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chris carpenter

Postby mgoody6634 » Wed Dec 29, 2004 11:58 am

what do you expect from him next year? He put up some great numbers in 2004! He'll have the pressure of being the staff ace off of him with mulder in town, but he'll still have that big time offense and defense behind him...do you see a drop, a rise, or a steadiness in his numbers?
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Postby flbtank » Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:08 pm

He's one of the guys I'm unsure of. Interested to see other peoples input.
Last edited by flbtank on Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:15 pm

This is one guy that you really have to wait for spring training. He has always had a truck-load of nagging injuries but if he comes into spring training healthy and does ok in the spring, I would put him down for similar, maybe even slightly higher, numbers for next year.
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Postby trevisc » Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:21 pm

I expect him to start about 18 games and have a 4.50 era with 6-7 wins. Of course he'll be injured 2-3 times throughout the season.

:-t
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:24 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:This is one guy that you really have to wait for spring training. He has always had a truck-load of nagging injuries but if he comes into spring training healthy and does ok in the spring, I would put him down for similar, maybe even slightly higher, numbers for next year.
I agree that if he is healthy he will have comparable numbers to last year. The question with Carpenter is always "Is he healthy?”
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Wed Dec 29, 2004 1:11 pm

his career whip is a quite a bit higher than 2004 so that number could trend upward to maybe 1.20-1.25. i expect an era in the mid to upper 3s. strikeout rate should be about the same. should have a healthy level of wins if makes his starts.

i think he will be fairly healthy in 05. supposedly he was healthy enough to start in the world series but they didnt add him to the roster because they thought he would be too rusty.
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Postby Registered_Guest » Thu Dec 30, 2004 5:12 am

I agree it's too early to tell. If healthy, I'd expect an ERA in the mid 3's.
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Postby eftda » Thu Dec 30, 2004 1:53 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:This is one guy that you really have to wait for spring training. He has always had a truck-load of nagging injuries but if he comes into spring training healthy and does ok in the spring, I would put him down for similar, maybe even slightly higher, numbers for next year.
I agree that if he is healthy he will have comparable numbers to last year. The question with Carpenter is always "Is he healthy?”


I wont be drafting him, but I will keep a close eye on him. He help my teams through so rough pitching droughts last year :-°
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Thu Dec 30, 2004 7:24 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:his career whip is a quite a bit higher than 2004 so that number could trend upward to maybe 1.20-1.25. i expect an era in the mid to upper 3s. strikeout rate should be about the same. should have a healthy level of wins if makes his starts.

i think he will be fairly healthy in 05. supposedly he was healthy enough to start in the world series but they didnt add him to the roster because they thought he would be too rusty.


Yep, that's about where I stand on him for '05. ;-D
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Postby ramble2 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 11:35 pm

Hmmm, where's Erboes when you need him?

I'm skeptical of the guy (Carpenter, not Erboes. Well, maybe a little bit skeptical of Erboes too :-D ). There's simply way too many red flags.

Last year was the first year his ERA was ever below 4.
Last year was only the second his WHIP was below 1.4 (1998: 1.36).
High wins total inflates his value (though the Cardinals should still get him the wins).
High profile team, and a breakout season.

I'm not going to write him off, and it's entirely possible that last year he finally figured it out and will put it all together. He did improve his BB/IP ratio and his BB/K ratio, which is a good sign. But look at his career numbers - mediocre at best. Odds are that his numbers move closer to his career numbers, as opposed to further improvement. Look for a rise in ERA and WHIP. Ks and wins will probably stay about the same.

Personally, I'm staying away. Given his high profile on a World Series and popular team, he's very likely to be drafted well ahead of where his value dictates. There will be better, cheaper options available later in the draft.
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