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Postby trevisc » Thu Dec 30, 2004 11:22 pm

Maddux
Graves
Pettite
Baez
BJ Ryan
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Postby tlef316 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 11:30 pm

BJ RYan has teriffic stuff, but i dont think he is in the right situation to be an elite closer. First time in the roll, weak SP staff, bad ball park, tons of games against the yanks and sox. If the orioles really bash, he could be good for 30 saves with a good K ratio, but i cant see him getting enough ops to be a top option. A solid 2nd closer or great 3rd closer if you are in a shallow league.

Im not a huge madux fan, but he is the best option out of the that group. He wont throw tons of innings or get alot of K's, but he wont hurt you and could pick up 15 wins AGAIN playing for the cubs
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Dec 31, 2004 1:11 am

tlef316 wrote:BJ RYan has teriffic stuff, but i dont think he is in the right situation to be an elite closer. First time in the roll, weak SP staff, bad ball park, tons of games against the yanks and sox. If the orioles really bash, he could be good for 30 saves with a good K ratio, but i cant see him getting enough ops to be a top option. A solid 2nd closer or great 3rd closer if you are in a shallow league.

Im not a huge madux fan, but he is the best option out of the that group. He wont throw tons of innings or get alot of K's, but he wont hurt you and could pick up 15 wins AGAIN playing for the cubs


There's really not that much correlation between being on a good team and save opportunities (good teams are in more blow-outs, so that offsets the higher win totals). Last year 4 of the top ten teams in save opportunities were Cincy (#1 in save opps), Florida (#3), Colorado (#7) and Pittsburgh (#8). In addition, Camden Yards has generally been a pitcher's park, not a hitter's park (although last year they tweaked the playing field again and it played in favor of offense).

Ryan is a HUGE sleeper this year. If the Orioles do let him close, he's almost a guaranteed 35 saves, with 40+ easily within reach. Look at his numbers. The only reliever who came close to him last year was K-Rod. And that wasn't a fluke.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Fri Dec 31, 2004 3:27 am

Maddox - would be my first choice bye far. The rest in order of preferance.

Andy Pettitte - That it is a presumably fully recovered and healthy Andy Pettitte. His 2001-2003 season averages where 181.3INN 16W 8L 147K's 41BBI 198HA 3.822ERA and a 1.318WHIP. He was pretty much slightly above or below those season average categories last year before getting hurt. He doesnt have good enough stuff to overwhelm batters, but his control is a little above average. He isnt a 1st tier SP, but is easily in the middle or close to the top of 2nd tier fantasy pitchers.

Baez - Decent numbers across the board. As a reliever his numbers have always helped in a few categories while not hurting in any. Just dont let him start a game, lol, then it gets ugly. He is an adequate 2nd closer.

Graves - Last year's great 1st half aside he is around the bottom of 2nd tier closers.

Ryan - Could haunt me placeing him this low with that great K/INN rate. But except for doing well in a few meaningless late season games last year he has pretty much just been a Lefty-Specialist. I'll take a wait and see aproach with him as the every day closer.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Dec 31, 2004 10:33 am

Bukoski77 wrote:Andy Pettitte - That it is a presumably fully recovered and healthy Andy Pettitte. His 2001-2003 season averages where 181.3INN 16W 8L 147K's 41BBI 198HA 3.822ERA and a 1.318WHIP. He was pretty much slightly above or below those season average categories last year before getting hurt. He doesnt have good enough stuff to overwhelm batters, but his control is a little above average. He isnt a 1st tier SP, but is easily in the middle or close to the top of 2nd tier fantasy pitchers.


I argue that he actually does hurt you more than help you, so in terms of tiers, he wouldnt be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. I can see drafting him in the final few rds for his Wins, but even those are risky. First you have to look at his %s - when you have a pitcher hovering around 4 ERA you have to consider that actually subtracting from your total ERA - consider that the league will be won by someone sporting around 3.5 ERA. Same for WHIP - a 1.3 WHIP actually hurts you, and Pettitte has only been under that 1.3 WHIP over a full season once - 1997 (the fluke yr). His Ks are average for fantasy pitchers - so we'll call that neutral. Now, using my very unscientific method, what you are looking at is a high name recognition SP who helps in one cat, is neutral in one cat, and hurts you in two cats.

Ill take a solid MR for less money than the price Pettitte carries, and I'll be much better off. I can see spot starting Pettitte as my 5th or 6th starter.
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Postby RugbyD » Fri Dec 31, 2004 10:44 am

Bukoski77 wrote:Ryan - Could haunt me placeing him this low with that great K/INN rate. But except for doing well in a few meaningless late season games last year he has pretty much just been a Lefty-Specialist. I'll take a wait and see aproach with him as the every day closer.


2004
Ryan
Lefty OPSA - .324
Right OPSA - .658
Total OPSA - .549

Lidge
Lefty OPSA - .546
Right OPSA - .537
Total OPSA - .542

Ryan's got the stuff, even if he faces rightys. He's a must draft even if he doesn't close.
TennCare rocks!!!!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Dec 31, 2004 12:48 pm

Bukoski77 wrote:Ryan - Could haunt me placeing him this low with that great K/INN rate. But except for doing well in a few meaningless late season games last year he has pretty much just been a Lefty-Specialist. I'll take a wait and see aproach with him as the every day closer.


Over the last three years, righties have almost 500 PAs against Ryan. Collectively, they've batted .265/.354/.357 (just 25 extra base hits in nearly 500 PAs!) Each year that right handed OPS has droped (784, 745, 658). I think BJ has figured out righties, not that he ever struggled to much against them.

The only ? is whether the Orioles give him the rock.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Dec 31, 2004 3:28 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Bukoski77 wrote:Andy Pettitte - That it is a presumably fully recovered and healthy Andy Pettitte. His 2001-2003 season averages where 181.3INN 16W 8L 147K's 41BBI 198HA 3.822ERA and a 1.318WHIP. He was pretty much slightly above or below those season average categories last year before getting hurt. He doesnt have good enough stuff to overwhelm batters, but his control is a little above average. He isnt a 1st tier SP, but is easily in the middle or close to the top of 2nd tier fantasy pitchers.


I argue that he actually does hurt you more than help you, so in terms of tiers, he wouldnt be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. I can see drafting him in the final few rds for his Wins, but even those are risky. First you have to look at his %s - when you have a pitcher hovering around 4 ERA you have to consider that actually subtracting from your total ERA - consider that the league will be won by someone sporting around 3.5 ERA. Same for WHIP - a 1.3 WHIP actually hurts you, and Pettitte has only been under that 1.3 WHIP over a full season once - 1997 (the fluke yr). His Ks are average for fantasy pitchers - so we'll call that neutral. Now, using my very unscientific method, what you are looking at is a high name recognition SP who helps in one cat, is neutral in one cat, and hurts you in two cats.

Ill take a solid MR for less money than the price Pettitte carries, and I'll be much better off. I can see spot starting Pettitte as my 5th or 6th starter.



Pettitte has never been a good WHIP pitcher and has always been overrated. However, you also have to factor in that ERA should in theory drop with the movement to the NL. And the Kd9 which had moved up in recent years should also continue that trend to the NL. The problem is it is hard to determne anything with his 04 numbers due to the injury as he was obviously pitching hurt for some games.
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