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Player Draft Index: What do you think?

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Player Draft Index: What do you think?

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Sun Jan 02, 2005 8:25 pm

What is Player Draft Index™ (PDI)?
Player Draft Index™ is a representation of the value a player has in relation to where that player is drafted. The best way to interpret the information is to simply see if the PDI is a negative number or a positive number. A negative number means that a player is being overvalued, whereas a positive number means that a player is being undervalued and may represent a bargain relative to that player's draft position.

The higher or lower the PDI value, the more under/over-valued that player is. For example, if you see that has Derek Jeter has a PDI -0.09 and is the 28th player drafted on average, then he is being drafted almost exactly where he should be drafted because the value is close to zero, which represents fair valuation. On the other hand, if Tim Hudson is typically being drafted at 30 and Tim's PDI is a +0.47, then Tim Hudson is being slightly undervalued. This means that it you have the chance to draft Tim with the 30th overall pick you should take him, because you are getting a good value with that pick. PDI also lets you know when a player is being greatly overvalued. If Shawn Green has a PDI of -2.36 then the average draft position when he is going in is way too high. This information can be used to your advantage because it helps you avoid reaching for players that are popular, but don't offer the productivity to justify their draft position.


1. Carlos Beltran .02
2 Vladimir Guerrero .02
3 Albert Pujols .06
4 Alex Rodriguez .16
5 Alfonso Soriano .04
6 Bobby Abreu .02
7 Barry Bonds .58
8 Todd Helton -.05
9 Scott Rolen .09
10 Johan Santana -.20
11 Manny Ramirez .17
12 Miguel Tejada -.07
13 Ichiro Suzuki .02
14 Edgar Renteria .11
15 Gary Sheffield .20
16 Jason Schmidt .36
17 Carlos Delgado .76
18 Tim Hudson .09
19 Adrian Beltre .00
20 Eric Gagne .01


If you're interested further, check the link:

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/statist ... ompleted=0
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Postby gtech4life » Sun Jan 02, 2005 8:30 pm

interesting
do u know how they put their productivity into one number?
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Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Sun Jan 02, 2005 8:34 pm

21 Jim Thome 0.03
22 Bret Boone 0.34
23 Randy Johnson -.75
24 Eric Chavez .26
25 Juan Pierre .04
26 Derek Jeter -.12
27 Pedro Martinez -.03
28 Magglio Ordonez .61
29 Vernon Wells .26
30 Curt Schilling .07
31 Nomar Garciaparra.09
32 Carlos Lee .45
33 Marcus Giles .05
34 Aubrey Huff .17
35 Mark Prior -.78
36 Carl Crawford -.17
37 Keith Foulke .35
38 Hank Blalock .00
39 Aramis Ramirez -.17
40 Chipper Jones .52
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hmmmm

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Sun Jan 02, 2005 8:36 pm

I can't find their conversions.....I'll keep looking
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41-60

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Sun Jan 02, 2005 8:42 pm

41 Rafeal Furcal .17
42 Kerry Wood -.14
43 Billy Wagner .23
44 Orlando Cabrera .26
45 Jeff Kent -.14
46 Scott Podsednik .05
47 Richie Sexson .07
48 Jorge Posada .35
49 Mariano Rivera .00
50 Melvin Mora .00
51 Adam Dunn -.17
52 Roy Oswalt .03
53 Derrek Lee .02
54 Mike Lowell .24
55 Shawn Green .17
56 David Ortiz .17
57 Jim Edmonds -.07
58 Joe Nathan .09
59 Ben Sheets -.02
60 Brian Giles .34
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Postby BGbootha » Sun Jan 02, 2005 8:44 pm

gtech4life wrote:interesting
do u know how they put their productivity into one number?


Hmm. this is pretty interesting, but I think this is the most important question to ask.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:25 pm

I assume they are using their own projections for each player, which brings up an interesting point: what if somebody projects Shawn Green to return to his more dominant form? Then they would be getting good value out of a pick at the same position. Projections are mostly incorrect, so who's to say one projection is better than another. People may disagree on projections, but thats part of what makes fantasy interesting. This thing would be more useful, I think, if you could plug your own projections into the formula to get a PDI for your own valuation of players
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Postby JDD » Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:57 am

Nope, the best question to ask is this....

How many drafts were run before determining if a player was going too high or two low?
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Postby sockeye » Wed Jan 05, 2005 3:22 am

This is pretty interesting, and I'll enjoy applying it to my league past draft.

Its a little sketchy if they're using player projections for 2005, tho - they're evaluating how well a pool of people "agree" with their projections, but it says nothing about how accurate their own evaluation yardstick is. Somewhat analagous to using unvalidated data to validate another data set. As they say about models, "garbage in, garbage out."

Far better to apply to this to a historic dataset and see whether there are a few players that are consistently overvalued each year.
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Postby trevisc » Wed Jan 05, 2005 9:13 am

Good link and interesting read..
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