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Postby mtarail » Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:05 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:Mine look like this

Tejada
Young
Nomar
Jeter
Renteria
Furcal
Rollins
----------
after this, have fun, cuz you are probably screwed.


I agree with this, except I'd put O-Cab above Rollins. I'm expecting good things out of him this year, reunited with Vlad.

But Furcal is by far the best value pick out of this group.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:38 pm

I'm just happy that everyone has Young ranked so high because he's one of my keepers. ;-D
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Postby wake » Tue Jan 04, 2005 5:13 am

mtarail wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:But Furcal is by far the best value pick out of this group.


I agree. Last year the Braves didn't start stealing bases until they had a healthy team in the 2nd half. They had twice as many SB in the 2nd half as they did in the first and furcal had almost 3 times as many(1st-8, 2nd-21). Given that Cox stays with what worked so well at the end of last year I can easily see Furcal getting 40 SB next year. Also, without his injury at the beginning of last season he'd have numbers around 280-16-70-120-34. Given that Giles and Chipper were injured/slumping for a lot of the year I expect him to have improved numbers in 2005. Of course, a lot of this depends on what outfielder Atlanta gets to replace Drew.
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Postby RynMan » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:43 am

Heres how id fly:

Tejada
Young
Garciaparra
Jeter
Furcal
Rollins
Renteria
Guillen
Cabrera

then you get down to guys like Eckstein, Crosby, Upton (if the D-Rays wake up and use him there) maybe Izturis, K. Greene......ah man i need to go do my cheat sheet :-o

Sorry, no love for Guillen or Cabrera :,-(
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You guys are really missing the boat

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:25 am

A number of national sites have Renteria up as the 2nd best SS behind Tejada. I myself would put him 3rd behind Young.

I agree that we will not see 2003 #'s from him this year, but they certainly won't be 2004 #'s either. Can anyone really name a bad move (other than Ramiro Mendoza) that Epstein has made. I think it's safe to assume when Epstein says he's excited to get "one of the top 2 SS" in the leauge he's probably a bit more intelligent that those in here.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:50 am

RynMan wrote:Heres how id fly:

Tejada
Young
Garciaparra
Jeter
Furcal
Rollins
Renteria
Guillen
Cabrera

then you get down to guys like Eckstein, Crosby, Upton (if the D-Rays wake up and use him there) maybe Izturis, K. Greene......ah man i need to go do my cheat sheet :-o

Sorry, no love for Guillen or Cabrera :,-(


This is not to brag, but to establish some credentials so you will take my opinions seriously. Last season, it was I (as the projection's person for Rotoguys.com) who recommended everyone pass on Nomar and Renteria and instead take Tejada or Jeter.

For this season, I am strongly recommending you pass on the top three on this list because they are way overvalued and instead take Renteria fairly early or wait and wait then wait some more and take Matsui way, way later. My rationale for these players is as follows:

Tejada -- I loved Tejada last season and I still like him, but he is overvalued. To get him you would need to spend a first rounder on him and that is a waste.

Young -- Young's stats look better than they really are. He got nearly 700 AB's last season, which is incredible if you think about it. If he had 600 AB's, say, which is about normal, you are only talking about 18-19 HR's and 85 RBI's. Big deal. What this means is, from a day to day perspective, you are getting less pop than you think you are getting. Overvalued.

Nomar -- We told you last season he was slipping, so why is he still ranked so highly now that he is out of Fenway? Plus, he there is a high level of risk associated with him. Don't pay for reputation, just performance.

Renteria -- You guys are really missing the boat with this guy. He will go nuts hitting in Fenway and I am saying right now he will contend for the batting crown. He will also get you over 100 RBI's, approach 20 HR's, and score well over 100 runs. The runs part is easy. In St. Louis he had the like of Matheny hitting behind him. In Boston, it will be Nixon and Veritek. The only downside is he is unlikely to top 20 SB's. Regardless, I am betting on him to be the top rated SS when the season is over.

Matsui -- Great, great value. He'll hit .300 with 15 HR's or so and swipe over 20 bags. When everyone is down on a player is when you want to get him, and Matui certainly qualifies.

Guys, you can heed my advice or not, but I think it may be wise if you at least think about what I say, especially if you are one of those who cried last season about how Sosa was killing your team (Sosa was another big "Rotoguys.com avoid at all costs" special).
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YES

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:52 am

"Hear, Hear"
D-Mat, Schilling, Beckett, and Papelbon - Wow!
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Re: YES

Postby Erboes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:21 am

GreenMonsterGoon wrote:"Hear, Hear"


For the record, I hate the Red Sox with every cell in my body. I root against them as passionately as I root for my beloved Indians. With that said, Renteria was a fantastic signing and the Red Sox will surpass their offensive totals of '03 (and they will need every last run). On Rotoguys last season I wrote that the trade of Nomar was the move of the season by the way. Nomar was a drag on that team and they never would have won the series if he remained with them. I also stated that it would mark the demise of the Cubs when they got him. If they just trade for Cabrera they would have made the playoffs and perhaps made it to the Series. What an over rated punk that Nomar is.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:32 am

Good rundown Erbos. I completely agree that Renteria should score more runs. Truthfully I'm worried how Edgar will react to the Boston media. He has always been a really quiet guy and I'm not so sure he can get away with that in Boston. I think there will be an adjustment period and I wouldn't count on batting crown or 20 HR.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:45 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:Good rundown Erbos. I completely agree that Renteria should score more runs. Truthfully I'm worried how Edgar will react to the Boston media. He has always been a really quiet guy and I'm not so sure he can get away with that in Boston. I think there will be an adjustment period and I wouldn't count on batting crown or 20 HR.


You may have a point about the pressure if they signed him to bat third, but he's going to be down at what, seventh in the lineup? He was signed to be a complimentary player, just like he was for the Cardinals in '03 when he was the best SS in baseball (fantasy-wise).

Do not overlook the park effect on his numbers. Busch is neutral in just about every way and Renteria's power numbers were less there than on the road. Fenway is an extreme batting average helper and it made Nomar's reputation. Renteria's average will get a significant boost playing there, and if he was going to bounce back anyway (which I believe) it will only get better hitting in Fenway. You may be right about his power since Fenway is no longer a big help there, but Renteria never hit with much power at Busch compared to the road so I am expecting a slight boost. We shall see though.
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