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Do you guys see Abreu putting up similar numbers this year?

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Jan 06, 2005 4:23 pm

Career yr last yr.

31 yo.
he will not approach 40 Sbs again this yr
I can see 100/25/100/25/.300 as long as he stays health.

Now, I know that its common to look at a players health to speculate on it, and the most common theory is that if a player is injured then he is likely to reinjure himself. Personally I look at it completely different - I fully believe that the odds that a player plays for many years without getting injured or losing time isnt that great - therefore when I see a guy put together 7-8 seasons of over 150 games each season, a little red flag goes up - call it my Murphy's Law Radar.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Jan 06, 2005 5:16 pm

The red flag on Abreu's value is SBs and these could drop precipitously. Bowa loved to run every chance he got, he was extreme among managers in this sense. Odds are that the new guy (who I am too lazy to look up, but it's Manuel, no?) will run less, and maybe even a lot less. There are not a lot of managers who will give their #3 hitter a chance to steal 40, especially with Thome hitting behind him.

So even if Abreu has not slipped a bit in terms of skill, odds are that his overall value will decrease since he will be afforded fewer SB opportunities.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:14 am

I agree with those projecting Bobby for a drop in SBs; how far will be determined in large part by Manuel's managerial plans. Somewhere between 20-30 seems reasonable.

No reason his other numbers should drop, and I think he hits the 30-HR plateau in that new bandbox.
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Postby blankman » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:26 am

bronxxbomber wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:Which makes him just as good a value pick as Carlos Beltran in Fantasy BB.


Let's not go there yet ;-)


Why not? It does depend on where Beltran goes IMO. With the Mets I think he outruns Abreu, but his HR's suffer. In Houston his HR's go up, but I don't know about the SB's.

Abreu should hit be better average and he is more proven. I currently rate them about even. If you want to take a bit of a risk Beltran has the higher ceiling but Abreu is a more sure thing in my opinion.
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Postby wrveres » Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:51 am

Bobby has been incredibly consistent over his entire career. He is always undervalued but just produces. I see no reason for Manuel to but the brakes on him. If I remember right, one of the greatest attributes of Manuel’s Indians was team speed.

hmm .. :-?

Well I just went and looked at the team stats for 2000, '01 and '02 and Cleveland was not anything special as far as the SB. I seemed to remember that Lofton, Vizquel and Alomar were always off and running but I guess that was before Manuel ..

Can any of our Indian fans chime in on this?

What effect if any, do you think Manuel will have on the SB's production of guys like Abreu and Rollins?
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Postby stumpak » Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:06 am

I would expect the effect to be less on Rollins. Most managers have the mind-set to let their lead-off guy run, but there are not a lot of guys beyond Larry Bowa who are going to consistently let their #3 hitter run, especially with a guy like Thome on deck.
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Postby kentx12 » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:22 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:Which makes him just as good a value pick as Carlos Beltran in Fantasy BB.



I believe Abreu will be great but I dont put him near Beltran. Imo Abreu is a late 1st early 2nd round pick but Beltran is 1st or 2nd overall.
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Postby btownfu » Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:57 pm

Last year, BEFORE the season started, I made the claim to a friend of mine that Abreu was a poor man's Carlos Beltran, and i got ripped apart.

Low and behold he can be see as better than a poor man's carlos Beltran..he is really not that far off....besides about 8 more homeruns...beltran really didnt have that much more on abreu...

This year's poor man;s Bobby Abreu?? How about Corey Patterson? Obviously all based off of his second half and not his first
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Postby NZF » Sat Jan 08, 2005 4:06 pm

kentx12 wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:Which makes him just as good a value pick as Carlos Beltran in Fantasy BB.



I believe Abreu will be great but I dont put him near Beltran. Imo Abreu is a late 1st early 2nd round pick but Beltran is 1st or 2nd overall.


Beltran is still some way behind Pujols and Vlad. No.3 maybe, but I would be just as happy to have Abreu or Helton.

I know Abreu is unlikely to steal as many bases again, but steals are a risky category to depend on. The decider for me is BA. Beltran has added power at the expense of avg. Abreu will beat him hands down in that category.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Sat Jan 08, 2005 4:14 pm

btownfu wrote:This year's poor man;s Bobby Abreu?? How about Corey Patterson?


Shhh ... keep it down.
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