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Time to downgrade Arod?

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Better draft pick:

Arod
20
36%
Vlad
36
64%
 
Total votes : 56

Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:48 pm

thedude wrote:the reason vlad stopped running, the reason arod stopped running (for a whille) and will stop agian, the reason Barry, Sosa, and Cancesco stopped, and the reason Beltran will stop running is that teams have too much money tied up in these guys to have them injuried going head first into second base. They would rather them just hit homeruns and get on base 40% of the time than injure themselves in a game in Mid july against the Detriot Tigers. If a guy steals 40 bases it is pointless if he misses the post season with a bum hammy.


Your point has nothing to do with the fact that Alex plays for the NY Yankees and Joe Torre will let and encourage his superstars to run. This may be true with most teams, but it has nothing to do with the current New York Yankees.
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Postby Scott Boras Client » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:49 pm

Your logic in this discussion is so incredibly flawed it is downright sad.


So let me make sure I understand this right: every stat in the preceding season establishes the baseline for the player's performance in subsequent seasons with the same team. Is that the gist of it? I'm sorry my obtuseness saddens you.
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Postby thedude » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:51 pm

blankman wrote:
thedude wrote:the reason vlad stopped running, the reason arod stopped running (for a whille) and will stop agian, the reason Barry, Sosa, and Cancesco stopped, and the reason Beltran will stop running is that teams have too much money tied up in these guys to have them injuried going head first into second base. They would rather them just hit homeruns and get on base 40% of the time than injure themselves in a game in Mid july against the Detriot Tigers. If a guy steals 40 bases it is pointless if he misses the post season with a bum hammy.


Your point has nothing to do with the fact that Alex plays for the NY Yankees and Joe Torre will let and encourage his superstars to run. This may be true with most teams, but it has nothing to do with the current New York Yankees.


that worked great for jeter in 2003...
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Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:54 pm

thedude wrote:
blankman wrote:
thedude wrote:the reason vlad stopped running, the reason arod stopped running (for a whille) and will stop agian, the reason Barry, Sosa, and Cancesco stopped, and the reason Beltran will stop running is that teams have too much money tied up in these guys to have them injuried going head first into second base. They would rather them just hit homeruns and get on base 40% of the time than injure themselves in a game in Mid july against the Detriot Tigers. If a guy steals 40 bases it is pointless if he misses the post season with a bum hammy.


Your point has nothing to do with the fact that Alex plays for the NY Yankees and Joe Torre will let and encourage his superstars to run. This may be true with most teams, but it has nothing to do with the current New York Yankees.


that worked great for jeter in 2003...


And he still ran in 2004 once he was healthy. You make no point in relation to Alex's SB's going down.
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Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:56 pm

Scott Boras Client wrote:
Your logic in this discussion is so incredibly flawed it is downright sad.


So let me make sure I understand this right: every stat in the preceding season establishes the baseline for the player's performance in subsequent seasons with the same team. Is that the gist of it? I'm sorry my obtuseness saddens you.


The point is that a drastic change in situation (NY from Texas) may have great changes in how a player perfoms in different areas of the game and that past statistics are no longer a great indicator of future performance in such team dependent stats as stolen bases.
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Postby NZF » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:57 pm

blankman wrote:
If you say so. You speak as if there is no possibility for error in your predictions.


Possibility of error, sure. Probability of error, very doubtful.

When did the last rightie hit 40 HR's while playing for the Yankees?
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Postby Scott Boras Client » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:01 am

Well, I guess if you ascribe aRod's Roadrunner act to his new team only, and none of the other vagaries of life, then I can see how you might conclude that him staying on the same team means same number of stolen bases every year. Good luck with that.
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Postby blankman » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:01 am

New Zealand Fan wrote:
blankman wrote:
If you say so. You speak as if there is no possibility for error in your predictions.


Possibility of error, sure. Probability of error, very doubtful.

When did the last rightie hit 40 HR's while playing for the Yankees?


Alex hit 36 in what many are calling a down year for him. Soriano hit 39 and 38 for the Yankees and Alex is certainly a better player. I'll take your bet and say Alex will hit 40 HR's this season.
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Postby Skippyoz » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:01 am

LBJackal wrote:Vlad and I don't have to think about it much.

Vlad: .335 - 37 - 122 - 124 - 21

A-Rod: .294 - 44 - 124 - 122 - 15

That's what I have projected. Vlad wins that pretty handily, and he also has the potential to get a lot more steals whereas I wouldn't trust A-Rod to get more than 20, despite his 28 last year.


Why not Pujols? He seems more of a "lock" to get the four big categories (R, HR, RBI, and AVG) as he has shown the past four years. A-Rod "could" (but I don't think he will), revert back to steals in the teens as could Vlad. A-Rod could also hit under .300 like the last two seasons. Vlad could re-injure his back and miss a few games. Plus, the OF and 3B positions are fairly deep with good players. 3B could be deeper than 1B this year.

My projections for Pujols:

.335 - 45 - 130 - 130 - 5


My argument is this: Go for the best lock at the four big cats, and, if later in the draft you need steals, there should be plenty to choose from (Juan Pierre or Carl Crawford or Scott Podsednick).

Just my opinion.
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Postby thedude » Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:03 am

blankman wrote:And he still ran in 2004 once he was healthy. You make no point in relation to Alex's SB's going down.


all im saying is, maybe he will run, but the first time he misses a series of games because he strained something stealing agianst the Devil Rays the NY papers will burn Torre at the stake (maybe not the guy desreves better, but NY sports writers need something to complain about) and George will not be pleased.

to put it better: Conventional wisdom is "don't let a slugger run. He is too valueable." Jeter is a good player but stealing is part of his game, it is not necessarly the most important part of arod's game. Part of the reason Arod stole bases to show that he is a team player to the NY fans and press. But a wise manager doesn't let a slugger like arod hurt himself stealing. look for a decline in 2005.
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