I'll take your bet and say Alex will hit 40 HR's this season.


to use your logic on the strolen base stat he will only hit 35 home runs this year.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
thedude
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 8413
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 18 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Good Life

Postby blankman » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:06 am

Skippyoz wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Vlad and I don't have to think about it much.

Vlad: .335 - 37 - 122 - 124 - 21

A-Rod: .294 - 44 - 124 - 122 - 15

That's what I have projected. Vlad wins that pretty handily, and he also has the potential to get a lot more steals whereas I wouldn't trust A-Rod to get more than 20, despite his 28 last year.


Why not Pujols? He seems more of a "lock" to get the four big categories (R, HR, RBI, and AVG) as he has shown the past four years. A-Rod "could" (but I don't think he will), revert back to steals in the teens as could Vlad. A-Rod could also hit under .300 like the last two seasons. Vlad could re-injure his back and miss a few games. Plus, the OF and 3B positions are fairly deep with good players. 3B could be deeper than 1B this year.

My projections for Pujols:

.335 - 45 - 130 - 130 - 5


My argument is this: Go for the best lock at the four big cats, and, if later in the draft you need steals, there should be plenty to choose from (Juan Pierre or Carl Crawford or Scott Podsednick).

Just my opinion.


This discussion was solely, Vlad or Alex, "who's better?" It wasn't an argument over who is #1. I'd bet that like most of us Jackal also has Pujols as his number 1 pick.
blankman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Graphics Expert
Posts: 10770
Joined: 6 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby LBJackal » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:11 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Vlad and I don't have to think about it much.

Vlad: .335 - 37 - 122 - 124 - 21

A-Rod: .294 - 44 - 124 - 122 - 15

That's what I have projected. Vlad wins that pretty handily, and he also has the potential to get a lot more steals whereas I wouldn't trust A-Rod to get more than 20, despite his 28 last year.


I've been asking this all over: why do people say that his sb will go down? There is no reason at all to assume this.


There are plenty of reasons. You might not agree with them, and who knows whose right until it happens, but the way I see it A-Rod's SB's will plummet.

He's turning 30, and SB's start to decline at age 24 I think it is. Yes, the Yanks let him run more than Texas did in his latter years there, but he's still due for a decline no matter what team he plays for based on age alone.

For his 5 seasons prior to 2004 he averaged 16 SB's, and 4 CS's. Last year he had 28 SB's and 4 CS's. He was successful at a much higher rate; will that continue? I really doubt it. Will he get the green light as much? I really doubt it. If I was an A-Rod owner I'd be very happy if he hit 20.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby duckbillgates » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:24 am

Scott Boras Client wrote:
Your logic in this discussion is so incredibly flawed it is downright sad.


So let me make sure I understand this right: every stat in the preceding season establishes the baseline for the player's performance in subsequent seasons with the same team. Is that the gist of it? I'm sorry my obtuseness saddens you.


OK, now this is just stupid. No one is saying this, and you know it.
Your argument, on the other hand, refuses to admit that the change of team has lead to more SB attempts and thus more SB. It's obvious that last season deserves more weight than you're giving it.
But, as long as you're obsessed with your averages, look at his low caught stealing numbers over the last three seasons.
You don't get any stolen bases when you don't run. If he continues to run more in NY, he will continue to have more steals.
If you want to look at an opposing case, look at Renteria. He attempted fewer steals in 2004, but was actually caught more. He's a guy on a downward steal trend, not A-Rod.
duckbillgates
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1216
Joined: 1 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: under a dead Ohio sky

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:17 am

The minute Arod left Texas, his value dropped a bit, because of losing ss, and park effects. People equate wearing pinstripes as increasing a player's value, but that's not always true.

Who do i like more? Hard to say, it's close. Let's look at real hitting., not fantasy.

From 00-03, Vlad and Arod were near twins in OPS, and RC/27. But in 04, park effects took over. From 01-03 in Texas, Arod had a .997 home OPS. Last year in NY, he had a .857 home OPS. Arod isn't getting worse as his road splits show, just that the difference between hitting in Texas versus NY, is huge for a RHB. Here's the road splits. From 01-03 a .937 OPS, to last years .920 road OPS.
Basically a push. So Vlad is now the better hitter by virtue of parks.

Now, who will steal more? Imo, both will be around 15-20. So Vlad likely will earn more in fantasy value (Vlad $37- Arod $32 last year). But Arod earns the position factor, even if 3b is loaded. Who to take. I could go either way. Vlad is a hair better as a player, but i like a strong infield. I will say a toss up.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby bleach168 » Fri Jan 07, 2005 7:12 am

Voted Arod because he doesn't have a herniated disk.

[/b]
"And so he spoke, and so he spoke, that lord of Castamere. But now the rains weep o'er his hall, with no one there to hear." - The Rains of Castamere
bleach168
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5058
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 22 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Erboes » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:02 am

HOOTIE wrote:The minute Arod left Texas, his value dropped a bit, because of losing ss, and park effects. People equate wearing pinstripes as increasing a player's value, but that's not always true.

Who do i like more? Hard to say, it's close. Let's look at real hitting., not fantasy.

From 00-03, Vlad and Arod were near twins in OPS, and RC/27. But in 04, park effects took over. From 01-03 in Texas, Arod had a .997 home OPS. Last year in NY, he had a .857 home OPS. Arod isn't getting worse as his road splits show, just that the difference between hitting in Texas versus NY, is huge for a RHB. Here's the road splits. From 01-03 a .937 OPS, to last years .920 road OPS.
Basically a push. So Vlad is now the better hitter by virtue of parks.

Now, who will steal more? Imo, both will be around 15-20. So Vlad likely will earn more in fantasy value (Vlad $37- Arod $32 last year). But Arod earns the position factor, even if 3b is loaded. Who to take. I could go either way. Vlad is a hair better as a player, but i like a strong infield. I will say a toss up.


Hootie, who am I too question you, but this makes little sense. If Guerrero was worth $37 last season and A-Rod was worth $32 and A-Rod's SB's drop to the 15-20 range, this would mean A-Rod's value would drop to about $29 if all things stay about the same. Are you saying a $29 A-Rod is just as valuable as a $37 Guerrero even thought the average value of a starting mixed league OF is only about a buck higher than at 3b?

To me, the question should no longer be whether A-Rod should go second in mixed drafts but whether he should go in the first round at all. With those SB's he was a fringe first round value last season and if they drop he becomes a fringe second rounder for this season unless he does significantly better with his stick, which I have my doubts. And to go the second pick he would need to not only keep his SB's up but hit 50 HR's and hit .300 as well. That, I have serious doubts about.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Fri Jan 07, 2005 10:27 am

his numbers would have to fall off pretty dramatically for him to become a fringe second round pick Erboes.

I know everyone dislikes arod but he still is one of the very best players in the game both realistically and fantasy wise.
Trees
WeaponsMasProduction
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 219
Joined: 2 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Trapped in the heart of red sox nation

Postby acsguitar » Fri Jan 07, 2005 10:58 am

I can't see an OF being more valuable then an IF...So I take AROD.
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
acsguitar
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Graphics Expert
Posts: 26722
Joined: 7 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Back in General Talk WOOO!!!

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 8 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Oct. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact