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Postby so0perspam » Tue Jan 04, 2005 2:48 am

wrveres wrote:West .. Welcome to the cafe ... ;-D


I'll second that .... we're good now. :-) I guess I kind of overreacted, just because I hear that stuff here regularly and am really getting sick of it. Welcome to the Cafe though, make yourself comfortable. :-]
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:05 am

so0perspam wrote: I guess I kind of overreacted


You think? :-D
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Guys

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:27 am

Go get a Bonds Thread and stop hijacking my Top 25 Rankings
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Postby Erboes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:13 am

Back to the subject at hand (damn hijackers!), you guys really need to explain to me why A-Rod is consistently ranked so highly. Here is my thinking on him:

1) If you look at his road numbers while playing in Texas they are very similar to what he put up in a full season as a Yankee. In other words, take away his inflated numbers while playing in Texas and what you saw from him last season is what you are likely to get. This is not to say he cannot have a better season than last season, but to expect him to approach his numbers he put up in Texas is a pipedream.

2) His value last season was $32, which put him in the 15-20 range overall. If he had his normal SB totals of recent years (15-18), his overall value would have plummeted to about $28. Meaning he would have been, at best, a top 30 player.

For him to be a top three player like most of you think he is, he will have to hit .300 again with 50 HR's while maintaining his 28 SB level. Do you guys really think he can achieve this while hitting in a ballpark that works against his natural swing? Plus, he isn't at SS anymore, where his numbers were special. Now, he is just one of a crowd over at 3b. What gets me is, that so called "expert" mock draft posted on here had him going first over all. Now, that's crazy.
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Hmnmm

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:19 am

Some of what you point out resonates, but isn't there too long of a history of productivity to pass? The #'s about away from Texas are valuable, but what about season totals. His this year were pretty tough and surely put him in at least the top 10.
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Re: Hmnmm

Postby Erboes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:34 am

GreenMonsterGoon wrote:Some of what you point out resonates, but isn't there too long of a history of productivity to pass? The #'s about away from Texas are valuable, but what about season totals. His this year were pretty tough and surely put him in at least the top 10.


Let me ask you this then, would you not find it prudent to downgrade Helton if he was traded from Colorado and out of Coors' field? Of course you would. I took a lot of heat last season from subscribers with A-Rod's projections because I had them pretty damn close to what his final numbers were (I was off on the SB's), except I thought he would drive in more runs. But in both average and HR's I was almost dead on. Now that he has a season under his belt in NY I am even more certain that the guy never will again approach his numbers he put up in Texas. I do believe he will be better next season, but I think the ceiling on him now is a .290 average with 40 HR's, give or take, but what he improves on in these stats he is likely to lose with a drop in SB's. We have him at about 15th overall and that is with a better offensive season, and anything higher and I think those who take him will be disappointed.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jan 04, 2005 11:23 am

I agree with your assessment of A-Rod's numbers but I feel that you are unfairly discounting his SB. Only Ryan Freel has a comparable ability to put out those kinds of SB numbers at 3B and nobody can do it with that kind of power and average. I also see no reason for the SB numbers to drop (maybe if the Yankees get Beltran A-Rod may run less but we would have to see what the lineup looks like first).

I see a slight increase in A-Rod's numbers with a significant boost in runs. The SBs are the wild card. I see no reason right now for them to go down. Even at 3B .300-40-110-125-25 is very valuable. This flirts with top ten in standard 5x5.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 11:44 am

Mookie4ever wrote:I agree with your assessment of A-Rod's numbers but I feel that you are unfairly discounting his SB. Only Ryan Freel has a comparable ability to put out those kinds of SB numbers at 3B and nobody can do it with that kind of power and average. I also see no reason for the SB numbers to drop (maybe if the Yankees get Beltran A-Rod may run less but we would have to see what the lineup looks like first).

I see a slight increase in A-Rod's numbers with a significant boost in runs. The SBs are the wild card. I see no reason right now for them to go down. Even at 3B .300-40-110-125-25 is very valuable. This flirts with top ten in standard 5x5.


I can understand your optimism, Mookie, although I do not agree with it. But the key point you made is precisely my point "This flirts with top ten standard in 5x5". Top ten does not equal top three, and even if you are right with your rosey scenario -- which is possible -- he is still not worth a top three pick. In short, he is overvalued.

This is my reasoning with his SB's. His total last season was the highest he has had since '98 in Seattle. He has average in the seasons following until last season 16. Granted, the Yankees run a bit more than Texas, but 80% more? I just don't like betting on a blip in SB's repeating itself, which is why I was not as high on Renteria last season as most others. I can see 20, but I can also see less than 15. Like I said about Beltran for next season, where's the motivation? His totals last season were spurred on equal parts making a good impression in NY and compensating for his poor start with the bat. Beltran's was to get to 40/40 in order to get a crazy contract. SB's, unlike every other stat, rests mostly on desire. If your desire lessons so do your totals, especially when your team doesn't need you to do it. But, hey, I have been wrong before.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:01 pm

Erboes wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:I agree with your assessment of A-Rod's numbers but I feel that you are unfairly discounting his SB. Only Ryan Freel has a comparable ability to put out those kinds of SB numbers at 3B and nobody can do it with that kind of power and average. I also see no reason for the SB numbers to drop (maybe if the Yankees get Beltran A-Rod may run less but we would have to see what the lineup looks like first).

I see a slight increase in A-Rod's numbers with a significant boost in runs. The SBs are the wild card. I see no reason right now for them to go down. Even at 3B .300-40-110-125-25 is very valuable. This flirts with top ten in standard 5x5.


I can understand your optimism, Mookie, although I do not agree with it. But the key point you made is precisely my point "This flirts with top ten standard in 5x5". Top ten does not equal top three, and even if you are right with your rosey scenario -- which is possible -- he is still not worth a top three pick. In short, he is overvalued.

This is my reasoning with his SB's. His total last season was the highest he has had since '98 in Seattle. He has average in the seasons following until last season 16. Granted, the Yankees run a bit more than Texas, but 80% more? I just don't like betting on a blip in SB's repeating itself, which is why I was not as high on Renteria last season as most others. I can see 20, but I can also see less than 15. Like I said about Beltran for next season, where's the motivation? His totals last season were spurred on equal parts making a good impression in NY and compensating for his poor start with the bat. Beltran's was to get to 40/40 in order to get a crazy contract. SB's, unlike every other stat, rests mostly on desire. If your desire lessons so do your totals, especially when your team doesn't need you to do it. But, hey, I have been wrong before.


I hope that you will agree with me that with A-Rod his number of SBs are more a question or opportunity rather than ability. He has the ability to steal 50, the only question is whether he is placed in a basestealing situation enough and whether he gets the green light.

Torre has shown that he will give A-Rod the green light that he did not get in Texas. His role in Texas was to drive in runs more so than to score them. Even though he hit clean up a lot last year, the Yankees also put him in a lot of base stealing situations and let him assume a similar role to the one that he had in Seattle in '98 on a team with Griffey and Edgar.

In short, I don't see this as a "blip" but A-Rod being put in a different situation and one that doesn't seem likely to change.
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Actually

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:15 pm

I was just playing around with this excel formula I created and it had AROD significantly lower than the top hitters. But it also had Beltran lower than you would have guessed. The formula had:

1: Vladimar
2: Pujols
3: Abreu
4. RJ
5: Santana
6: Beltran
7: Manny
8: Bonds (although the formula doesn't count steroids)
9: Tejada
10: Beltre

Never though I would rank players like that, but wow
Last edited by GreenMonsterGoon on Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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