Winning your league with middle round draft valuations...

[wkelly91]

I have often heard that leagues are won in the middle rounds of the draft, I believe that. I was in my first 5 x 5 league this past year and we are keeping 10 players. I decided to do a study (non-scientific) on where players were drafted before the season, and how they eventually produced.

I rated players as A-Top producer, B-above average producer, C-average producer (waiver wire material), D-Non producer. I then looked at where the producers were drafted based on position.

Here are the results:


Catchers
Rounds 11-15 A-0, B-2, C-1, D-0....66.7% (A or B)
Rounds 16-20 A-0, B-0, C-2, D-2.....0.0%
Rounds 21-25 A-1, B-0, C-0, D-0...100.0%
Rounds 26-30 A-0, B-1, C-2, D-2....20.0%

1B
Rounds 11-15 A-1, B-2, C-2, D-1....50.0%
Rounds 16-20 A-0, B-0, C-3, D-2.....0.0%
Rounds 21-25 A-1, B-0, C-1, D-2....25.0%
Rounds 26-30 A-1, B-0, C-3, D-1....20.0%

2B
Rounds 11-15 A-0, B-1, C-0, D-0....100.0%
Rounds 16-20 A-1, B-0, C-0, D-1.....50.0%
Rounds 21-25 A-0, B-0, C-2, D-0......0.0%
Rounds 26-30 A-0, B-0, C-1, D-4......0.0%

SS
Rounds 11-15 A-0, B-0, C-0, D-0......0.0%
Rounds 16-20 A-0, B-0, C-2, D-1......0.0%
Rounds 21-25 A-0, B-0, C-4, D-0......0.0%
Rounds 26-30 A-0, B-0, C-1, D-2......0.0%

3B
Rounds 11-15 A-0, B-0, C-2, D-0......0.0%
Rounds 16-20 A-2, B-0, C-2, D-0....50.0%
Rounds 21-25 A-0, B-0, C-2, D-2......0.0%
Rounds 26-30 A-0, B-1, C-1, D-3....20.0%

OF
Rounds 11-15 A-3, B-1, C-11, D-6...19.0%
Rounds 16-20 A-3, B-4, C-4, D-7.....26.7%
Rounds 21-25 A-1, B-0, C-7, D-2.....10.0%
Rounds 26-30 A-0, B-2, C-6, D-5.....15.4%

SP
Rounds 11-15 A-3, B-10, C-3, D-5....61.9%
Rounds 16-20 A-0, B-4, C-6, D-5......26.7%
Rounds 21-25 A-3, B-4, C-9, D-7......30.4%
Rounds 26-30 A-1, B-1, C-6, D-8......12.5%

RP
Rounds 11-15 A-3, B-1, C-2, D-3.....44.4%
Rounds 16-20 A-1, B-2, C-3, D-3.....33.3%
Rounds 21-25 A-1, B-1, C-1, D-8.....18.2%
Rounds 26-30 A-0, B-0, C-1, D-7......0.0%

What is obvious to me:

1) You can get high quality Starters late in the draft.
2) There are few quality position players after round 20.

Any of you have similar observations?

[GreenMonsterGoon]

I always feel like barring injuries, the top is relatively even across the board. It is where true projections come in that we start to find unique values.

I always concentrate on rating those middle round players. You're hunch is quite accurate.

[reiser]

I always feel like barring injuries, the top is relatively even across the board. It is where true projections come in that we start to find unique values.

I always concentrate on rating those middle round players. You're hunch is quite accurate.

i agree-assuming everyone has a fairly even split of 1-10 breakouts and busts, what you get after 10 goes a long way towards your depth. for instance, last year I drafted Loretta as my 2B backup, and that put me in an excellent trading position.

[GreenMonsterGoon]

I'm assuming all is mostly equal, albeit for the few morons who draft guys way out of whack.

[JDD]

Interesting...

In short, here is the deal....

In rounds 12-20, you know you are doing really well in your drafts if you are taking starting pitchers and the healthy outfielders who can hit.

Look at the mock drafts....

Find the best hitter in each individual round in rounds 12-20.

Are they on the better drafted teams?

[RAmst23]

Really cool run-down, I've thought that too. In most leagues everyone knows the all-stars, some players might get picked a little too high due to being overrated, but generally everyone picks ok. Research pays off in the middle rounds, and late rounds are often larger risks.

[jonnyblack]

Nice post Wkelly. I beleive the midround theory as well, but its nice to see the way you put it in hard numbers. Good Job!!!