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Postby West » Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:10 pm

back to arod- i think that erboes has a great point that arod is overrated. i always thought that arod's subpar season was due largely to the pressure of playing in new york, but when you look at his road numbers from texas, it really makes sense. as for stolen bases, i don't see him topping 20 this year, which puts him just above or even with rolen in the player rankings. top 15 player for sure, and not a stretch to put him in the top 10 either, but i surely will move him out of my top 3 after looking at it from this perspective.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:11 pm

West wrote:back to arod- i think that erboes has a great point that arod is overrated. i always thought that arod's subpar season was due largely to the pressure of playing in new york, but when you look at his road numbers from texas, it really makes sense. as for stolen bases, i don't see him topping 20 this year, which puts him just above or even with rolen in the player rankings. top 15 player for sure, and not a stretch to put him in the top 10 either, but i surely will move him out of my top 3 after looking at it from this perspective.


why do you see his sb dropping?
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Postby West » Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:33 pm

it's just a hunch of mine, i don't see a huge drop, i just am thinking he'll steal about 10 fewer than last season. i think if giambi comes back to hit well in the #4 spot then torre will not run arod as much (assuming arod will be hitting 3rd?) but your guess is as good as mine, i could be wrong.
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Postby West » Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:35 pm

it's just a hunch of mine, i don't see a huge drop, i just am thinking he'll steal about 10 fewer than last season. i think if giambi comes back to hit well in the #4 spot then torre will not run arod as much (assuming arod will be hitting 3rd?) but your guess is as good as mine, i could be wrong.
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Postby blankman » Tue Jan 04, 2005 3:48 pm

West wrote:it's just a hunch of mine, i don't see a huge drop, i just am thinking he'll steal about 10 fewer than last season. i think if giambi comes back to hit well in the #4 spot then torre will not run arod as much (assuming arod will be hitting 3rd?) but your guess is as good as mine, i could be wrong.


Giambi will absolutely not be hitting 4th, especially not in your scenario. With Alex hitting 3rd, that puts Gary Sheffield 4th, followed by Matsui. Bernie then Posada are likely next, leaving Giambi likely to bat 8th. IF he produces like he used to, I can still only see him hitting 6th after Matsui at this point.

On the topic though, I personally don't think Alex's SB will fall off dramatically, but my prediction is about 22. (And yes I did just pull that number out of nowhere) ;-)
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Postby West » Tue Jan 04, 2005 4:47 pm

yeah you're right, who knows how healthy giambi will be. it seems like we're all putting alex between 20-30 sb. judging by his career road numbers and his performance last year, it looks like arod has a good chance of duplicating last years numbers, which still puts him somewhere between the top 10-20 players. i know that my top 25 list needs an edit. can anyone argue for arod in the top 5?
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