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Time to downgrade Arod?

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Better draft pick:

Arod
20
36%
Vlad
36
64%
 
Total votes : 56

Postby duckbillgates » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:15 pm

Scott Boras Client wrote:His stolen bases will likely go down because they'll likely revert back toward his average over the last five years, which is 17. There are few precedents for players running more as they get older, and fewer still for sluggers running wild with Sheffied, Matsui, Posada hitting behind them. Last year was a fluke, stolen bases wise, for The Cooler.

Blankman: there's less incentive to risk an out on the basepaths when the next hitter is slugging .600. or .500, for that matter.


i don't follow the logic of this. You're essentially saying that you should throw out last year (or look at as a fluke) when trying to determine how many stolen bases A-Rod will steal as a Yankee this year.
You point at the big bats hitting behind him as evidence, despite the fact this was the same situation last year. That makes no sense.
i agree that it goes against tradition to send a runner with a big bat at the plate, but that's what happened last year.
i'm trying to understand why everyone wants to say A-Rod will revert to his stolen base numbers in his last couple of seasons with the Rangers. There is more to support the argument that he will be closer to 2004. Just my opinion.
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Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:19 pm

Yeah I see no reason A rod would steal any less this year. Its just foolish to think they will revert back to his nmbers in Texas. The yankees obviously run a lot more than texas, look what happened to soriano when he went to texas.
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Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:22 pm

WeaponsMasProduction wrote:Yeah I see no reason A rod would steal any less this year. Its just foolish to think they will revert back to his nmbers in Texas. The yankees obviously run a lot more than texas, look what happened to soriano when he went to texas.


The Soriano point is another good one ;-D
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:23 pm

I would also take Vlad by a hair, because he is a legitimate triple crown threat. And ARod losing SS hurts his value enough for me to consider taking Vlad over him.
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Postby Scott Boras Client » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:28 pm

Didn't stop him from running last year.

He has stolen 46 in the past.


Sounds like you're guys not worried about small sample size. Jeter stole 32 bags for Torre in '02. The next year he was hurt part of the time, and stole only 11. Last year he was healthy, but stole only 23. Did that represent a change in Yankee "small-ball" strategy? (Boy do I hope they employ it again. Especially at Fenway. :-) )
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Postby WeaponsMasProduction » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:30 pm

a small sample of arod as a yankee is FAR more valuable than a large sample as a ranger
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Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:40 pm

Scott Boras Client wrote:
Didn't stop him from running last year.

He has stolen 46 in the past.


Sounds like you're guys not worried about small sample size. Jeter stole 32 bags for Torre in '02. The next year he was hurt part of the time, and stole only 11. Last year he was healthy, but stole only 23. Did that represent a change in Yankee "small-ball" strategy? (Boy do I hope they employ it again. Especially at Fenway. :-) )


A little hurt? Jeter had a dislocated shoulder in '03, missed all of May and played in only 119 games, so there was no reason for him to risk getting hurt again. You also failed to notice the horrific first three months Jeter had last season. He was hardly on base, so of course that hurt his SB numbers. Your logic in this discussion is so incredibly flawed it is downright sad.
Last edited by blankman on Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby NZF » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:43 pm

duckbillgates wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Vlad and I don't have to think about it much.

Vlad: .335 - 37 - 122 - 124 - 21

A-Rod: .294 - 44 - 124 - 122 - 15

That's what I have projected. Vlad wins that pretty handily, and he also has the potential to get a lot more steals whereas I wouldn't trust A-Rod to get more than 20, despite his 28 last year.


Looks awfully close to me. Vlad with a strong advantage in average, a few more steals, A-Rod with nearly 10 more homers, other categories a wash? And i know 3B is deeper than ever, but it still isn't the outfield.
i'm also a little unclear on why you project more steals for Vlad. i think their first year with their new teams is a better indicator than past performance, and A-Rod had a 13-steal advantage in 2004.
i say it's very, very close, but A-Rod by a whisker. Wish i had such a dilemma on draft day ...


The 40 - 50 point difference in BA over 650 odd AB's is the decider. Away from Arlington again in 2005, A-Rod will struggle to post anything better than a .285 / .290 average. Vlad is a .330 plus monster. The HR difference will be miniscule There is no way A-Rod will hit 44 HR's in New York. That park is very tough on righties.

Vlad easily.
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Postby thedude » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:45 pm

the reason vlad stopped running, the reason arod stopped running (for a whille) and will stop agian, the reason Barry, Sosa, and Cancesco stopped, and the reason Beltran will stop running is that teams have too much money tied up in these guys to have them injuried going head first into second base. They would rather them just hit homeruns and get on base 40% of the time than injure themselves in a game in Mid july against the Detriot Tigers. If a guy steals 40 bases it is pointless if he misses the post season with a bum hammy.



Oh and i dropped arod because he won't be a SS next season, that makes all the difference. i can find better value elsewhere.
Last edited by thedude on Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:45 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
duckbillgates wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Vlad and I don't have to think about it much.

Vlad: .335 - 37 - 122 - 124 - 21

A-Rod: .294 - 44 - 124 - 122 - 15

That's what I have projected. Vlad wins that pretty handily, and he also has the potential to get a lot more steals whereas I wouldn't trust A-Rod to get more than 20, despite his 28 last year.


Looks awfully close to me. Vlad with a strong advantage in average, a few more steals, A-Rod with nearly 10 more homers, other categories a wash? And i know 3B is deeper than ever, but it still isn't the outfield.
i'm also a little unclear on why you project more steals for Vlad. i think their first year with their new teams is a better indicator than past performance, and A-Rod had a 13-steal advantage in 2004.
i say it's very, very close, but A-Rod by a whisker. Wish i had such a dilemma on draft day ...


The 40 - 50 point difference in BA over 650 odd AB's is the decider. Away from Arlington again in 2005, A-Rod will struggle to post anything better than a .285 / .290 average. Vlad is a .330 plus monster. The HR difference will be miniscule There is no way A-Rod will hit 44 HR's in New York. That park is very tough on righties.

Vlad easily.


If you say so. You speak as if there is no possibility for error in your predictions.
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