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how do you rank outfielders?

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how do you rank outfielders?

Postby tlef316 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 9:43 pm

ok, i've had a problem doing this for the last few years. It's somehwat easy to rank the elite guys in the OF. Everyone knows that guys like vlad, beltran abreu and bonds belong at the top. Below that you have the 2nd tier guys like matsui, CArlos Lee, Damon ect. This isnt that hard. However, i have tons of trouble ranking the outfielders(and starting pitchers to some extent) once i get into the dozens of guys with similar value. How can anyone make a decision between the 20 diferent guys that have virtually the same stats. I just find my self staring at a spreadsheet for hours and finally just puting them in a half assed order and calling it a night.

What do you do to seperate the craig biggios, juacque jones', tori hunters, cliff floyds and raul ibanez's of the fantasy world? Im totally stumped and too frustrated to care. I guess when draft day rolls around ill just spin "the wheel of 4th outfielders" or something.
welcome home andy
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jan 03, 2005 10:44 pm

When you have a tier of players where the value is nearly identical let the other drafters decide for you. Assuming that you've already taken into account team offense, stadium, potential, injury history, personal preference, etc. than what you're left with is a tier of players where it doesn't matter who you get. So let them start to go off the board and then take one of the leftovers. That way you get the most value for your pick. Hope that made sense, lol. ;-)
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Postby tlef316 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 10:47 pm

Amazinz wrote:When you have a tier of players where the value is nearly identical let the other drafters decide for you. Assuming that you've already taken into account team offense, stadium, potential, injury history, personal preference, etc. than what you're left with is a tier of players where it doesn't matter who you get. So let them start to go off the board and then take one of the leftovers. That way you get the most value for your pick. Hope that made sense, lol. ;-)


yeah, makes sense. i just think id kick myself if i passed on a breakout player just because i wasnt sure who to pick
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jan 03, 2005 10:50 pm

Well for every breakout player I've called, I've missed just as many lol. Picking breakouts is a bit of a crapshoot.
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Holy Cow this is long!

Postby Grouperman941 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:03 pm

I don't claim to be an expert, but here's what I do. It applies to all players, though, not just the mega-deep outfield, but it helps most with outfield and comparing players across positions.

First, to make a sort of 'common denominator,' I figure out what target totals to shoot for in each category. I look at the last couple of years of my league's totals and then totally guess at a number that should get me third or so in each category. I divide that # by the number of lineup slots for hitters, 11, to give me a score that the average player needs to attain to reach our goal. For example, if the goal is 1100 RBIs, if each player got 100, I'd reach my goal.

I make that value worth 5 points and set ranges on a 10-point scale. I come up with a minimum that significantly contributes to my team (maybe 50 RBIs in the example). Less than that gets 0 points. 50-60 gets 1 point, >150 gets 10 points. I then do projections for each player on each team's end-of-year roster, projecting what range I expect the player to fall in for each cat. Excel sums them up, and I have what I call a base score.I will then add fraction of a point adjustments to try and break ties. Last year, I did positional scarcity and multi-position eligibility, and 'hunch' points where I think there is a good chance the player will kill my projection in a good way.

It works for me, giving me an 'objective' way of differentiating that is still grounded in my opinions and what I am trying to do with my team. I will alter them constantly until the draft as I read stuff.

FTR, I have T Hunter and J Jones both at 14 (along with 17 other players, 6 OF), and I can't think of any tie-break points that will change that. :-) Biggio is a 16, but I like him so I might have been generous. Ibanez is a 12, and Floyd an 8 (I projected low ABs, I think.)

The method might not be mathematically sound, but it works for me. My initial rankings are on par with most of the ones posted in the Cafe, which was my acid test.
Done slowly over a couple weeks in December, it is not that much work and I can easily compare players now.

I also track my projections vs cat goals during the draft so I'd take a guy with higher steal points if I was lower on steals than I wanted to be, for example.
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Postby El Gaupo » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:05 pm

Amazinz wrote:When you have a tier of players where the value is nearly identical let the other drafters decide for you. Assuming that you've already taken into account team offense, stadium, potential, injury history, personal preference, etc. than what you're left with is a tier of players where it doesn't matter who you get. So let them start to go off the board and then take one of the leftovers. That way you get the most value for your pick. Hope that made sense, lol. ;-)


What he said. ;-D
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Postby JDD » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:26 pm

Good advice so far.....

Remember two key stats for these types, the fourth outfielders:

Their age, and

Their recent track record of games played.
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Postby Dark Knight » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:27 pm

Use Yahoo's OF rankings, and then come play in my league :-D .
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:28 pm

Magic 8-balls and oijha boards. Plato and Aristoltle are big baseball fans.
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Postby mtarail » Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:27 am

I don't think I'll be able to say anything that amazinz didn't already say, but I'd re-emphasize looking at age, consistency, injury history when ranking guys.

There also is no shame in getting a fantasy mag and/or looking at the cheat sheets at the cafe or other places to see why people have players ranked the way they do. And if you disagree with the rankings, move that guy up in your rankings.
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