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Postby trevisc » Wed Jan 05, 2005 11:05 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:ok listen - what kind of numbers do you think it takes to win ERA? WHIP?

Just taking a stab at it Id say close to a 3.5 ERA is your goal, and a 1.22 WHIP should put you up near the top.

Now, what kind of numbers do you see for these pitchers? 4+ERA 1.3+ WHIP essentially.

Do any of them have a high K/9?



3.32 1.18 is what won the only roto league I played in.

I think pettitte will have era of around 3.65 and a whip in the neighborhood of 1.25 his k/ip will be about .80 or so and maybe better if he's totally healthy.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jan 05, 2005 11:16 am

trevisc wrote:
I think pettitte will have era of around 3.65 and a whip in the neighborhood of 1.25 his k/ip will be about .80 or so and maybe better if he's totally healthy.


Wow - thats significantly lower than his career averages. With all his health issues and the ballpark he plays in, why would you expect him to pitch so much better than what he normally has? I can see a slight drop because of playing in the NL, but not nearly as much of a drop as you are suggesting.

Maybe 4.0 ERA - at best 3.9.

His WHIP wont be below 1.3 - not a chance. Go back and look at his career numbers again. With a 10 yr record his avg WHIP is 1.38.

BTW - I agree about his k/IP. Its not bad - about avg for fantasy SPs.
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Postby trevisc » Wed Jan 05, 2005 11:25 am

I just looked at his numbers and i'll admit that his numbers at home are terrible but look at his away stats from last year

http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/5331/splits

he's almost untouchable. He wasn't healthy last year either which means he should get his numbers down even more. We'll see how it pans out but I'm predicting a decent season for him.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 05, 2005 11:26 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:ok listen - what kind of numbers do you think it takes to win ERA? WHIP?

Just taking a stab at it Id say close to a 3.5 ERA is your goal, and a 1.22 WHIP should put you up near the top.

Now, what kind of numbers do you see for these pitchers? 4+ERA 1.3+ WHIP essentially.

Do any of them have a high K/9?

Wins. Thats all those guys might help you in. Why do you want them? Taking pitchers because of their wins is a terrible strategy, but a strategy that is used too often by unknowledgable fantasy players. If a player helps you in Wins, but hurts you in two other cats getting those wins, is he worth it? NO!!!

The Yanks - humor me - what top MR pitchers are still available?
Rincon? Hawkins? Otsuka? These guys are so much more valuable than these dumpy pitchers you are choosing between its not even funny. Since its a roto league that (I assume) has an IP limit, you essentially have to look at what these pitchers do on a per IP basis. The top MR wins/IP, K/IP, ERA, and WHIP compare to the elite SPs in this league - like RJ and Santana. Put a couple together and have them help you in 4-5 cats instead of grabbing Pettitte because he has a recognizeable name, used to play for the Yankees, might get 15 wins, but hurt you in everything else.

BTW yanks04 - I think the Penny grab was solid. ;-D



Cornbread is right again, although I usually take chances on starters who have good K numbers and have the ability to help in ERA and WHIP such as Wolf. If he doesn't pan out you just get rid of him and pick up those relievers that Cornbread suggested because they are always available as FA's in mixed leagues. Westbrook may be good again this season, but he doesn't strike out anyone, so I wouldn't bother. Pettitte will be a hand grenade on your ERA and WHIP, and just like I said last season, he should be avoided at all costs. Lawton should be your pick, however. He's the class of that list.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Wed Jan 05, 2005 11:53 am

It should be noted that Pettitte has moved the the NL from the AL. ERA nd WHIP should drop and Ks rise in theory from his historical avgs and we did indeed see that last year even with the damage in his numbers his injury produced. I think some of you are looking into the stat sheet and not digging under the hood enough. Pettitte's K rate has been much better the past few seasons and his Ws should be there. If his ERA comes in at 3.7 and WHIP at 1.25(which is reasonable if he has a decent year) he is a very nice choice for a fantasy 4th SP. They are not all going to be Jonhan Santana and I could do a damn sight worse for my fantasy 5th which is what I was looking at.

As to the MR theory, it is all well in fine. However, you need to temper in that Ws from relievers are completely unpredicatble. If you think Juan Rincon is going to pile on Ws you are presuming something that is irrational. If you have an IP limit, then you have to temper what the decent MR does in Ws on avg (2-5 Ws) into the equation. And when drafting, no one I know drafts MRs before their 5th SP is filled (esp now that Lidge and Dotel are closers). A MR has not fallen from the board yet now in round 17 of a 12 team draft. The likes of Dontrelle Williis have. It makes little sense to pay higher prices in a draft for players than the market is bearing even if you think they are worth more. Also, fo rth emost part, MRs can be obtained during the year fro, the wire. How many of you actually drafted Rinco n last season..or Otsuka?
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:16 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:It should be noted that Pettitte has moved the the NL from the AL. ERA nd WHIP should drop and Ks rise in theory from his historical avgs and we did indeed see that last year even with the damage in his numbers his injury produced. I think some of you are looking into the stat sheet and not digging under the hood enough. Pettitte's K rate has been much better the past few seasons and his Ws should be there. If his ERA comes in at 3.7 and WHIP at 1.25(which is reasonable if he has a decent year) he is a very nice choice for a fantasy 4th SP. They are not all going to be Jonhan Santana and I could do a damn sight worse for my fantasy 5th which is what I was looking at.

As to the MR theory, it is all well in fine. However, you need to temper in that Ws from relievers are completely unpredicatble. If you think Juan Rincon is going to pile on Ws you are presuming something that is irrational. If you have an IP limit, then you have to temper what the decent MR does in Ws on avg (2-5 Ws) into the equation. And when drafting, no one I know drafts MRs before their 5th SP is filled (esp now that Lidge and Dotel are closers). A MR has not fallen from the board yet now in round 17 of a 12 team draft. The likes of Dontrelle Williis have. It makes little sense to pay higher prices in a draft for players than the market is bearing even if you think they are worth more. Also, fo rth emost part, MRs can be obtained during the year fro, the wire. How many of you actually drafted Rinco n last season..or Otsuka?


The only trend that really matters when switching leagues is that it takes hitters a while to figure out lefties. It is the only one that I have seen that is reliable enough that can be used as a rule of thumb. Pettitte had that advantage last season. What you need to look at is Pettitte's numbers away from Yankee stadium, which are a 4.33 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Probably more than any pitcher in the past ten years, Pettitte was helped greatly by pitching in Yankee stadium and you should know this. Those lazy fly balls that were caught by Williams in left-centerfield will be flying over the fences in Houston, and judging by his 5.80 ERA last season at home the evidence is already there. Don't be fooled by his overall numbers because they were artificially inflated because all of his road games were against weak hitting teams with the exception of one game versus Atlanta.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:21 pm

Good points Yanks - but I do disagree.

The drop in % some of you guys are projecting for Pettitte is optimistic to say the least. I do agree with projecting a slight drop from his 2003 #s, but to put much weight in last yrs numbers would be a mistake - an aberration to his norm.

Nice argument about relying too much on stats and not enough fundamental analysis Yanks - that sounds like something Id say. I still think the stats have too much of a history for me to toss them out and drop his ERA by .5 and his WHIP by .1 - I just cant do it.

I also disagree about the top MR - I dont think that the W/IP they post are completely based on luck. When their job is to be placed into games at meaningful times, then the chance that they get a W is much greater than other MR. The point is that some MR have higher W/IP totals and they arent based on luck but rather being in the right position at the right time as part of their role on the team.

I agree that you dont overpay for something - your right about that - I just cant agree with drafting a player who I beleive will actually hurt my overall stats - like I think Pettitte will. In your situation I would still consider taking Otsuka - not only does he have the incredible %s and Ks, but dont be suprised when he is tapped to be the closer too.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:37 pm

Cornbread - you are smarter than you look.

I agree with everything that you have posted, specifically the value of Pettitte and MR.

I my most competitive 12 team roto last year the top ERA was 3.283 and top WHIP was 1.186. In this situation I do not know how Pettitte can be given a positive dollar value?

Pitchers have two averaged cats (ERA and WHIP) compared to hitters who have only one (BA - assuming of course standard 5x5 and not some crazy saber league settings). So Tony Batista who only hurts you in one cat is less of a millstone than Pettitte who will drag you down in 2 cats.

MR who can vulture wins are the most valuable roto players and the hardest to find IMO. Remember the year that Koch got 44 saves, vultured 11 wins while giving decent ks, ERA and wins. That was sweet.

Somebody should try to dig up E-Styles ERAimp and WHIPimp article.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jan 05, 2005 1:02 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:Somebody should try to dig up E-Styles ERAimp and WHIPimp article.


Yup - easily one of the threads I learned the most from. I am a huge believer in the MR strategy, and Im pretty sure my education in it came from this thread - almost a must read. ;-D
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Postby Mustangs989 » Wed Jan 05, 2005 1:08 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Somebody should try to dig up E-Styles ERAimp and WHIPimp article.


Yup - easily one of the threads I learned the most from. I am a huge believer in the MR strategy, and Im pretty sure my education in it came from this thread - almost a must read. ;-D

It's in my favorites, some of the best information I've found at the Cafe..anyways here it is ;-D
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