Hmmm, where's Erboes when you need him?
I'm skeptical of the guy (Carpenter, not Erboes. Well, maybe a little bit skeptical of Erboes too
). There's simply way too many red flags.
Last year was the first year his ERA was ever below 4.
Last year was only the second his WHIP was below 1.4 (1998: 1.36).
High wins total inflates his value (though the Cardinals should still get him the wins).
High profile team, and a breakout season.
I'm not going to write him off, and it's entirely possible that last year he finally figured it out and will put it all together. He did improve his BB/IP ratio and his BB/K ratio, which is a good sign. But look at his career numbers - mediocre at best. Odds are that his numbers move closer to his career numbers, as opposed to further improvement. Look for a rise in ERA and WHIP. Ks and wins will probably stay about the same.
Personally, I'm staying away. Given his high profile on a World Series and popular team, he's very likely to be drafted well ahead of where his value dictates. There will be better, cheaper options available later in the draft.