Do you guys see Abreu putting up similar numbers this year?

[quicksilver8]

I agree that his steals could and probably will slide down to 20-25. His average should still be .300+ with 100 walks 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs. Fantasy wise, this guy is as good as anyone in the league.

[willieroe]

If I end up acquiring Abreu for one of my teams in 2005: .290, 20 HR, 24 SB.

If I do not acquire Abreu: .310, 30 HR, 40 SB.

Glad to help with your question. Will keep you updated...

[shortsavage]

I don't think Abreu's steal totals will drop as far as many people here has suggested. Other than accounting for aging, why would you expect his steals to drop?

Abreu is ranked as my #4 overall OF for 2005. He is an A+ fantasy player, completely capable of carrying a fantasy team on his back.

[quicksilver8]

Steals could go down because of 1) a new manager that doesn't have a 'run' mentality and 2) he will likely hit #3 in front of Thome...where you normally don't run.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Why did he only have 22 SBs in 2003?
Since his avg over the last 6 yrs is roughly 30 per season, why would you conclude he will stay at 40?

[shortsavage]

Abreu was WAY out of shape in 2003. He really got his act together going into the 2004 season, showing up at camp in the best shape of his life (30 pounds lighter than in the previous season). That loss of weight and gain in discipline is enough for me to continue to believe that he will be a top stolen base threat.

I think looking at the manager factor, especially when we still do not fully understand how things will change, is an act of over-analysis.

Abreu has been batting in front of Thome a lot the last few years. Thus, I do not see that factor, if it does in fact end up being the case - Abreu hit 5th for a fair amount of last season - , taking away from his stolen base totals.

I still do not think there has been an adequate, logical argument for why Abreu's steals will drop dramatically. It seems like many people are dancing around the topic and floating on utility reasoning, rather than dissecting the originally proposed question.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

I still do not think there has been an adequate, logical argument for why Abreu's steals will drop dramatically. It seems like many people are dancing around the topic and floating on utility reasoning, rather than dissecting the originally proposed question.

So, regression to the mean is not a logical argument as to why we should expect his numbers to drop?

[shortsavage]

I still do not think there has been an adequate, logical argument for why Abreu's steals will drop dramatically. It seems like many people are dancing around the topic and floating on utility reasoning, rather than dissecting the originally proposed question.

So, regression to the mean is not a logical argument as to why we should expect his numbers to drop?

Did you read my last post?

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Yes, you addressed 2003, the batting order, and the new manager. You didnt say why we should expect him to outproduce his 6 yr avg of 30 SBs per season again. Thats the regression to the mean I was talking about.

Also, Im sure you have seen the study going around here recently showing that players do gradually steal fewer bases around here as they get older - I think 24 was the peak.

Can you address this study in relation to his 30 SB per yr avg, and why you expect 40 again?

[shortsavage]

I never said that I expected 40 steals again, just that I don't see reason for a significant drop.