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Tony Armas Jr.

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Tony Armas Jr.

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:49 pm

What should we expect from Armas this yr?
Is he going to ace the Nationals staff?
Is he fully recovered from his injuries?
What type of projections do you have or have seen for him?

any help would be appreciated.
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Postby perlick29 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:53 pm

Just posted about this in another topic.

I really think Armas will be very good this year. As long as he stays in Washington which he will because he was tendered he should finally become the ace we've all thought he could be. Playing at RFK is a blessing in disguise. All football parks I can think of are major pitcher's parks and judging from the dimensions I've heard about this one, it should be no different.

15+ win season from him with an ERA in the lower 3's I'd say 3.37 and a 1.26 WHIP.

Anybody else?
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Postby RugbyD » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:54 pm

No more than a #5 right now in a 12-team. Spring training may change that. If there are any projections, I wouldn't put any faith in them. To much is unknown and unpredictable about him to be all that confident.
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Postby XTSilver » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:55 pm

Has great stuff but simply can't stay healthy. No better than a late round pick with upside.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:01 pm

perlick29 wrote:15+ win season from him with an ERA in the lower 3's I'd say 3.37 and a 1.26 WHIP.

Anybody else?


That ERA seems very optimistic considering he has never been under 4 in a season he pitched more than 15 games. He never had a WHIP under 1.3 either.

I like the reasoning about RFK - great point.

I like him, dont get me wrong, Im even pretty optimistic about his health - Im a strong believer that surgeries fix problems.

If I had to throw a projection out there I would think somewhere along 190 IP - 15 W - 3.9 ERA - 1.29 WHIP - 150K
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Postby perlick29 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:06 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
perlick29 wrote:15+ win season from him with an ERA in the lower 3's I'd say 3.37 and a 1.26 WHIP.

Anybody else?


That ERA seems very optimistic considering he has never been under 4 in a season he pitched more than 15 games. He never had a WHIP under 1.3 either.

I like the reasoning about RFK - great point.

I like him, dont get me wrong, Im even pretty optimistic about his health - Im a strong believer that surgeries fix problems.

If I had to throw a projection out there I would think somewhere along 190 IP - 15 W - 3.9 ERA - 1.29 WHIP - 150K


Ok, I like those, the park factor could drive the numbers somewhere in the middle of our numbers leaning probably towards you.

So reallistically 3.8 era and a 1.3 whip sounds right.
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:04 pm

Tony Armas acted like a real headcase last year. I watched a lot of his starts live, and he would ease up when he had a lead and give up when was getting hit hard. Frank Robinson was furious with him on multiple occations.

Armas went from being one of my favorite keeper breakout arms to someone that I will hardly take a flier on.
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Postby trevisc » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:12 pm

i'm staying away. I bet he has a mid 4 era and maybe 10 wins if lucky.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:12 pm

shortsavage wrote:Tony Armas acted like a real headcase last year. I watched a lot of his starts live, and he would ease up when he had a lead and give up when was getting hit hard. Frank Robinson was furious with him on multiple occations.

Armas went from being one of my favorite keeper breakout arms to someone that I will hardly take a flier on.


great insight - thanks. Thats definitely something to watch. BTW - where is Armas from? Would a change in scenery affect his mental makeup you think?
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Thu Dec 30, 2004 6:20 pm

he's from venezuela, but i'm not sure what that means. all i know is that venezuelans are loud. :-b no disrespect ;-)

a change of scenery could help him, but i think his biggest problem is to stay healthy. he has never had a season with and ERA lower than 4, well, 2003 he had a 2.61ERA, but he only had 5 starts.

he's a sleeper IMO. after a good 2002 season a lot of people were high on him and became disappointed with his injury in 2003. then 2004 he had more health issues, so i think people will try to stay away from him and he might end up being a good late rounds pick for those who didn't forget about armas.

me...i'll prolly be part of those who stay away, but that might change... :-b
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